Deal Or No Deal: Risky Picks

The show "Deal Or No Deal" provides a perfect display of risk-taking and risk-aversion. To oversimplify the premise for those that haven't seen it, the contestant finds out that she has either $1 or $100,000 in a briefcase and is offered around $50,000 for the briefcase. The contestant always asks the audience what to do and the audience, concerned more about the entertainment value of the unfolding drama than the contestant's well-being, shouts "No Deal!" I would be the one wet blanket in the audience yelling, "Take the Deal! It's the fiscally responsible thing to do!" That's because as a fantasy football pro, I know when it make sense to take a risk, and when you ought to play conservatively and protect what you already have.

In the first 5 rounds, most players are studs so just take the best available guys. But start to take note of how you're feeling about your team so far and how the historically heavy-hitting managers are doing. I'm assuming your goal is to win the league, not just finish in the top half. So if you're feeling like the draft isn't going how you want, it's time to make risky picks with high-upside. If you're feeling good about your team so far, make low-risk consistent picks and complete your RB tandems.

For example, I have the Cleveland and Buffalo tandems all ranked around pick 70 (Harrison, Hardesty, Spiller, and F-Jax). It's possible that the tandems split 50-50 and they're all equally valuable. But more likely (and for the sake of this argument), let's assume that 1 RB on each team will emerge and become much more valuable than the other. In a draft last night, I had the swing pick so I could take 2 of these 4 RBs. I felt really good about my team at that point and noticed my frustrated competitors, so I played conservatively and took Harrison and Hardesty. I know that they cannot both be studs, but 1 of them likely will be a good start. IF I didn't like my team, I may have swung for the fences and taken Hardesty and Spiller and hoped that I chose the 2 starting RBs on those teams. Of course, I would risk drafting 2 backups, but there's an equal chance that I drafted 2 starters.

Similarly, if you're a Deal Or No Deal contestant who is about to declare bankruptcy anyway, you might as well say "No Deal" and hope for enough money to turn around your life. If you're financially stable already, you should say "Deal" and save your moderate prize.

Here are some reliable, lower upside guys to say "Deal" to if you're already feeling confident: Tony Gonzalez, Santana Moss, Eli Manning, Donald Driver, Cadillac Williams, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, Derrick Mason, Thomas Jones, Chester Taylor.

Here are some high-risk, high-reward guys when you feel like yelling "No Deal! I'm going for it all!": Justin Forsett, Darren McFadden, Steve Breaston, Montario Hardesty, Jerome Harrison, Wes Welker, Johnny Knox, Dez Bryant, Malcolm Floyd.

The strategy likely shifts in the late rounds. Remember that most rankings are based on average projections. So I have James Jones and Jacoby Jones near Nate Washington and Laurent Robinson. Most likely, each guy will not be startable and get you 0-30 yards a week. But while the J. Jones's might give you zero per week, they MIGHT also step in and give you starter numbers (if Jacoby beats Kevin Walter for the starting #2 job, and if Old Man Driver gets hurt and James Jones fills in over Jordy Nelson.) I would argue that Robinson and Washington have much less upside. If I averaged the bandwidth of likely scenarios for these 4 guys, they all average 20 yards per game, but the Jones's have a much wider bandwidth and it is conceivable that they could average 75 yards per game. And whether your bench players are getting 0, 20, or 40 yards per game probably doesn't matter. It only matters if they become starter-worthy. The following late round guys are all bunched together in drafts and may average the same amount, but unlike your 6th round pick who you may or may not want to perform like a 6th round pick, you definitely do not want your 13th round pick to perform like a 13th round pick.

Here are some lateround guys to target who MAY perform like starters: Matthew Stafford, Julian Edelman, Jacoby Jones, Early Doucet, Matt Leinart, James Jones, Toby Gerhart, Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, Mike Williams, Tony Sheffler, Dexter McCluster,

Here are some lateround guys to avoid because they likely will NOT perform like starters: Kevin Smith, Marshawn Lynch, Nate Washington, Alex Smith, Laurent Robinson, Josh Morgan, Josh Cribbs, Sammy Morris, Jeremy Shockey, Larry Johnson, Justin Gage, Roy Williams, Julius Jones, Jason Campbell, Jerious Norwood, Kyle Orton.

So aim for value throughout, but make an informed choice in the middle rounds whether to say "Deal" and protect your advantage or "No Deal" to make up ground. And then in the late rounds, don't target guys who WILL get you SOME points, target guys who MIGHT get you a LOT of points.