Sunday, October 9, 2011

Game Recaps: Week 5

Damn - football is unpredictable. Offensive coordinators have no interest in spreading the wealth in order to maintain predictable averages for each skill player. So if BenJarvus Green-Ellis is getting it done, there will be no hesitation to just keep giving him the ball over and over again, even if it means Stevan Ridley and Rob Gronkowski get no love. This was one of my worst Hot or Not predictions in memory, and for that, I apologize. I thought Kevin Kolb was at least competent enough to take advantage of a nice matchup. He wasn't. You'd think in a game where the Niners put up 48 points, and 3 receiving TDs, Michael Crabtree - their number one receiver - would have more than 36 receiving yards. He didn't. And after 4 straight bad games, you'd think Ben Roethlisberger should be benched with messed up feet and a tough matchup. Ben and his 5 TDs would argue to the contrary. At least we told you Mark Sanchez, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Santonio Holmes, Greg Olsen, and Jermaine Gresham would be decent starts. And we correctly told you to bench Tolbert, Jacoby Jones, and all 3 Saints WRs. Anywho, here are some notable storylines and takeaways from Week 5 action:

Chiefs v. Colts
Matt Cassel may be back from the fantasy graveyard, after putting together two good games in a row. More importantly, Dwayne Bowe is on a tear with three straight games with TDs, and even though we were skeptical, he's an every-week starter. Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones just are not doing anything to capitalize on Jamaal Charles' absence. Instead, it was Jackie Battle (pictured above) who stepped up with 19 carries for 119 yards (and 2 catches for 21 yards). You're probably looking at the best KC RB to own going forward. Curtis Painter played well, with a QB rating of 115.8. As we've discussed, Painter is making a star out of Pierre Garcon. Meanwhile, Dallas Clark is averaging just 27 yards through 5 games. If you have other TE options, which you probably do, it's time to say "Peace Out" to Dallas Clark. It's that time of year again - Joseph Addai is hurt! In his absence, Delone Carter managed a score, but just 1.8 yards per carry. Donald Brown was much more effective and we're likely to see a value-killing combo of the two going forward.

Seahawks v. Giants
We are a little late to the Victor Cruz party but after three straight big games, it's time to make sure he's owned in your league. Mario Manningham was expected to replace his production this week, but Cruz still led the team in targets with 11. Manningham was a close second with 9, but only hauled in 5 catches for 56 yards. I still think Manningham is a decent buy-low, and the way Eli is playing, he could make Cruz, Manningham, and Nicks all viable options. 

Saints v. Panthers
Jimmy Graham is a man among boys. The return of Marques Colston is muddling up the WR picture, but not the TE picture - Graham is the best bet for fantasy production out of all the Saints receivers. Of the WRs, Colston caught 5 out of 6 targets, Meachem caught 4 out of 5 targets, and Moore caught 3 out of 6 targets. Going forward, Colston is the best starter, but the 3 could eat into eachother's value, making every one of them no more than a decent flex option.

Raiders v. Texans
Don't worry about Darren McFadden's low totals. The Texans made it their number one priority to bottle him up, and he had two long runs called back by penalties. There's nothing wrong with DMC. After two solid games in a row, it's time to consider Darius Heyward-Bey as a waiver add, as he led the team in targets. Denarius Moore had zero catches for zero yards, but received 6 targets so don't drop him yet. Arian Foster is back to his elite 2010 form. In Andre Johnson's absence, Kevin Walter had a nice fantasy day thanks mostly to one nice play. Jacoby Jones caught one pass on twelve targets. As I've said, he just isn't a viable option even given the opportunity. Owen Daniels will continue to be the beneficiary, and he is on a tear. 
Chargers v. Broncos
Vincent Jackson has been pretty inconsistent this year. But don't blame his poor day on his injury; he looked fine out there but was blanketed by Champ Bailey who apparently still has got it. Randy McMichael is not Antonio Gates-light, and there are almost certainly better replacement options on the waiver wire than McMike. Willis McGahee played incredibly well, averaging 7.8 yards-per-carry, which unfortunately is making Knowshon Moreno look like a big fat bust. Moreno looked swift on his TD catch, but he will need a McGahee injury to become a fantasy starter, which is entirely possible. The changing of the guard from Orton to Tebow makes Tebow an intriguing waiver add, with his potential on the ground. But it spells bad news for Brandon Lloyd, Eric Decker, and in my opinion, the Broncos.

Jets v. Patriots
Say what? The New England Patriots ran more than they passed?!? That's new, but it worked. As a Stevan Ridley-owner, I was hoping the Law Firm would get tired in the 4th quarter after repeated runs, but he kept going, racking up 27 carries for 136 yards. BJGE was on a ton of fantasy analysts' bust lists, and he really gave them the finger today. Don't drop Ridley yet; today just wasn't his day. Aaron Hernandez looked more than healthy in his return to action. And don't panic if you're a Rob Gronkowski-owner. He caught all 4 of his targets, and was apparently so sick that he wasn't sure if he'd play today. Of course, Belichick gave us no clue as to his status. 

Packers v. Falcons
The Julio Jones injury would be good news for Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. But let's talk about the Packers backfield: James Starks is still the Green Bay RB to own, especially after Ryan Grant lost a fumble early in the game. Starks had 12 carries for 40 yards compared to 7 carries for just 18 yards for Grant. Here's the problem: remember last year when Ryan Grant landed on I.R. and Brandon Jackson took over the feature back role for the Pack? He sucked it up big time. Unfortunately, being the main RB on this pass-first team just doesn't mean much. In the fourth quarter, when Green Bay should have been killing the clock on the ground (like New England did for example), Aaron Rodgers just kept throwing! He's simply too effective. Ryan Grant should ride benches going forward, and Starks is a shaky flex start, (though he will be a must start in Week 6 against the lowly Rams.)

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

pierre's legit

Cory said...

I must apologize for all my Jacoby Jones pumping. I only thought he would be a nice play for people struggling with players on bye, but still one catch for 9 yards was pretty killer. I will say this though, the potential for a big dday was there, Jones was targetted twice in the end-zone and his 12 targets should have spelled for a better game, but he simply was not clicking with Schaub. Sorry folks, if it makes you feel any better I started him too and was burned by him.

Brett said...

You certainly weren't alone, Cory. Michael Fabiano and Matthew Berry were pumping up Jacoby too.

6 of my 9 matchups this week will come down to MNF tonight. Of my most important ones, I need 17 points out of Jay Cutler, and 33 points out of Megatron, Forte, and Best. What are my odds folks?

Evertine said...

where the raiders wooping analysis at?? Oaktown!

Post a Comment