Monday, September 26, 2011

Working The Waiver: Week 3

Week 3 was rough for us at FFMVP. I lost Kenny Britt for the season. If he stayed healthy and kept up his WR1 production at his WR4 price, man, give me the championship trophy already. But injuries happen. Last week it was Jamaal Charles, this week it's Kenny Britt, who's it going to be next week? Week 3 also saw a few committee backs say, "Committee? Oh hell no. This is my show!" Ryan Mathews, Ryan Grant, Daniel Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dexter McCluster, and Mark Ingram all took steps in the right direction. I still think James Starks is the back to own in Green Bay, and Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs, Darren Sproles, and Pierre Thomas all remain decent flex plays. Reggie Bush and Thomas Jones should be riding benches for now. On to the Waiver Pickups in order of priority, depending on your positional needs of course. Guys who we've already discussed will show up if they're still available in most leagues, but we've already analyzed them, so we won't do it again:

Torrey Smith (Owned in 14% of Yahoo leagues) 
The rookie's first NFL catch was a 74 yard TD. On it's own, that might be a fluke. But he ended the day with 5 receptions for 152 yards, 3 TDs, and 10 rush yards. Lee Evans missed the game and should be back, but Smith cannot simply ride the bench after this electrifying performance. He is exactly the deep threat Joe Flacco needs for a breakout year. If you watched this game, you know why Smith is our number one waiver add this week. 

David Nelson (50%, discussed last week) 
Nelson, one of our "Hot" starts, caught another 6 balls for 84 yards.

Dexter McCluster (54%, discussed last week) 
DMC got all 9 of his carries in the second half after the Chiefs realized how ineffective Thomas Jones is. McCluster ran for 45 yards, and added 5 catches for 17 yards. 

Denarius Moore (53%, discussed last week) 
Moore caught 4 balls for 34 yards, and had a 23 yard TD run. The Raiders are finding ways to get him the ball!

Nate Washington (32%)
With Kenny Britt done for the year, Washington caught 8 balls for 92 yards and a TD. He was producing even when Britt was there though, hauling in 6 passes for 67 yards, and then 7 passes for 99 yards. Damian Williams will technically take Britt's place in the line-up, but Washington will try his best to pick up the slack with a surprisingly effective Matt Hasselbeck looking for a new go-to guy. 

Kendall Hunter (8%) 
While Fragile Frank was on the sidelines with an ankle issue, Hunter had 9 carries for 26 yards and the game's only TD, plus 2 catches for 12 yards. Coach Harbaugh says Gore is "good to go" for next weekend, but his practices are something to monitor this week, because Hunter's opportunity could be coming up soon. Of course, his YPC is awful and the whole Niners offense is laughable, but hey, if he gets to be the main guy, that's something!

Antonio Brown (19%) 
We praised Antonio Brown as the Steelers WR you want after Mike Wallace, and that's looking more and more true every week. Brown's 8 targets led all Steelers, and he caught 4 balls for 75 yards. Through 3 games, Brown has caught 10 out of 23 targets, compared to Emmanuel Sanders 6 catches on just 11 targets. As Hines Ward continues to decline, look for Brown to step up to the plate as Big Ben's #2 option. 

Stevan Ridley (3%) 
Ridley was the sensation of New England's preseason games, and reminded us on Sunday with 44 yards, and an 8 yard catch. It's possible that BenJarvus Green-Ellis is just a guy, and anyone semi-competent can excel in the Pat's offense. In that case, there'd be no reason to keep The Law Firm in there over a slightly more effective Ridley. I have a little more faith in BJGE though. Ridley is certainly worth an add because we've seen randos come out of nowhere and be studs on this team before (see BJGE and Woodhead of last year for example). I want to see what happens next week before dropping anyone with upside for Ridley.

Scott Chandler (57%) 
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times... I don't really know where this is going. The point is that three games in a row with TDs means this is a trend, not a fluke. And guess which team is leading the NFL in scoring? You guessed it - the Buffalo Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be leading the team down the field to the redzone, giving some goalline opportunities for Mr. Chandler. (Could he BE any more effective at the goalline?!? - That's a little Chandler Bing joke for the Friends fans.)

Montario Hardesty (21%) 
With Peyton Hillis out with an illness, Hardesty stepped up with 67 yards on 14 carries, and added 19 yards on 3 catches. Hillis should be back this week, but Hardesty has likely carved out a little role for himself with a few carries to relieve Hillis each week. He would only be startable in the deepest of leagues, but he's shown that if Hillis goes down, which is very possible, Hardesty would be a solid new feature back.

Alfonso Smith (0%)
Beanie Wells was a surprise inactive due to his hamstring, but should be back in Week 4. In his absence, Chester Taylor started but was benched in favor of Alfonso, who had 75 total yards. If Wells can't go again, Smith could be a flex start against the Giants in Week 4. If nothing else, he looks like the right handcuff for Wells-owners.

And finally, kickers deserve little fantasy attention, and there's a growing trend to simply not have kickers on fantasy teams. Most league still have them, and you shouldn't be spending any of your free agent budget on them or trading for them. But at the same time, you have to start one so you should be paying some attention to them. If you drafted a dud, consider Jason Hanson (DET) or Dan Bailey (DAL), who are currently the top 2 fantasy kickers but unowned in the vast majority of leagues.



2 comments:

Brett said...

Also, he's not on the list because we've written and talked about him since Thursday, but Bernard Scott is likely the top pickup out of all these guys. Cedric Benson should miss the next 3 games (assuming his appeal is unsuccessful), so Scott will carry the load against Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. A talented runner, Scott should be inserted into flex spots for the next 3 weeks.

Merlin said...

Is Nate Washington worth a #1 waiver pick up for droppin meachem or percey Harvin? I already have b Scott.

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