Hot or Not: Week 3 - Start Fred Davis over Dallas Clark

I'm a big believer in self-reflection and introspection - it keeps me zen. So let's review how we did last week in the Hot or Not column: We told you not to panic on Vincent Jackson, Owen Daniels, Peyton Hillis, and Jeremy Maclin. We told you to start Meachem, Starks, Wells, Hightower, and both New England TEs. Unfortunately, we also told you to start Knox, Burress, and Mike Tolbert - Oops! We told you to bench Austin Collie, Mike Thomas, DeAngelo Williams, and Ryan Grant. Unfortunately, we also told you to bench Cam Newton. We won't make that mistake again...

HOT

Cam Newton
If Cam Newton can get it done against the Packers, he can get it done against the Jaguars. Sure, he'll make some rookie mistakes. But hey, if he throws a pick-six, that just means he'll get the ball right back with even more reason to sling it deep. And if the Jags made Matt Hasselbeck look good, they should be able to do the same for Cammy.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
The Harvard man is on fire, and is in the top 5 fantasy QBs thusfar. I can say a lot of great things about the Patriots, but not about their secondary. Chad Henne and Phil Rivers excelled against the Pats, and Fitzpatrick should do the same. If he was drafted at all, he was drafted to ride your bench, but he's a top ten QB start this week.

Ben Tate
Arian Foster has hinted that he will not play this weekend. Tate has put together two 100-yard games in a row, and that should continue against the Saints. The only possible concern is the possibility that the Saints blow out the Texans early, in which case we may see more Schaub than Tate, but I expect the Texans to stay in this game all day, meaning another heavy dose of the explosive Ben Tate. Start him even if Foster suits up.

Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews
In Week One, we recommended sitting both guys because of their 50-50 time split. It turns out, you only need half the carries in San Diego to be effective. Both RBs are top ten fantasy RBs so far. It was unclear whether Tolbert would play this weekend but now it's looking very likely that he will suit up. The Chiefs are a disaster - they already lost Tony Moeaki, then their best defensive player in Eric Berry, and then their best offensive player in Jamaal Charles. The month of September usually means shiny apples on new teachers' desks, and the Chargers choking. But I just cannot envision a scenario in which the Chargers don't blow out the Chiefs this week. Start Mathews and Tolbert with confidence.

Kevin Ogletree
This is a sneaky play for those in deeper leagues (or those who are desperate in standard leagues.) Miles Austin is of course out, and potentially Dez Bryant too - first he's likely, then he's doubtful, now he's likely again - he's flip-flopping more than John Kerry! (I know football fans love a good stale 2004 political joke!) The reality TV star, Jesse Holley, may have an increased role, but it's Ogletree who I'm targeting in deeper leagues. I expect Romo to play and Ogletree is a good bet for 60+ yards against the Skins on Monday Night Football.

David Nelson
Like we said about Fitzpatrick, we believe in the Bills passing game, and believe in the crappiness of the Patriots secondary. The Pats are especially weak against slot receivers. The loss of Roscoe Parrish means Nelson could actually lead the team in targets this week, even though Stevie Johnson will play. Nelson is a solid flex play.

Fred Davis
Davis is en fuego! Through two weeks, Davis is a top 5 fantasy TE and is second in yards only to Jason Witten. Dallas is currently giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing TEs. You can't read much into those stats yet, so this isn't really based on the opponent - it's based on the impressive Skins passing game. I'd start Freddy over Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez, Dustin Keller, and even Dallas Clark.

NOT

Jay Cutler
The most-sacked QB in the NFL does not get a break this week against the Pack. Clay Matthews may not play, but I'm still scared for Jay. I'm not just scared of starting Cutler in fantasy leagues, I'm scared for his real life safety. The Bears are going to run more this weekend, so keep Cutler out of lineups.

Sam Bradford
You know I love me some Sammy B. But not yet - the Rams are still finding their rhythm and are missing Amendola and likely Steven Jackson. More importantly, they're playing the Ravens. You have to have a better option.

Mark Ingram
The Saints will keep trying to feed Ingram the ball and hope he breaks out into their workhorse back, but he's been ineffective so far this season. The "goalline threat" is yet to score. So you can't blame the Saints for working in Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles who are simply doing a lot more with their touches than Ingram. Furthermore, the Texans Run D is for reals. Hopefully you have a better option than Ingram this week.

Steven Jackson (or any other Ram RB)
Whether Steven Jackson plays, Cadillac Williams plays, or some combo of Jerious Norwood and Quinn Porter, you don't want any piece of this big dinged up committee against the Ravens. Don't touch it.

Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas
Did Daniel Thomas just go from a handcuff to a featured back in one week? Maybe. But with only two weeks, it's anyone's guess how the split will shake out this week. (My guess, incidentally, is that Thomas will get 60% of the carries to Bush's 40%). Unlike the Chargers, the Dolphins likely cannot support two solid fantasy RBs. So if you have another option, let's wait and see. If you have both guys and have to start one, I'd definitely go with Thomas.

Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno
If the Dolphins cannot support two viable fantasy RBs, the Broncos definitely can't. In Week 1, they cancelled each other out. In Week 2, McGahee had a nice game but if you were to divide his production amongst two backs, it would be mediocre. I think once Moreno is fully healthy, he'll have the clear lead here, but he's not fully lengthy yet. So expect a value-killing 50-50 split this weekend.

Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster
Now I feel like a broken record. The Chiefs will be lucky to get to double digit points this weekend, which doesn't spell much success for their two RBs. Thomas Jones will start and should get a few more carries, but the Chargers will get up big and soon, so the Chiefs will have to throw, which should mean more McCluster in the second half. I think Jones has the better day, but if you have to start one I'd go with the bad-DMC because he at least the possibility of a few big plays.

Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon
This may be obvious, but I just wanted to remind you to bench these fools. If Collie has under 40 yards again, cut him.

Dallas Clark
Clark has been mediocre with crappy Kerry Collins throwing him the ball. This week, he'll be face-to-face with Mr. Head and Shoulders himself, Troy Polamalu. I don't expect big things. I'd start all those guys I mentioned above over Clark - Fred Davis, Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez, and Dustin Keller.

Best of luck in Week Three! 

I'll be watching with some goodies I bought from Jerome Simpson!