I participated in 2 drafts last night (simultaneously, which I do not recommend as it's highly stressful). One was a casual league with some friends; the other was a professional $125 buy-in league. There were a few commonalities:
1) I got an elite QB early because both scoring formats favor QBs. Remember to pay close attention to your league's scoring format!
2) Despite my article last week about how you can wait for a value TE to fall to you, I got stuck with crap for TEs in both leagues. The problem with TEs is that even though I think they belong spread out in terms of their value, inevitably a run on TEs begins. Once Clark is taken in the 3rd, Gates, Witten, Gonzalez, Finley, and Celek are all grabbed in the 3rd and 4th rather than going a little later where they belong.
3) There are more high-upside WR fliers than RB fliers. So if you're torn between an RB and a WR on your cheatsheet in the first 6 rounds, you should probably go with the RB, because you can stock up on Jabar Gaffney, Mike Williams, Louis Murphy, and/or Jacoby Jones late.
Besides these trends, the drafts felt extremely different in large part due to the competition. So in addition to noting your scoring format, be sure to remind yourself who you're playing against. In a casual coworker league where everyone throws in $10, you can wait until Arian Foster or Bernard Berrian is just outside of the top 10 best available players on the draftboard before grabbing them in the 7th or 8th round. In a more competitive league, you have to get these "sleepers who are waking up" early. In the high-stakes league, it seemed like in each round, all the quality guys I was targeting were taken just before my pick. In the casual league, I had my pick of the litter and there are still tons of guys who should be owned on the waiver wire.
So let's fly threw my picks.
In the Professional league, you start 3 WRs, 2 RBs, and a flex. You get a point for 20 passing yards, and a passing TD is 6 points. 14 teams, and 19 roster spots. There was 1 point per reception, but .5 points per reception for RBs.
My picks are in order below, with the overall pick number next to them. There was a 3rd round reversal.
4. Ray Rice - A stud, especially in 1/2 PPR because he led all RBs in receptions last year.
25. Shonn Greene - Jets ran more than any team in the NFL last year, and it wasn't even close.
39. Steve Smith (Carolina) - Smith is a physical beast. He's dropping too low because of that flag football arm injury, but he's healed.
46. Matt Schaub - In this scoring format, I can't believe an elite QB fell this far. Schaub led all QBs in passing yards last season.
67. Percy Harvin - Harvin will be a headache to own (pun intended!) because of his unpredictable migraines. But I expect Harvin to be Favre's #1 target with Sidney Rice out. This could be a steal.
74. Felix Jones - Jones is going earlier in most leagues, but experts know that Marion Barber's talent will prevent Jones from running away with the starting gig. But I thought the price was about right.
95. Robert Meachem - Meachem should be healed from the toe injury. I expect Meachem to be #2 in production in New Orleans, behind only Marques Colston.
102. Fred Jackson - C.J. Spiller is getting all the hype, but Jackson is a talented workhorse.
123. Braylon Edwards - In a 3 WR league, I'm a little worried that I don't exactly have an elite WR trio. So I start to grab a bunch of WRs with upside.
130. Jerricho Cotchery - I'm hoping at least 1 of these 2 Jets will be startable. And if one flops or is injured, the other's value shoots up.
151. Jacoby Jones - I put my money where my mouth is with these next 3 picks; they all appeared in my sleepers article this week.
158. Louis Murphy - Ruh-ruh-ruh Raiderzzzzzzz!
179. Kareem Huggins - I really think this guy will be starting for Tampa Bay at some point this season.
186. Mercedes Lewis - Ughhh. Literally every TE worth owning was drafted, and drafted too early in my opinion.
207. Colts Def
214. James Jones - You may recall I placed Jones in my "Comas" list as an overhyped sleeper, but at pick 214?? It's a lottery ticket worth buying.
235. Bears Def
242. Robbie Gould
263. Sammy Morris - There's been quite a bit of negative news on Maroney this week, so Morris may have value.
My Casual League with friends.
This 12 team league has standard rosters and scoring. No PPR, and 6 points for passing TDs.
5. Frank Gore - The Inconvenient Truth!
20. Peyton Manning - Extremely safe pick, especially with 6 points per passing TD. Only downside - he likely won't be playing week 16 when I need him most. I'll find someone - don't you worry.
29. Marques Colston - Would it surprise you if Colston ended the year as a top 5 WR? It wouldn't surprise me.
44. Matt Forte - Yeah, he was a "bust" last year, but still finished with 1400 all purpose yards. Not bad.
53. Michael Crabtree - What can I say, I'm a bit of a Niner's homer.
68. C.J. Spiller - I got Fred Jackson in the other draft at almost the same time. This was not a steal, but there is the upside.
77. Santana Moss - Looking like the favorite target of a great QB, McNabb.
92. Jeremy Maclin - #2 guy in what should be a prolific passing game.
101. Jerome Harrison - I wrote here about playing conservatively by taking 2 guys from the same committee to protect your lead, when you feel confident about the draft so far. I felt confident.
116. Montario Hardesty - Complete the package.
125. Tim Hightower - Hightower was second of all RBs in catches last season. Whether it's Leinart or Anderson, the Arizona QB will likely be checking down quite a bit.
140. Jerricho Cotchery - Good price.
149. Jabar Gaffney - Again, Gaffney was a sleeper in my column earlier this week.
164. Jeremy Shockey - No other TE came to me at a good value. But as I wrote in the TE column, in standard leagues if this happens to you, you can just take a mediocre guy like Shockey and monitor the other free agents like Tony Scheffler, Kevin Boss, or Fred Davis.
173. San Diego - Ooops, I forgot to draft a kicker! I've done this in a few drafts. I'll likely drop Gaffney for a kicker just before week 1. But in 1 other draft, rather than dropping my last pick, I dropped Ben Tate for a kicker. Who knows which of these guys will be placed on Injured Reserve in the next 2 weeks.
Happy Drafting!
4 comments:
I like that completing the committee idea - very smart, kid.
If there's a rule about trading in professional leagues, wouldn't there be more incentive to fill the roster (i.e. make sure you have a start-able tight end) rather than always taking players for value when they come? THOUGHTS
That's a good point, Jackie. Knowing that I couldn't trade for a TE in the future, I was willing to take any TE a round earlier than he appears on my draft-sheet. But every TE seemed to be taken 3 rounds too early. For example, when Greg Olsen was the best available TE, there were 35 players I had ranked higher than him in my top 200. I'll have to be the first to snatch up any breakout TE.
I may regret it, but i'm buying into the niner's offense big time this year! davis, gore, crabtree, alex smith, and even joe nedney will be fantsy stars
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