Hot or Not: Week 4

Three games is a small sample size, but it's enough to start seeing some trends. For example, I'm buying Detroit's defense, which is currently giving up the 30th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. With Romo's injury concerns, he should be on your bench if you have other decent options. On the other hand, the Super Bowl Champion Packers are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but that doesn't mean you should rush to get Kyle Orton in your lineup. This is a fluke. The Pack has had points put up on them by Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Jay Cutler - that doesn't mean everybody can do it. So for the first time this year in Hot or Not, I'm going to put the opponent's rank in fantasy points given up, but we can't read too much into it yet. Since it's still early, there's still a lot of uncertainty, so I want to get to a bunch of guys, meaning it's another quantity over quality edition of Hot or Not:

HOT

Cam Newton v. CHI 11 (11th most fantasy points allowed to opposing QB)
Last week was the fluke, not Weeks 1 and 2. There was a frickin' monsoon and he still managed 16 fantasy points. You cannot underestimate the boost that a few nice runs provide for your fantasy day. It's too early to say the rookie is an every week must start, but it's fair to say he's a "should start" in anything but the toughest of matchups.  

Eli Manning v. ARZ 7
After a slow start to the season, Eli erupted against the Eagles last week, proving that he can find the endzone even without a fully healthy receiving corp. Plus, and I won't say this often, Eli did not turn the ball over once in this game. With Mario Manningham back, and against the Cardinals cupcake defense, Eli is a must-start. 

Jason Campbell v. NE 2
This is a sneaky play and not for the faint of heart. Campbell has been more of a game-manager so far this season, just handing the ball off to McFadden and letting him do his thing. I have no doubt that DMC will have another great game, but at the same time, DMC cannot rush all 5 TDs that it will take to stay competitive with the Patriots. Campbell will have to chuck the ball to keep up with Brady, and I have faith in him, and his talented young receivers - Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore. If you're in a pickle at QB, plug and play Campbell and don't be surprised when he gets you 2 or 3 TDs on Sunday. 

Rex Grossman v. STL 5
He made some mistakes against Dallas on MNF, but the Rams secondary is just so leaky. They let a rookie, Torrey Smith, humiliate them. I'm all-in on the Skins this week. 

Cedric Benson v. BUF 7
Hallelujah! He won't be suspended just yet, meaning you have to play him against this soft run defense. Count on 20+ carries for our jailbird friend. 

James Starks v. DEN 21
What the heck happened last week? Grant all of the sudden turned back the clock to 2008. The backfield situation would be a murky mess but-for Ryan Grant's injury situation. Grant is inactive, leaving James Starks with a golden opportunity to take back the reigns against the Broncos. 

McCluster v. MIN 5
Another sneaky play for those in deep leagues. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs gave Thomas Jones the first carry because he's the vet and nominal starter, but immediately worked in Bad-DMC because he gives them their only chance of winning. The bright-side of this matchup of the 0-3 teams is that someone has to win this game! Don't expect a huge game for McCluster, but 15 touches for 75 yards is within reach.  

LeGarrette Blount v. IND 10
Yeah, Indy shut down Rashard Mendenhall and I can't really explain that. But it was a huge relief to see the Bucs pound Blount right up the middle 24 times on Sunday. The Bucs will try to beat the Colts on the ground, and I cannot wait to see what Blount can do if he gets another 24 carries on Monday Night Football.  

Tim Hightower v. STL 4
Hightower is probably an every-week starting RB2, but I just wanted to emphasize how bad the Rams have looked. I'm licking my chops as a Hightower-owner.  

Steve Smith (CAR) v. CHI 21
Like Newton, I'm mostly buying the first 2 weeks and throwing out the Week 3 dud. The Bears have given up a lot of long passes this season so expect plenty of bombs to Smith. He only needs to catch one to make a nice fantasy day, but has the upside potential of catching several.  

Percy Harvin v. KC 12
Percy was seen throwing up in a garbage can on the sidelines on Sunday after a big hit. If you're disturbed as his fantasy-owner, imagine how Oscar the Grouch felt when he looked up to see a Viking vom'ing on him! But Harvin says he's totally fine, and it was great to see the Vikes increase his snap count from about 50% to 75%. I've said it once, I'll say it 1,000 times: Minnesota will be creative in forcing the ball into their best receiver's hands.   

Santonio Holmes v. BAL 7
Holmes disappointed in Week 3 with just one catch. After complaining about his low target count though, I expect the Jets to feed him the ball. The squeaky wheel gets the grease and whatnot. The Jets have a better chance of beating the Ravens through the air than on the ground. I foresee a bounce-back game from Holmes. 

Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore v. NE 1
See the Jason Campbell analysis above. And yes, I think there will be enough passing yards for this week at least to support both WRs.  

Scott Chandler v. CIN 7
Four TDs in three weeks? That's an impossible rate to keep up, but he's worth starting in nice matchups because of that potential. 

Greg Olsen v. CHI 3
If not for stupid Jeremy Shockey usurping targets, Olsen could really step up to the next level. After 7 catches for 57 yards, a TD, and the icing on the cake: a 2-Point-Conversion, it's safe to insert Olsen into your lineup. I'm starting him over Fred Davis this week, because to be honest, I'm just so unsure of what to make of the Davis/Cooley situation. Besides Steve Smith, Olsen should be the second leading receiver again because after those two, the Panthers got nothin.

NOT 

Josh Freeman v. IND 25

Freeman is off to an utterly disappointing start, and I expect it to continue at least for this week. As mentioned with Blount, I see the Bucs running and running some more, meaning Freeman will be relegated to a game-manager role. 

Matt Hasselbeck v. CLE 27
Hasselbeck was a hot waiver pickup after his 22 point performance on Sunday, and he did that without Kenny Britt for the most part. Still, I just don't see it happening with his receiving options. Yes, I like Nate Washington a lot as a waiver add, but he's nowhere near Britt, and Matt's other options will be Damian Williams and Jared Cook. This will be a big test to see if Matt is really having a comeback, but I'm not buying it.   

DeAngelo Williams v. CHI 16
Obvi. 

Knowshon Moreno v. GB 27
Moreno is back practicing in full, but he has played awful and is letting McGahee turn this into a fullblown committee. I'd actually buy-low on Moreno, but only if you're buying really low because he's more talented than McGahee. But this is not the right matchup. Keep both RBs firmly on benches. 

Shonn Greene v. BAL 30
This season, Greene is averaging 3.3 yards-per-carry and just 45 rushing yards per game, and that was against average run defenses. Against one of the league's toughest, I expect another crappy game from the untalented back.