Tuesday, August 2, 2011

What The Lockout Means For Fantasy

There are still too many question marks to get into the nitty-gritty of individual players' value. But it is appropriate to talk generally about what the lockout means for fantasy football. The lockout has two primary effects: (1) Players who are in the same system as last year get a little boost, while players in new situations get a downgrade, and (2) Many team situations, especially runningback committees, will be less clear when you're drafting.

Playing good football is about a whole lot more than being fast and strong. There is a reason that certain rookie positions (RBs) translate better into solid NFL players right away, and there is a reason that certain college systems (U$C) produce better professional players. Football is a mental sport that requires an understanding of complex playbooks, in addition to precise route-running and timing. Without the months of training within a team's system, many NFL players this year who find themselves in a new situation will be at a disadvantage. Chad Ochocinco has to learn the Patriots playbook, Kevin Kolb will have to learn the Cardinals playbook, and rookies most of all need to learn a lot in a short period of time.

This means that players in steady circumstances get a boost - Drew Brees and Marques Colston won't miss a beat. Neither will Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, and Andre Johnson. These players get a slight boost compared to the many players who find themselves on new teams, with new teammates, or with new coaches.

Not to oversimplify the job of an RB, but rookie RBs tend to make an immediate impact because their jobs are the least complex - they just run forward through the hole.  Pass-protection and blitz pickups can be more challenging for the RB rookies. Still, I'm not as worried about the rookie RBs and RBs on new teams. Guys like Kevin Kolb, Sidney Rice, and Julio Jones could potentially merit much higher ADP if they had been able to practice with their new teams for several months. Instead, they have a few weeks to show us what they got before starting the season.

As a result of all these last second team mix-ups, there will undoubtedly be more uncertainty come draft day. Perhaps Ochocinco will have great chemistry with Tom Brady. Perhaps not. We haven't had much time to monitor the camp battle between Tim Hightower, Ryan Torain, and Roy Helu because they've been on the same team for only two days.

The take-away is that now more than ever, just a little bit of research that is up to date before the draft can go a long way. It's entirely realistic for some of these guys to fluctuate in drafts between the 4th and 8th round because no one knows what to make of the new situations. So if you have a tidbit of the most recent news, you will be at a big advantage of knowing who to snag early and who to let go to another schmuck.

Take advantage of the ambiguity by doing your homework and gaining a significant edge over your opponent, who may not even know which RB was just traded to his draft pick's team, thus crowding the backfield. Check back for updates and analysis of free agency winners and losers, and our rankings to dominate your draft. 

1 comments:

Atlanterzz said...

The falcons are gonna fly high this year! Draft matt Ryan, turner, Julio, roddy, and Gonzalez!

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