Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Game Previews: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid

In the world of Fantasy Football, this is one of the more difficult bye weeks to get around. If you don’t have any players on the Jets, Colts, Texans or Lions, you’re in great shape, but for the rest of the world, this is a tough weekend. But have no fear, the MVP is here! Here is a look forward to this weekend’s matchups to exploit and avoid to get you through your bye-week blues…

Philadelphia at Tennessee
The Quarterback controversy in the City of Brotherly Love continues. However, while Vick remains sidelined with rib injuries, Kolb has a lock on the quarterback job this weekend against the Titans. The Titans have a solid secondary but Kolb is coming off his best game of his career and would be a serviceable quarterback for anyone in need of a spot-start. After a crushing hit last week from Dunta Robinson, DeSean Jackson will be out this weekend and rested during the week 8 bye. While this is bad news for Jackson owners, it ups the value of Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant, who picked up the slack as the number 2 receiver last weekend. That magic chemistry between roommates, Kolb and Celek, appears to be fading. Celek has been dropping passes on crucial third down plays and will likely see a drop-off in targets. Considering Celek’s season high in receiving yards is 46, it may be time to look to the future and grab a new TE. McCoy was held out of practice yesterday but should be good to go this weekend. Eldra Buckley has been taking second team reps and will likely steal some carries from McCoy, but LeSean is the premiere back in Philly.

As for the Titans, the injury to Vince Young could be devastating to this offense. Kerry Collins looked good in closing out the game, but VY is the future in Tennessee and Coach Fisher would like to continue to ride the hot hand. Young was held out of practice yesterday, but has been progressing better than expected. Young will be a true game time decision. With the injury to Justin Gage, Kenny Britt remains the biggest beneficiary. Nate Washington was a non-factor against the Jags Monday night as the Titans ran out the clock. If Young is in, Britt makes for a solid start, if Collins is in, this passing game is all up for grabs. The Titans also seem to be leaning heavily on CJ2K. Whether this was just an issue of keeping his 100+ yard road game streak active is unknown, but Johnson remains an every week started regardless of whether or not they continue to force feed him the ball.


New England at San Diego
Despite the tough matchup, Brady delivered the ball effectively last weekend in a come from behind victory. Without Randy Moss, Brady has been forced to spread the ball around more, but rest assured, Brady is a safe start against a struggling San Diego secondary. Although Welker is now listed as the No. 1 receiver on the Pat’s depth chart, he lacks the size to spread the field effectively. The Pats are operating as a west-coast offense making Deion Branch destined for redemption. Welker and Branch should both be in starting rosters this weekend. The wild-card in this passing attack is Danny Woodhead who racked up significant yards on the ground and through the air. Woodhead makes for a high upside flex option especially in the amorphous blob that is the New England backfield. There is no safe or reliable runningback option in New England, BJG-E (this guy doesn’t deserve a cool initial nickname, but his name is too much of a hassle to spell out) led the Pats in carries with 10 but only picked up 20 yards on those carries. While Taylor remains sidelined, the only NE back of value is whoever winds up finding paydirt.

San Diego’s early struggles continue as the Bolts fall to 2-4. Rivers showed how much he missed Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates last weekend as he struggled to force the ball into the hands of Patrick Crayton. Once again the Chargers will appear to be without Floyd this weekend and possibly without Gates who sustained a possible strained toe. If Gates is starting he is a must start fantasy TE but check back Sunday to make sure he’s healthy. Without Floyd, Crayton will continue to eat up targets and should have a solid matchup against the undersized and overmatched New England secondary. The breakdown in carries in the backfield clearly favors Ryan Mathews (15 carries to Tolbert’s 3 last weekend). Tolbert could vulture some goal line work, but Mathews remains the starter and workhorse back in San Diego. Although we don’t typically mention them, be sure to pull Nate Kaeding from your starting roster as he will miss week 7 due to injury.


Minnesota at Green Bay
Believe it or not, these two teams appear to be moving in opposite directions. The Vikes had a huge win last weekend against Dallas as Favre was making smarter throws and moving the ball more cautiously down the field. The Vikings are leaning more heavily on Adrian Peterson as Favre’s elbow continues to bother him, and AP will have a solid matchup against a Packers D that gives up 4.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs. As for the receiving corps, our initial predictions seem correct on Shiancoe who was targeted zero times last weekend. Moss is the new tall target and should be started in what figures to be an offensive showdown. Percy Harvin has also become a more central piece of the Minnesota offense with Moss spreading the field and leaving more room underneath for the speedster Harvin. The questionable hands and competition around him have made Bernard Berrian a non-factor in fantasy leagues.

On top of three straight weeks of close losses and a concussion, Aaron Rodgers has the return of Brett Favre to Lambeau to add to his headache. Although Rodgers has been posting solid fantasy numbers, his third down efficiency and turnover ratio (two things that Rodgers excelled at last season) have cut drives short especially in the second half. However, as both of these quarterbacks will be playing with something to prove, they should both be in starting lineups. Jennings exploded out of the gates last weekend with an 86-yard touchdown and he continued to beat up on the Miami secondary. It appears Jennings has finally reached his potential and now has the edge over Donald Driver in the GB passing attack. However, given the condition of the Minnesota secondary, both Driver and Jennings should be started. As for Jordy Nelson and James Jones, they are both too inconsistent to be on fantasy rosters. In the backfield, our predictions for BJax are finally coming true. Jackson tripled the touches of Kuhn last weekend and has racked up 222 yards over the past two games. Although Jackson will be running at the Williams wall, the Packers are a pass first team and Vikings will not be able to stack the box against the GB running game. Jackson should now be an every week flex option and potentially an RB2 in good matchups (which this is not.)


New York Giants at Dallas
This game will likely be a high-scoring affair as both teams have extremely talented offenses. Eli Manning has been impressive so far this season and is facing a jumpy and struggling Dallas Secondary. While Hakeem Nicks saw limited targets and Steve Smith was just a possession receiver last weekend, the Giants will have to go to the air with more frequency this weekend against Dallas. Smith should be good for the usual 6-10 points and Hakeem Nicks will likely return to form as the deep threat he has emerged as this season. For Ahmad Bradshaw, Dallas poses a tough opponent. Although Bradshaw has overcome Jacobs as the starting back in New York, Jacobs remains a TD vulture and may see more carries if Bradshaw struggles against a powerful run-D.

Tony Romo owners, do not worry about the thumb injury, Romo will be good to go this weekend. That being said, Romo will also be facing the No. 1 secondary this weekend. Romo will be seeing a lot of pressure but is too talented to bench in this divisional rivalry. The same can be said for Miles Austin, despite his dramatic underperformance last week. The question remains, however, of what to do with Dez Bryant and Roy Williams. Williams racked up two more touchdowns last weekend on three catches, but Dez also added a 31-yard touchdown catch for his only touch of the day. Although Bryant has more raw talent, Romo has established something with Williams that has made the former Lion too productive to bench. Williams continues to have the edge over Dez Bryant. The Dallas backfield also has some question marks surrounding it. Felix Jones has increased his carries and eclipsed Marion Barber as the predominant back, but Jones also threw up and needed an I.V. last weekend suggesting that he may not be able to handle the full workload. Look for Tashard Choice to become more involved but barring an injury, Jones remains the only back that can be started in fantasy leagues.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

How is Steeler's pass D going to affect Brandon Marshall this week?

Also, should one expect Branch to get 70+ yds on a weekly basis going forward?

Anonymous said...

Can you comment on DMC and MBush in OAK. I know Tom Cable isn't into using an RB committee but it seems like with DMC still less than 100% they could split carries this weekend almost down the middle. If this is the case, is Michael Bush still a viable RB3/flex starter?

Anonymous said...

I struggled with Jennings last year. He had a few strong games and turned in a solid year. But he was a major disappointment in terms of touchdowns, and this ultimately, hurt my team. Rodgers turned into Brees last year, getting huge points from anyone but not looking for a consistent receiver.

Brett said...

You're obviously starting Marshall, but yeah, it's tough matchup so temper expectations.

I don't know about Branch. He's a must-ad this week, but keep in mind he has NEVER had a 1,000 yard season, even at his peak with Brady. So one should HOPE for 70+ yards, but should not expect it.

Yes, it looks like Bush and McFadden could split carries. I think they're both decent flex options against Denver.

Anonymous said...

BRETT HELP!!! Which 2 to start at RB: Bradsahw, Jones, Benson, or Lynch

and which 3 for WR: Fitz, Smith (giants), M.Williams (Sea), D.Alexander

Brett said...

Bradshaw and Benson.
And Fitz, Smith, and Williams.

Anonymous said...

Yeah dude, you gotta wait and see what Lynch and Alexander do consistently before use...

MERLIN said...

Who should i start dis week?pick 2 wr and 2 rb
Mike williams(sea) vs ariz
crayton vs NE
knox vs WSH

r. brown vs PIT
c ivory vs CLE
carnell williams vs STL
fred jackson vs BAL

what rb should i drop for a kicker(no kicker)? c.williams or willis(bal)

MERLIN said...

^ currently have r rice ^

Anonymous said...

Who should I start - Moreno, Felix Jones, or LeSean McCoy?

FinBaLLeR86 said...

Who is a better desperation QB start -- Colt McCoy or Kerry Collins??

Anonymous said...

Merlin, I would play Williams and Crayton if you are the heavy favorite, since they are safe picks. But if you're even or an underdog, you'll need the help of Knox's upside.

McGahee is the only RB you could drop that wouldn't be immediately picked up, all other things being equal. (for a kicker).

If you are starting Rice and two more RBs, doesn't that mean you have a flex? In that case I might start your other WR mentioned earlier.

I would rank the RBs...

Ivory/Jackson/Brown/Williams. If I was a heavy underdog I might start Brown and pray he throws a TD pass though.



Anonymous, Moreno needs to prove his health, start McCoy.


Finballer, holy crap why are you forced to start them?? Is there no Cassel, Hasselbeck, or Hall?? I might even start Kyle Boller over them dude.

Brett said...

@Merlin: I'd start Crayton and Knox, and Brown and Ivory. I'd drop McGahee for a kicker.

@Anonymous: I'd go with McCoy. Moreno would be my 2nd choice.

@FinsBaller: I like Collins more.

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