Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Winners and Losers of Free Agency

After a wild week of players moving around faster than pogs in my childhood schoolyard, the dust is finally beginning to settle. Many moves were unsurprising (Kolb to the Cards), while others made me scratch my head (Panthers breaking the bank on DeAngelo when they could have used that dough on other positions that need help i.e. EVERY OTHER POSITION ON THEIR CRAPPY TEAM). Here are the winners and losers of last weeks wild ride:



WINNERS

RAY RICE
Rice is looking like a true stud. He started last season slow, with an unfortunate touchdown drought. But you could almost always count on him for 100+ yards (on the ground and through the air) and he turned it around big time towards the end. Willis McGahee was always vulturing Rice's TD opportunities. The good news is that McGahee is now Knowshon Moreno's problem on the Broncos. Rice is one of the very few workhorse RBs left in the wasteland of committees. If you take 5 of McGahee's 6 TDs, and none of his yards, from last year and gave them to Rice, Rice would have been the 4th or 5th RB (depending on your scoring format), and I plan to draft him as such. After the Big Three (CJ, AP, and Arian Foster (when does he get to be called AF?!?)), I'm taking Rice as the 4th overall pick.

CHRIS JOHNSON AND KENNY BRITT
Make no mistake about it - Matt Hasselbeck is on the decline. He has as many Pro Bowl caliber seasons left in him as hairs on his head. But he is certainly an improvement over Jake Locker. Britt and Johnson are wildly talented players, so all they need is a halfway decent QB to be able to shine. And that's just what they got in Hasselbeck.

CHAD OCHOCINCO
I'm sorry but I love Chad Ochocinco. Yes, he's cocky, arrogant, and at times distracting. But he's not out there drunk-driving (Stallworth), killing people (Ray Lewis), bringing guns into clubs (Plax), assaulting people (Benson), or running dog fighting rings (Eli Manning. Just Kidding - Vick). Ocho's antics are all in good fun. And now he gets a huge upgrade from the disarray of thugs in Cincinnati to the polished winning-machine that is the New England Patriots. I don't know about you, but I'd rather catch passes from Tom Brady than Andy Dalton. The move severely limits whatever value Deion Branch had, but Ocho should step in nicely as a deep threat to compliment Wes Welker underneath. I'd like to see how Ocho looks and is used in the preseason, but I could foresee a bounce back year from Chad.
If he gets a new number in New England, will he have to change his last name??

FELIX JONES
I'm surprised there's not more hype for Jones at this point. The Cowboys had a busy week, admitting defeat on the Roy Williams experiment, shoring up their O-Line by retaining Doug Free, and most importantly giving Marion the Barberian to the Bears. The potential sleeper rookie RB, DeMarco Murray, and Tashard Choice were just injured in camp so Jones will get all the first team reps he needs. Assuming Romo stays healthy, this looks to be a high octane offense this year. With the emergence of Dez Bryant, the offense will never run as much as the Jets for example, but when the Boys run, it looks like it will be all Felix, so I'm buying in on this guy.

KYLE ORTON AND BRANDON LLOYD
It looks like Orton is not, in fact, headed to Miami after all. Denver is sticking with Orton over Tim Tebow, which is great news for Lloyd, who had his breakout season with Orton at the helm. While there is little chance that Lloyd can reproduce last season's incredible numbers, he certainly can put up another solid season.

LOSERS

DEANGELO WILLIAMS AND JONATHAN STEWART
Both backs are, of course, extremely talented. If Williams had landed on Denver as was rumored, both Williams and Stewart could have finished the year as top 10 Fantasy RBs. Being stuck on the same team essentially eliminates the possibility of either one of them finishing as a top 10 back. I expect their share of the carries to get a little closer to even this year, with a 60-40 split. But they have an anemic supporting cast - Steve Smith still gets some respect but he's not in his prime, and with either Newton or Clausen at the helm, you can bet defenses will stack 8 in the box against Williams and Stewart. It's sad because of their extraordinary skills, but I cannot justify taking Williams before he third round or Stewart before the fifth.

JORDY NELSON
Nelson had a ton of sleeper hype among fantasy experts leading into the season based on his impressive Superbowl performance and the steady decline of Donald Driver. That hype came to a halt when the Packers opted to retain James Jones. They like something in the San Jose State alum so they're unlikely to give Nelson the snaps he would need to love up to the hype. Let Nelson go to someone else in your draft who THINKS he's brilliant for picking up an outdated Fantasy Mag on the drive to the draft that said Nelson is a sleeeeper. 

1 comments:

themiketrain said...

Of course, Tebow is also a big loser in this as he has no value now.

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