Draft Analysis

As the NFL free agency situation finally begins to settle down, it seems like the perfect time for my first fantasy draft! This is a fun "family and friends" league, so the strategy is quite different from an experts league. You'll notice I waited until the end for a TE because they all went too early for my taste in this casual league. However, in my upcoming expert league drafts, I hope to land an elite TE because a Vernon Davis could fall to the fifth or sixth round. He went in the third round last night. Always keep in mind who you're playing with and adjust your strategy accordingly (maybe your league-mates are experts or noobs, maybe they take QBs too early, maybe they're Dallas homers, etc). This was a 14 team league with passing TDs worth 6 points. Here's my final roster:

QB: Michael Vick
RB: Frank Gore
RB: DeAngelo Williams
WR: Mike Wallace
WR: Percy Harvin
W/R: Daniel Thomas
TE: Chris Cooley
K: Garrett Hartley
DEF: Dallas
BN: Santana Moss
BN: Mike Thomas
BN: Roy Williams
BN: Braylon Edwards
BN: Chris Beanie Wells
BN: Ricky Williams

I'm very happy with the team. I have some guys who I'm not particularly high on (DeAngelo, Braylon, Santana) but they came at the right price! Now for some quick player by player analysis:

Pick #12: Mike Vick
Drafting Vick is not for the faint of heart, or for dog-lovers. But he will destroy all other fantasy QBs, If he plays 16 games and comes even close to his per-game averages from last year. I know that's a big if, given his running style. You're much safer with an elite QB who doesn't scramble as much, but your upside is greater with those potential rushing yards and TDs. I was trying to grab a backup like Freeman, Flacco, or Orton, but they were all snatched just before my pick. This is a Yahoo league where you can make instant adds, so my plan is to be the first to pickup Vince Young if Vick goes down. 

Pick #17: Frank Gore
Gore's ADP slipped during talks of his contract holdout, but now that that's over, I'm surprised Gore is still going in the 2nd round. Of course Gore has had his fair share of injuries, but so have Steven Jackson, Darren McFadden, and Michael Turner, who are being drafted around and before Gore. He is one of the few true workhorses left in the league, and he is an absolute workhorse. As long as he's healthy, Gore will be out there on first down, second down, catching passes on third down, and punching it in on the goal line. 

Pick #40: Mike Wallace
Wallace is a tremendous deep threat, and the clear number one target with an elite QB in Ben Roethlisberger. I have him as the 5th best WR just outside of the elite 4 (Andre, Calvin, Roddy, and Fitzgerald). 

Pick #45: DeAngelo Williams
As mentioned, I don't love DeAngelo because the Carolina offense is pitiful and Jon Stewart significantly limits his upside. But we've seen what he can do in 2008. The guy is an incredible talent, and I'm happy to roll with him with a fourth round pick. 

Pick #68: Daniel Thomas
I would feel more confident with Thomas if there was no lockout and he had more time to get adjusted to the Miami offense. It looks like Ricky Williams ended up with the Ravens so Thomas doesn't have to worry about him. However, Reggie Bush was listed atop the depth chart in the first team roster. I'm not too worried about that though, as they want to make Thomas "earn the lead back role." Thomas (and all the unpredictable rookies) is a high upside, low downside pick here. 

Pick #73: Percy Harvin
I'm under no delusion that McNabb is in his prime. But I'm still a believer that McNabb can manage an offense, and Harvin will surely lead the team in targets and catches. Reports thus far have been glowing and Harvin is allegedly migraine-free.

Pick #96: Santana Moss
This is a boring, if not regretful pick. Of all 32 teams, the Redskins came out of free agency looking the worst. They got swindled on the Hayneworth acquisition and release, they have no Quarterback (unless you consider John Beck a quarterback), and a couple of geezers at WR. Still, Moss is a consistently okay player, and I could do worse for a bye-week flex fill-in. 

Pick #101: Chris "Beanie" Wells
I wanted Wells more than Moss, but I noticed that Yahoo (insanely) had Wells ranked at #132 overall, so I took a risk that he would still be there at the turnaround, and lucked out. Wells is reportedly looking "far more explosive" this year than last, and you can probably consider him the true starter, despite the presence of Ryan Williams. 

Pick #124: Mike Thomas
I thought this was another great value pick. Thomas is looking good in training camp and with the departure of the overrated Mike Sims-Walker, Thomas is the clear number one receiver with a capable QB in David Garrard. I love Thomas in these late rounds if you can get him too. 

Pick #129: Braylon Edwards
I don't love Braylon this year. When the ball is not going to Gore, Vernon Davis, or eventually a healthy Crabtree, then Edwards will have his chance to drop balls thrown by my home-team's stormin' Mormon, Alex Smith. Still, I'll take a late round flier on the potential that Smith can somehow get the ball downfield to Edwards, who is still a talented deep threat. 

Pick #152: Chris Cooley
I was debating grabbing a TE with my 10th pick, but Marcedes Lewis, Zach Miller, and Cooley were all available and I'd take any of those three at this point. Sure enough, Miller and Lewis were taken, making my 11th pick an easy choice. I snagged Cooley just before the last guy without a TE groaned and had to settle for Tony Moeaki. I am seriously concerned about Cooley's injury, but I'm hoping he's good to go by next month, otherwise I'll grab Jared Cook off the waiver wire. John Beck is the definition of weak sauce, but maybe he'll target Cooley frequently as a security blanket, as shaky QBs tend to do. 

Pick #157: Roy Williams
Though I planned on getting a backup QB or complimentary TE, there was no one available who was better than the other waiver wire fodder, so I snagged yet another value WR. Williams sucked it up in Dallas, but now he's reunited with good old Mike Martz and there's a strong possibility that Roy becomes the number one target for the gunslinger, Jay Cutler. It looks like Johnny Knox and Devin Hester are actually competing for the number two job. 

Pick #180: Ricky Williams
I assumed Williams would re-sign with Miami and be my handcuff to Daniel Thomas. Turns out he signed with the Ravens today so I'll have to trade him to the Ray Rice owner. 

Pick #185: Garrett Hartley
Pick #208: Dallas Defense
By far, the most important picks in the draft!

In the end, I'm happy with this balanced team. I may be able to trade one of the WRs in my stable of WRs with upside for an upgrade at TE or a solid backup QB. 

What do you think of this draft? Feel free to post your own draft for analysis, or email ffmvp1@gmail.com.