Hot or Not: Week 5

HOT 

Mark Sanchez v. NE 3
It's hard to start someone who looked so dirty in Week 4, someone who's incompetence literally made you better off starting Kurt Warner at QB than Sanchez. But the Ravens D really is that good. And the Patriots secondary really is that bad. Coach Ryan said the Jets will "ground and pound" this week, but what a stupid week to start that new strategy. The Pats are giving up yards on the ground, but even more through the air. What has Shonn Greene showed you this season to make you think he's the answer to the Jets struggles? I'm sure Greene will get a ton of carries in the first quarter to prove that Ryan is a man of his word, and to keep Tom Brady off the field. But that won't last; they'll have to throw to keep up - maybe some nice playaction passes after Greene has bumbled his way to a 3rd and 6. I wouldn't be surprised to see my Least Valuable Player, Plaxico Burress, find the endzone in an absolute mismatch against the small Pats corners.

Kevin Kolb v. MIN 14
Kolb is coming off a very disappointing Week 4 effort. His fantasy production has actually declined in every week this season. He's been making effective use of Larry Fitzgerald, but that's about all. This week, I expect him to bounce back against a weak Vikings secondary that will be missing their top CB Antoine Winfield. If you're missing Tony Romo this week, Kolb will prove to be the perfect bye week replacement.  

Joseph Addai v. KC 4
After Addai's impressive day against the Steelers in Week 3, there was hope that Addai could become a fantasy starter once again. Then he delivered a vintage dud against the Bucs last week. Addai seems especially matchup sensitive, and this is a good one. I expect the Colts to play hungry for their first win, and I think they get it with Addai on the ground. Painter may be a slight upgrade over Kerry Collins, but the Colts don't want to entrust the whole game in Painter's arm, so look for plenty of carries for Addai. 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley v. NYJ 6
We saw the Pats move to a more balanced attack last week, with more action for their RBs. I expect that to continue against a Jets D that has been much easier to run on than pass on so far. With Danny Woodhead hobbled, The Law Firm and The Talented Mr. Ridley could repeat last week's performances: double digit carries for both with Green-Ellis getting the edge, and both could score. Look for Green-Ellis to pound it up the middle and Ridley to catch some screen passes.  

Isaac Redman v. TEN 18
This is not an easy matchup. But the simple fact is that Redman is all they have this weekend. Mewelde Moore is out and Mendenhall is likely out too. (He's technically a gametime decision, but fortunately he plays in an early game so be sure to check the inactives.) With Big Ben banged up, the Steelers will be even more focused on getting their run game going. In these bye weeks, Redman is a must-start. 

Mario Manningham v. SEA 20
After a very slow start to the season and the emergence of Victor Cruz, I've seen Manningham dropped in 2 leagues. He needs to be owned and he should be started this week. Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride said yesterday that Manningham has not lost his starting WR2 job. Cruz doesn't scare me much. In these bye weeks, don't be afraid to start the talented Manningham.

Santonio Holmes v. NE 1
I put him here last week and he let me down. To be fair, my argument was that because he complained, the Jets would force him the ball, and he did get 12 targets. If he gets 12 targets against the Pats weak secondary, Holmes will finally have a nice fantasy day. 

Sidney Rice v. NYG 15
Since his return to action, Rice has put together two very solid games. He is so talented that he can succeed even with a guy named Tarvaris throwing him the ball. 

Michael Crabtree v. TB 8
He was in our Waiver Wire column this week because of two decent games in a row. (He should have had a TD in Week 3, but-for his toe stepping out of bounds.) Tampa Bay has been easier to pass on than run on, and Crabtree should lead the team in targets. It's hard to trust anyone catching balls from Alex Smith, but Crabby could get you 80 yards or so.   

Greg Olsen v. NO 4
Unfortunately, it looks like Jeremy Shockey will play in Week 5, but he won't take too many targets away from Olsen. Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, and Steve Smith are becoming a holy trinity of fantasy starters. Plus, this is a nice matchup for the TE. 

Jermaine Gresham v. JAC 3
Here's yet another guy who is unowned in the majority of leagues, who we told you to pickup on Tuesday, and now I'm telling you to immediately plug him in.  Andy Dalton leans on A.J. Green and Gresham as his favorite targets, so roll with Gresh if you got him!

NOT

Ben Roethlisberger v. TEN 28
Roethlisberger will gut it out against the Titans on Sunday, but here's the issue: 1) He has struggled all season, 2) His mobility will be severely limited by the injury, and 3) The matchup is very tough.  I would start Kolb or Sanchez above Big Ben this week.  

Mike Tolbert v. DEN 25
This may be obvious to you, but Tolbert is increasingly finding himself on the wrong side of this timeshare. The Chargers announced this week that they plan to get Ryan Mathews 25 carries, which doesn't leave much room for our favorite bruiser, Mikey Tolbs. Bench him this week, and only start him in easy matchups or when he starts getting more work. 

Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter v. OAK 10
In Andre Johnson's absence, many fantasy owners are thinking they'll be clever by plugging in his replacement. If you're starting either guy, it's Jones, but I don't like either. If Jones has a nice fantasy day, it will be on one nice TD run, but I certainly cannot see 8 catches for 110 yards. The Texans will lean heavily on Foster, and Owen Daniels could lead the team in targets.   

Deion Branch v. NYJ 29
Will we see the impressive Branch of the first two weeks, or the dud form the second two weeks? With Revis likely covering him, he'll be a dud again. There's a chance Revis moves to the slot for once to cover the Pats best WR, Wes Welker. But either way, I expect Brady to dink and dunk his way down the field, so he won't go deep to Branch, (and certainly not to Ochostinko).  

Marques Colston / Robert Meachem / Lance Moore v. CAR 23
The matchup doesn't scare me at all. The uncertainty does. It's very possible that all 3 guys have decent fantasy days. It's also possible that all 3 have single digit fantasy points (70 yards for Colston, 10 yards and a TD for Meachem, etc). After Colston's one catch performance, it's not clear that he's fully recovered yet. I believe his return hurts Meachem more than Moore, so if I have to start one WR in Week 5, it's Lance Moore. Of course, if I had to own one WR going forward, it's Marques Colston. 

Kellen Winslow v. SF 16
Winslow is still a big part of the offense, getting plenty of looks and short catches. But until he can get you more than 5 fantasy points, you have to leave him on your bench.