Monday, September 26, 2011

Game Recaps: Week 3


New England vs. Buffalo
Is there a more fantasy-tastic team than the New England Patriots? They're currently sporting the number one QB, WR, and TE in fantasy football. But you know to start Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski week in and week out. The RB situation is an unpredictable mess. I thought Green-Ellis was a lock for a TD, but ended up being the least effective RB with 16 yards on 9 carries. Woodhead managed just 41 yards on 9 touches, and the rookie Stevan Ridley had 52 yards on 8 touches. Ridley, the preseason sensation, is worth a look in deeper leagues. But if I can barely trust Green-Ellis and Woodhead in standard leagues, I certainly cannot trust Ridley yet. However, Woodhead certainly came out of nowhere last year; maybe Ridley could do the same.

Miami vs. Cleveland
We cautioned you not to start Daniel Thomas just yet, until we see him do it again. Today, we saw him do it again. Miami, meet your new feature back. Thomas was once again the more effective between-the-tackles runner with 23 carries for 95 yards, compared to 11 carries for just 24 yards for Reggie Bush. And while Bush is supposed to earn his keep in the passing game, he only had one 12-yard catch (his lone target), while Thomas hauled in 3 balls for 27 yards and the score. I'll be starting Thomas and benching Bush going forward.

Houston vs. New Orleans
This Drew Brees character is pretty good. With Marques Colston out for a while, it's "next man up" as they say. Predictably, the target leaders were:
  • Jimmy Graham: 4 recs, 100 yards, TD, 8 targets.
  • Lance Moore: 9 recs, 88 yards, TD, 9 targets.
  • Robert Meachem: 5 recs, 51 yards, TD, 8 targets.
  • Darren Sproles: 6 recs, 50 yards, 9 targets. (Plus 2 carries for 35 yards and a TD on the ground.)
The return of L.Mo means Henderson will return to his regular background role with the occasional long TD every couple weeks. You can now drop Henderson. You should now be starting Meachem, Moore, Graham, and Sproles every week.

Jacksonville vs. Carolina
Cam Newton was not able to complete the hat trick of 400 yard games. Instead, he looked like a rookie QB, completing just 18 of his 34 pass attempts for 158 yards, and one TD to Greg Olsen. He boosted his fantasy day with 7 carries for 27 yards on the ground, and a Two Point Conversion, also to Olsen. If you didn't see this game or the highlights, you should know that it was pouring rain for most of the game. Imagine trying to go deep while wading through Hurricane Katrina waters. If this is his floor, I think he's a safe starter going forward, but you may have better options next week when Newton faces a menacing Chicago defense.

Baltimore vs. St. Louis
We had been pumping up Joe Flacco because he has the best pass-catching back in the game (Rice), a solid possession receiver (Boldin), and finally a legitimate deep threat (Lee Evans). Lee Evans sat out this game and an even better deep threat stepped in to prove us right. Torrey Smith broke out with 5 catches for 152 yards and 3 TDs, which allowed Flacco to pass for a career-high 389 yards. Smith is probably the top waiver add this week. On the other side of the ball, I'm getting tired of apologizing for Sam Bradford. But before we totally give up hope, remember that he is without his best receiver, Danny Amendola, and that their best offensive threat, Steven Jackson, is not at 100%. What's more, his opening trio of games was against the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens. So let's give him one more chance against the Redskins in Week 4 before cutting bait.

Kansas City vs. San Diego
The Chargers presented a tough first outing for the Jamaal Charles replacements, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster. They were popular adds last week because with a wide opening, there's always a chance that someone steps up. Instead, it was exactly what we thought was most likely to happen: Jones started and got more carries, but McCluster was much more effective (5.0 YPC compared to 2.2 YPC). McClusterF$*k was also more involved in the passing game. They will cannibalize each other's value on a poor offense. I'm cutting Jones, but holding onto McCluster to see if he gets worked in even more next week. Note that all 9 of DMC's carries came in the second half, so he is likely to receive a higher percentage of the carries next week. On the other side, Ryan Mathews appears to have turned this committee into his own show. I was very surprised to see how little Tolbert was used. Part of this can be chalked up to Tolbert's recovery from injury, but more likely, it's due to Mathews' excellent performance. Unfortunately for Tolbert-owners, Mathews is looking like the must-start going forward, while Tolbert is looking like a sit.

Pittsburgh v. Indianapolis
This was shocking to me. I expected Rashard Mendenhall to explode on the ground and even Isaac Redman to get 10 carries or so, while destroying the Colts. Instead, Big Ben passed 37 times in a nail-biter of a game. (The key was Indy's defense scoring a TD and making another big play to allow their FG, keeping Indy in the game.) It was nice to see Roethlisberger being Roethlisberger. The in-game commentators said it best when they said having Mike Wallace as your receiver is like throwing to Usain Bolt out there. The Colts passing game continues to be inept. Our "Hot or Not" headline was "Start Fred Davis Over Dallas Clark." After Clark's 12 yard performance, I'm confident Davis will prove us right tonight on MNF! The Colts may make the switch from Collins to Painter, regardless of health, which probably doesn't help Wayne, Clark, or Collie (who can now safely be cut by the way), but which may help Garcon. Garcon had 6 catches for 82 yards, most of which came late in the game with Painter. Also, Joseph Addai has been awful through two weeks, but averages over 5 yards-per-carry with a TD against the frickin' Steelers? Say what? Meanwhile Delone Carter got just 4 carries for 11 yards. Addai was running hard as if to prevent this from becoming a committee, and it looks like he did indeed maintain his feature-back role. 

4 comments:

Craigster said...

Hmm thinking about cutting Reggie bush for Kendall hunter if gore is out long.

Anonymous said...

That's a sexy pic of Brady... heehee

roister said...

should i drop delone carter for torrye smith?

Brett said...

@Craigster: Gore is "good to go" according to Coach Harbaugh so I don't know about that. In a deeper league, I'd prefer Bush because he has some value even w/o an injury to the starter (Thomas). But in shallower leagues, Hunter may make sense because you wouldn't be starting Bush as is - you need an injury to the starter and Gore is probably more injury-prone than Daniel Thomas.

@roster: That's really close, but I think if you need another lottery WR more than RB, make that move.

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