Overrated Early Picks

Yesterday, we discussed underrated picks in the top 100. Today, we’ll discuss overrated players. These guys tend to consistently get drafted a little before they should be. I’m not saying they’re busts that you shouldn’t draft. I’m just cautioning you not to draft them too early.

1) Calvin Johnson (DET WR)
MVP Rank: 18. ADP: 12.
Calvin is an athletic beast. He has big upside, but he was bad last year. I’m on board with the Lions offense this year, but people are drafting him like he’s a consistent elite guy with Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. He’s not quite there yet. I’d rather have Reggie Wayne or Miles Austin.

2) Anquan Boldin (BAL WR)
MVP Rank: 36. ADP: 31.
Like Calvin Johnson, I don’t question Boldin’s talent, and I would be happy to own him. I think Baltimore’s offense will also take a big step forward. But Flacco is not Peyton Manning yet, and with Derrick Mason, Ray Rice, and even Todd Heap, I’m not sure Boldin will see enough targets to live up to his 3rd round status.

3) Steve Smith (NYG WR)
MVP Rank: 40. ADP: 36.
Smith busted out last year, but can Eli Manning repeat last year’s stats? Smith is being drafted as if he will repeat last year’s performance. Smith will be valuable in PPR leagues, but I’d rather have Carolina’s Steve Smith with the 36th pick.

4) Phil Rivers (SD QB)
MVP Rank: 47. ADP Rank: 44.
There’s not a huge discrepancy between Rivers’ ADP and our ranking for him. I just want to point out that Vincent Jackson will likely be gone all season. I like Malcolm Floyd and Legadu Naanee as sleepers, and Gates will be Gates. But Rivers is being drafted like he will be as good as last year. Vincent Jackson’s departure must cause some dip in value.

5) Chad Ochocinco (CIN WR)
MVP Rank: 49. ADP: 45.
I’ve always loved Ochocinco, even back when his last name was boring old “Johnson.” But Terrell Owens looks great, I think Batman and Robin (Ocho and Owens) should be closer in drafts than they’re going.


6) Justin Forsett (SEA RB)
MVP Rank: 84. ADP: 66.
Forsett was the sweetheart of so many “fantasy experts” this offseason, most of all ESPN’s Matthew Berry. But it is looking more and more like this will be a committee. Coach Pete Carroll likes what he sees from Leon Washington a lot, so I’d rather have Washington in the 12th round than Forsett in the 6th. Not to mention, Julius Jones is still atop the depth chart.

7) Donald Driver (GB WR)
MVP Rank: 80. ADP: 67.
If Driver performs close to as good as he was last year, I’ll eat my words. But Driver is getting long in the tooth (35 years old) and had surgery on both knees. Wide Receivers need functional knees. Driver’s production last year was the result of poor offensive line play – Rodgers had to get the ball out quick to his possession guy. This year, the O-line is much improved. With more time, I expect Rodgers to go deep to Jennings a lot more than he goes short to Driver. Plus, Finley will take a lot of those possession targets.

8) Owen Daniels (HOU TE)
MVP Rank: 110. ADP: 83.
Daniels was extremely productive before his week 8 injury. He is still not fully healed and will be on a snap count at least for the beginning of the season. Plus, the emergence of Jacoby Jones will steal targets from Schaub. I would rather grab Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley, or my favorite TE sleeper, Zach Miller, before Daniels.

9) Devin Aromashodu (CHI WR)
MVP Rank: 110. ADP: 94.
Should you Aromashodu? I think not. In a Mike Martz offense, we know there will be value in Chicago’s passing game. I’m a little concerned with how bad Jay Cutler and the offensive line have looked in preseason, but I’m trying not to read too much into that. I think Knox fits the mold of the Martz breakout receive better than Aromashodu. Aromashodu should start over Hester and I fully expect him to be 2nd in targets. But Knox is Cutler’s clear favorite. So don’t overpay.