Hot or Not Week 1: Avoid Colts

Our old readers know how Hot or Not works, but for the newbs, here's what we do. We don't tell you that Tom Brady is a "Hot" start and Alex Smith is a "Not Hot" start. Instead, we look at a few guys on the border between starting or being benched. They are often situational or matchup-based, so there's not a lot to go on in Week 1, but here are our first recommendations:

HOT

Beanie Wells v. CAR

If you drafted a few weeks ago, you probably didn’t draft Wells as a starting RB, but it’s time to plug him in. I don’t expect Carolina to be any better than they were last year (though they certainly cannot get much worse). Arizona did not run a whole lot last year, but I see Arizona with a lead in the second half, and quite frankly, there’s no one else to nurse that lead on the ground. Chester Taylor will not be ready, and will not play. LaRod Stephens-Howling is not built to kill the clock. I foresee a buttload of second half carries for Wells.  

Tim Hightower v. NYG

Like Wells, you may not have drafted Hightower to start, but it’s never too early to show off your flexibility by making this move. Hightower’s matchup against the G-Men is not nearly as easy as Beanie’s, but the fact remains that Hightower is a workhorse and there aren’t many RBs left that you can say that about. Roll him out there and expect 80+ yards.

Felix Jones v. NYJ

The matchup is not ideal, but Jones is a featureback and Tony Romo’s many weapons will make room for The Pussycat when he gets the chance.

Fred Jackson v. KC

We’re reaching the bottom of the flex-worthy options this week, but FJax’s talent is underestimated, and I expect him to get the vast majority of carries against a less than staunch Chiefs run D.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis v. MIA

After an incredible season last year, the knock on The Lawfirm is that the Patriots usually rotate backs and ride the hot hand. For now, Benji is the hot hand. After an impressive string of TDs in the preseason, there’s no reason to doubt that the Pats will feed him the rock on the 1-yard line.

Kenny Britt v. JAC

CBS Sports has called Britt a “human tragedy” due to his combination of injuries, off the field criminal activity, and poor surrounding cast. Britt could be a “human miracle” this Sunday if he picks up where he left off last year. Hasselbeck is no spring chicken, but he’s no worse than the Kerry Collins / Vince Young combo that Britt dealt with last year. As the number one target, I like Britt’s odds of success against a poor Jags secondary.

NOT

All Colts Except Clark, Wayne, and Vinatieri.

Teams typically gameplan the most for the first week of the season. This was never more evident than Week 1 last year, when the Texans came out and stomped the number one obstacle on their way to the playoffs: The Colts. Without Peyton Manning, I expect the Texans to really go for the jugular and beat the Colts again (assuming Foster can play). Make no mistake: Peyton Manning is the Colts offense. Downgrade every other Colt without him there. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are good enough to start no matter what. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are not. If healthy, Collie may prove to be a steal once Peyton is back, but for now, leave ‘em both on the bench.

Kerry Collins has an opportunity to exploit some weapons here, but he’s just plain old and immobile at this point. More importantly, he’s barely had any time to learn a complicated offense. In a deep league, Manning-owners ought to grab Collins and potentially start him. Otherwise, don’t fall for it.

Finally, Joseph Addai will likely get more carries without Manning, but Delone Carter may take a few carries away, especially short yardage runs. Over the past two years, with perhaps the greatest QB to every play the game opening holes for him, Addai averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. With defenses keying in on him I can see 20 carries for 60 yards on Sunday. If that’s startable in your deep league, go for it. In standard leagues, you can do better.

Ryan Grant and James Starks v. NO / Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert v. MIN

Each of these guys has the potential to become a stud this season. Right now, however, each should only get 50% of the team carries, meaning they’re probably both startable only in the easiest of matchups. Minnesota and New Orleans are not quite easy enough. Again, it wouldn’t surprise me if next week, I’m recommending Starks and Tolbert as the guys to start because they’re getting closer to 70% of the carries on these solid offenses. But for now, in week 1, I just don’t feel super confident starting any of these timeshare RBs.

St. Louis WRs

We’ve been looking throughout the entire preseason for one of these guys to really step up and cement his role as this year’s Brandon Lloyd. That hasn’t really happened. I’d rank them this week and going forward in the following order:
1. Danny Amendola
2. Mike Sims-Walker
3. Brandon Gibson
4. Danario Alexander
5. Greg Salas

I worry that Bradford will spread the ball around so much (including the use of his TE, Lance Kendricks) that no single receiver will be awesome yet. Let's wait and see. 

Best of luck in week one! I'm ready for some football!