Trade Targets - Week 7

Targets (Buy-Low)


QBs


Jay Cutler (CHI QB)
Cutler-owners have had a rough few weeks. He has tormented by the Giants, leaving fantasy owners with a brutal -3 points. Then he missed week five, and underperformed in week six - he had zero TDs and was sacked six times. Cutler will bounce back. With his gunslinger mentality, the risk-taking philosophy of Mike Martz, and a poor offensive line, Cutler will turn the ball over more than you'd like to see. But he says that he felt totally fine throughout the game against Seattle in spite of the many sacks. The emergence of Johnny Knox gives Cutler the perfect deep threat. If you take out the two games that Cutler missed (half of week four, and all of week five), Knox's yardage totals are 52, 86, 94, 120. Notice the trend? Aromashodu showed signs of life this week, Matt Forte is the ideal pass-catching back, and Devin Hester is a play-maker. Cutler has a great upcoming schedule with Washington and Buffalo up next. Buy-low now if you can.


RBs

Marshawn Lynch (SEA RB)
Lynch-owners my panic because he only averaged 2.6 yards per carry in his debut while Justin Forsett averaged 6.7. That is slightly alarming, and it seems like Lynch won't be a true feature back, but I believe he will remain the starter. His upside is limited, but he will get a good amount of carries, and most importantly, has the number one easiest schedule of remaining games for an RB.


Jamaal Charles (KC RB)
Charles isn't a typical buy-low because he's been playing quite well and averaging 10 fantasy points per game. I think he's still a buy-low because he will do even better in the second half of the season. His carries have slowly increased with every game. Thomas Jones is stealing a ton of carries, but consistently doing less with them. I'm not going to say it's as simple as "Charles averages more yards per carry than Jones, so give Charles the ball 30 times a game." But even if he got slightly more than 50% of the team's carries, Charles would average over 100 rushing yards per game because of how many rushing attempts the Chiefs have and because of Charles' effectiveness. Additionally, Charles only has one TD so far. Jones is more of the goalline back, but Charles will surely get a handful more TDs in the second half. Finally, Charles (and Jones for that matter) has the 2nd easiest upcoming schedule for an RB.


Knowshon Moreno (DEN RB)
Moreno has been a disappointment so far, missing three games and garnering just 4 points in his return. The Broncos have become a decidedly pass-first team. However, Moreno is a talented runner and will continue to get more carries. He was eased back into the offense this week with just 12 carries. I don't expect him to be a 25 carries back, but about 20 carries will make Moreno a decent RB2. Plus, he has a top 5 easiest upcoming schedule for RBs.


WRs


Santonio Holmes (NYJ WR)
Holmes' triumphant return has been quite underwhelming. With a bye this week, the Jets can make it a priority to fully integrate Holmes into this offense as their primary target. Though he has not been performing at all like one so far, I expect Holmes to be a solid WR3 going forward.


Louis Murphy (OAK WR)
Murphy was dealing with injury, and a QB carousel. Jason Campbell (or worse yet, Kyle Boller) will likely start for the Raiders this week, but Gradkowski is returning soon and he makes effective use of Murphy's skills. With the number one easiest upcoming schedule for WRs, I like Murphy as a fantasy starter after this week assuming Gradkowski returns. You may not even need to trade for him because he's likely available on your waiver wire. I'd rather have him than any of this week's hot waiver pickups (Alexander, Branch, Williams).


TEs


Jason Witten (DAL TE)
Witten has been so-so, averaging 50 yards a game and just 1 TD.  He's the second most targeted player on the Cowboys, which you wouldn't guess because he has the lowest catch percentage. What does it mean when a player gets a ton of targets but hasn't been catching them? If it's a new rookie player, you'd guess that those targets will go down. But when it's an established player like Jason Witten, you'd expect the targets to remain the same and the reception totals will go up, as his catch percentage regresses to the mean. On top of that, Witten has the number one easiest schedule of upcoming matchups for TEs.


Unload (Sell-High)


Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG RB)
Don't panic or get offended, Bradshaw-owners. Bradshaw is still a top RB going forward, but if you're looking to trade an elite RB for an elite WR or QB, might I suggest moving Bradshaw now. He's averaging close to 100 yards a game, but four of his six opponents have been top ten easy matchups (Car, Ind, Hou, Det), none of which he gets to see again. Going forward, he has the number one hardest schedule for an RB.


Dwayne Bowe (KC WR)
Bowe has been awful all season averaging just 2 catches per game with 38 yards, before his "breakout" game against Houston. Houston is the 2nd easiest matchup for WRs, so I doubt this 100 yard, 2 TD production will happen again unless he gets to play the #1 easiest matchup, which coincidentally he does this weekend against Jacksonville. Most leagues have a 2 day trade review period so trade away Bowe on Friday or Saturday so that you can enjoy his big game against Jacksonville and then you won't have to deal with his bone-headedness for the rest of the season. Maybe I'm putting Bowe on this list a little early. If you can't move him this week, try next week assuming he has a 2nd good game.