Early Round Value Picks

I love printing out my draft sheet and crossing off each pick with a big black sharpie. Then, it’s my turn and I see that DeAngelo Williams is sitting there with 10 guys blacked out below him. He’s alone in the sea of crossed out people. Then I steal him with my 24th overall pick, even though I have him ranked 11. We’ve discussed sleepers in the very late rounds, but today we’ll talk about Value Picks that are top 100 guys. There are some guys I’ve been talking up like Finley, Colston, Terell Owens, and Miles Austin, but their Average Draft Position (ADP) is right around where they should be going. So let’s talk about the underrated guys that you should target.

1) DeAngelo Williams (CAR RB)
MVP Rank: 11. ADP: 21.
Williams suffered a late season injury so he finished 14th of RBs, but if you pro-rated his production from the 13 games into 16 games, he would have finished 7th. And let’s not forget that the year before, he finished #1 overall. Plus, Williams has had an impressive, albeit quiet, preseason.

2) Ryan Grant (GB RB)
MVP Rank: 22. ADP: 28.
Grant isn’t a “sexy” pick. He’s rarely described as electric or explosive, but he finished 8th in RBs last year, yet he’s taken as the 13th off the board this year. What’s changed in Green Bay? That offense is only getting better.

3) Steve Smith (CAR WR)
MVP Rank: 32. ADP: 37.
People are too scared by the arm injury from the flag football game. He’s healthy now. Smith had a down year last year, missing the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in 5 years. But when Matt Moore took over for Jake Delhomme, Smith’s average yards and TDs per game practically doubled (from 54.9 yards and .36 TDs to 94.5 yards and .75 TD). Carolina’s official starting QB this year is… Matt Moore.

4) Joseph Addai (IND RB)
MVP Rank: 41. ADP: 50.
Last year, Addai finished 10th of RBs. He is being drafted as the 22nd RB off the board. I wouldn’t take him as the 10th RB because so much of his value came from his 15 TDs last year, which he likely cannot replicate. Plus, Donald Brown may be worked into the offense a little more this year. But Addai is a solid and safe pick as an RB2. Don’t let him fall too far.

5) Jonathan Stewart (CAR RB)
MVP Rank: 37. ADP: 48.
Stewart finished 12th of RBs last year, but is being drafted as the 21st RB. Granted, part of his success came from having the backfield all to himself for the final 3 games. But this kid is talented, and will score TDs. Carolina is the only team in the league that can produce 2 top-ten RBs.

6) Knowshon Moreno (DEN RB)
MVP Rank: 33. ADP: 52.
Wow. Moreno’s value has dipped too far due to a recent hamstring issue, but he will start the regular season as the featured back. I don’t expect an eye-popping yards-per-carry on this mediocre offense, but I do expect a ton of carries for Moreno. He’s a steal in the 5th round.

7) Percy Harvin (MIN WR)
MVP Rank: 51. ADP: 59.
Harvin’s migraines could make him a headache to own, but he says he has identified the source of the migraines and has them under control now. With Sidney Rice’s injury, Harvin will lead the Vikings in targets for the conceivable future. In only his 2nd year, Harvin will rush, receive, and maybe even get you another pair of Return TDs like last year.

8) Marion Barber (DAL RB)
MVP Rank: 61. ADP: 74.
Barber has never had a 1,000 rushing yards season, but he has had 3 consecutive 1,000 total yards seasons now. Felix Jones will take away a lot of carries, but keep in mind Jones’ injury history; some have questioned his toughness. Barber’s upside is limited, but you could grab a solid RB2 in the 7th round.

9) Clinton Portis (WAS RB)
MVP Rank: 82. ADP: 88.
Portis is definitely not a trendy pick. He may be on too many bust lists. But he is the starting RB on a decent offense. Portis has missed half the season twice. But he has had 6 incredible 1,500+ yards seasons. He turns 29 today – not ancient. Even though there are big names in this backfield (Larry Johnson, Willie Parker), it is not a committee. Portis will be a workhorse.