Game Previews: Week 6

By Cory

Week 5 was quite the topsy-turvy week in the world of fantasy football. Sadly coaches around the NFL really don’t seem to care who was drafted when in fantasy drafts and seem more preoccupied with winning. What’s up with that!? Even the coach who always seems to produce fantasy goodness at the expense of winning the game and sportsmanship, Bill Belichick, toned down his aerial attack last week to allow Benjarvus Green-Ellis to have his breakout game, meaning Ridley disappointed and Brady slowed down. I would love to say that week 6 will bring a return to normalcy, but sadly we can never know for sure. With that in mind, here are some trends across the league and some players with matchups to exploit and avoid going into week 6.

Panthers at Falcons

The Panthers offense is the big surprise of the season with Cam Newton coming in as a clear every week starter, and Steve Smith exploding back onto the main stage as an elite fantasy wide receiver. The mucky part of this team is the backfield. In what seemed like a surefire great matchup for Jonathan Stewart last week, DeAngelo Williams wound up stepping it up in a major way. While I still think both of these guys could be started, I would caution Williams owners that much of his yardage came on one carry and that both of these backs should return more to an even value this weekend. Look for Matt Ryan to bounce back this week, even without Julio Jones who will be sidelined until at least week 7. Harry Douglas will step in at receiver opposite Roddy White in this matchup and has the potential for a decent game. Douglas has always had some role in the Atlanta passing game and should see his targets double this weekend (possible option in deep leagues).

Colts at Bengals

Curtis Painter is a far cry from the next Peyton Manning, and we saw his inability to close out games last week against the lowly Chiefs. However, the Colts are a passing team and with a banged up Joseph Addai, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lean more heavily on the passing game. Pierre Garcon has exploded in a major way thanks to Painter’s production and now has over 400 yards and 4 scores on the young season. If he isn’t already, Garcon should be in your lineup. If Dallas Clark posts another dud performance this weekend, it’s time to cut bait. He is already waiver fodder in three of my leagues. I still like Jermaine Gresham a lot and as long as he continues to produce, he should be started. Gresham only had 21 yards last week, but he had 5 receptions and a score, look for the yards to increase and he seems to be a red-zone favorite in this surprisingly competent Bengals offense.

49ers at Lions

Alex Smith has been making smart decisions with the football and is coming off a great week against the Bucs, but he will have a much tougher time against the Detroit defense. Not that anyone is considering starting Smith (I hope), but this does not bode well for any 49ers receivers not named Vernon Davis. Davis has reinstated himself in this Niners offense and has been a productive option out of the tight-end position. Frank Gore has been on a tear lately, even though there was some talk of him surrendering starting duties, and he remains a safe bet. Jahvid Best showed flashes of brilliance against the Bears on MNF, but has been very inconsistent and will face a very staunch run defense against the 49ers. Best should still be started but another 160+ yard performance is probably not in the stars. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are kinda no-brainers at this point (bench these guys! JK JK JK), but what I am impressed with is the production out of Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew is averaging over 5 catches and 50 yards per game and has been somewhat consistent in his role in this offense. Pettigrew has only one touchdown (which he earned against the Bears this last week), but as long as he is getting looks, the fantasy value is there.

Rams at Packers

There really is nothing left to say about the Rams anymore. They are our lowest power ranked team and no one has done much of anything to make us say otherwise. I never shared Brett’s love for Sam Bradford, so this isn’t all that difficult to call the entire Rams passing game a big fat No-No. The Packers on the other hand have had an astronomical passing game this season. Aaron Rodgers has been spreading the ball around like butter and has made defenses look foolish. The only problem is there is little consistency with the love sharing. Greg Jennings is a safe bet and Jermichael Finley is too productive out of the tight-end spot to be benched, but what do you do with Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson? Cobb has looked impressive but even in this offense he shouldn’t be considered. On the other hand, I do think that Jones and Nelson are both decent homerun hitting options. Don’t get me wrong, both of these guys could have dud performances, but if you’re in a jam, I wouldn’t blame you if you plugged either in your lineup (especially Nelson).

Bills at Giants

Fred Jackson – what can’t this guy do? I knew Jackson was going at a great value, but I never in my wildest dreams - and I have some pretty wild dreams – imagined he would be a top 5 guy. The injury sustained to Donald Jones means that David Nelson will see an increase in targets as he will step up as the number 2 opposite Stevie Johnson. While this will up Nelson’s targets, I am slightly curious to see how his removal from the slot will impact his production. Brandon Jacobs missed practice yesterday and his status is up in the air for this week. However, with a bye in week 7, the Giants may hold off on rushing Jacobs back and aim for a week 8 return, meaning Ahmad Bradshaw should see a healthy dose of carries against a Bills team that has struggled against the run (5.5 yards per carry to opposing runningbacks). Even with the turnover fiesta Eli Manning had last weekend, he still posted solid numbers through the air and I might have to eat crow about saying that he cannot support three wide receivers. I still like Mario Manningham more than Victor Cruz, but I think both could be in your starting lineup against a susceptible Bills secondary.

Jaguars at Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger silenced critics with an exclamation point last week and put together a monster day. If Big Ben can continue to produce like this, there should be enough yardage and fantasy points to go around to support a full staff of receivers. That being said, I think that the Hines Ward show from last week was a bit of an outlier. Ward will continue to hold a special place in the hearts of Steelers’ fans and this offense, but I wouldn’t expect any sort of repeat performance any time soon. Rashard Mendenhall is not on the Steelers injury report for week 6 and Isaac Redman did little last week to make a claim for a bigger role in the running game. Mendenhall is struggling this season but he still has to be started. As for Dwyer, we ain’t buyin’ it so quit tryin’ to sell it.

Eagles at Redskins

While the Eagles have fallen from grace harder than any team in the NFL this season, they’re fantasy production is still up there (if that provides any silver-lining to Eagles fans?). Michael Vick has over 300 yards rushing and even with the turnover issues last week, he managed to put together a solid fantasy game. The same can be said for DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy, all of whom remain safe starts. That rascally old Shanahan is at it again with the Redskins backfield. Ryan Torrain, Tim Hightower, and Roy Helu will likely all see action in this game against a horrendous Philly run defense, but they will eat into each other’s value. This three headed monster – and I use the term monster very loosely – will operate based on the hottest hand. Right now, Torrain was voted US Weekly’s “Hottest Hand of 2011” which means Torrain will get the start, but if he struggles Hightower will step in. Check in if you own any of these players, but don’t expect Shanahan to tell you anything you want to hear about what you can expect out of the backfield rotation.

Texans at Ravens

The Texans looked very sharp in the first half last week against the Raiders, but things fell apart in the second half. Matt Schaub got dinged up and missed practice yesterday but is expected to start week 6. That being said, the Ravens have been tough through the air and Schaub will most likely be playing without Andre Johnson again. Johnson’s return for week 6 is doubtful, so owners should look for an alternative again week 6. Johnson’s absence did nothing to help Jacoby Jones last week who only managed to haul in 1 of 11 targets for 9 yards. The biggest beneficiaries of Andre the Giant’s absence are the tight-ends Owen Daniels and Joel Dreesen. Daniels is an obvious every week starter, but Dreesen could be worth a flier pick if Johnson doesn’t play and you’re in a jam at tight-end. Anquan Boldin should hopefully rebound from a slow week 4, especially since Mario Williams will not be in the game to apply pressure on Joe Flacco. Ed Dickson has also emerged as a reliable fantasy tight-end and I know that I will be starting him this week.

Cowboys at Patriots

He’s baaaaaaack! Miles Austin will make his return to action this weekend against a horrifically porous New England secondary. Tony Romo also appears to be at full health so he should have a field day with Austin back, and Jason Witten and Dez Bryant both looking fully healthy. Felix Jones continues to have his struggles with production and durability, but the Patriots will have their hands full with the mismatch in the secondary, so even if Jones sees a decrease in carries, an increase in YPC should allow for some decent production. As for the Pats’ backfield – good grief. BJGE had a huge performance last week at the expense of Stevan Ridley. Who knows what to expect this week. I would imagine Ridley will see more action but I don’t think the lawfirm BJGE is at risk of losing his starting job after his monstrous outing last week. The return of Aaron Hernandez has spelled even more trouble for Rob Gronkowski who has slowed down dramatically from his red-hot start to the season. But crazy Bill Belichick may completely revamp this offense in the blink of an eye, making Wes Welker and Tom Brady the only consistently reliable starts.

Saints at Buccaneers

Drew Brees is on a completion tear. I know that isn’t a statistic that gets much attention in the NFL because the number of completions is always measured with the number of attempts, but in fantasy it’s a great statistic to see out of your quarterback. Jimmy Graham continues to make me look smart and makes me scared of Trevor from Jacksonville’s team in the Fan League. Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem on the other hand are eating into each other’s value like crazy. Colston is the best weapon of these three and his value should steadily increase at the cost of Meachem and Moore. However, if Brees can continue to average over 30 completions a game (think about what that stat means), then all three of these guys may remain decent options at least in the flex. For the Bucs, it is looking like LeGarrette Blount will be unable to go this week, and Josh Freeman has indicated that the Bucs plan on getting Earnest Graham the ball. Graham is past his prime, but he has looked good in the receiving game and is definitely worth a start this weekend.

Best of luck in week 6, and look I finally made it through a whole article without mentioning Reggie Bu – D’oh!