Throw Out The Golden Rules

 

Five years ago, every fantasy expert from ESPN to Rotoworld advanced three golden rules:

1)   Draft two elite RBs in the first two rounds.

2)   Handcuff your studs.

3)   Always watch for bye weeks.

Today, it’s time to tell you to throw these rules out the window. The NFL is a dynamic league, changing every year. The emergence of RB committees and the increasing importance of the passing game mean we ought to re-evaluate the orthodox strategy.

1)   You don’t need to draft 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds.

A few years ago, many teams featured just one workhorse RB. Standard 12 team fantasy leagues with 2 RBs and a flex typically were starting 30 RBs each week. Yet there were essentially only 32 starting RBs in the NFL. So when the bye weeks started, those without RB depth were forced to start backups. Looking to Value-Based Drafting (VBD), the VBD of those few solid RBs was much greater because the possible RB replacements you could find on the waiver wire were nothing comparatively. 

  

Today, fantasy prognosticators opine about Running-Back-By-Committees (RBBCs) as if RBBCs were killing their team only. The reality is RBBCs affect all owners equally; it simply means you ought to re-evaluate the relative importance of each position. This year, teams will likely be starting characters like Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart, and Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert. There are plenty of RBs to go around. Of course, I have nothing against drafting 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds. But you can build a perfectly competitive team by grabbing Aaron Rodgers and Roddy White in the first two rounds. In fact, if you grabbed your QB, TE, and 3 WRs in the first 5 rounds, your RBs will not be your team’s forte (especially since you missed your chance to draft Matt Forte!), but here are some RBs you can snag in the 6^th, 7^th, and 8^th rounds according to their current Average Draft Position (ADP): Cedric Benson, Daniel Thomas, Marshawn Lynch, Beanie Wells, Joe Addai, Mike Tolbert, Tim Hightower, and Pierre Thomas.

Matthew Berry of ESPN is advancing a unique strategy this year: Go out of your way to get Mike Vick and Antonio Gates, and then load up on 6 RBs and 5 WRs; one of them is bound to click. His quantity over quality approach is appealing to me. However, I never enter a draft with a stubborn draft plan like that. Perhaps based on a unique scoring system, I will upgrade the value of all QBs for example. But everyone has a price, and I’m always looking for value. I don’t love getting a QB in the first round because another QB could fall to a cheap price later on in the draft. If I grab Vick in the 1^st round, and then Matt Ryan falls to the 9^th, then I’ll feel like there is a great value on the table that I can’t take advantage of. (I don’t like to rely on the ability to trade away players for a fair value because other owners are so cheap and/or scared to trade). The same goes for grabbing the first TE off the board. If, for example, you view Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley, and Jason Witten as equals, then you should wait and see who falls the latest and grab him at a great value.

So I would love to end up with Ray Rice and Darren McFadden in the first two rounds, but I don’t feel like I have to get them. Be flexible and you’re sure to be happy with your team at the end of the draft.

2)   You don’t need to handcuff your studs.

 

Whether you handcuff should depend on the depth of your league, your stud RB’s propensity to get injured, the method for adding players in your league, your own risk-aversion, and the backup RB situation. Sometimes, there is no clear handcuff. If you draft BenJarvus Green-Ellis, do you handcuff him to Danny Woodhead? Shane Vereen? Stevan Ridley? All 3? If you want to handcuff Arian Foster, it’s unclear whether to handcuff him to Ben Tate or Derrick Ward. It’s also likely that if any of the aforementioned studs get injured, it will be a combination of those backups who step up and share the load, rather than one being anointed the new feature-back.

Some players have backups who are not must-starts, but are more than strictly handcuffs. If I draft DeAngelo Williams, Knowshon Moreno, or Shonn Greene, I do not feel compelled to grab Jonathan Stewart, Willis McGahee, or LT at their expensive draft prices. And again, it’s not entirely clear that those backups will become feature-backs in the event of an injury.  

Some players do have clear backups: Adrian Peterson has Toby Gerhart, and MJD has Rashad Jennings. I have no problem with the cautious fantasy-manager (aka fantasizer) grabbing Gerhart or Jennings in the 13^th round, just before getting their Kicker and Defense. But here’s where being injury-prone matters: handcuffing AP is a comforting insurance, handcuffing MJD is a must. The same goes for my Bay Area Bruisers, Darren McFadden and Frank Gore – though it’s harder because Michael Bush comes at a high price, and Frank Gore owners have to choose between Anthony Dixon and Kendall Hunter.

The depth of your league and method of adding free agents is also an important factor. I’m in some 10 team leagues where free agents can be added by anyone at any time. (Some people hate these leagues because it requires owners to be glued to the screen, but I love them. It’s an exciting race to see who pulls the trigger when an RB first appears slow to get up.) In these leagues, the handcuffs are unlikely to be drafted, and if you’re watching all the games anyway, you can just be sure that you’re the first to the waiver wire to grab Snelling if your Michael Turner goes down. In deeper leagues and/or leagues where players are all on waivers until Wednesday, the Turner-owner cannot rely on the ability to add Snelling because Snelling may already be drafted (in the 17^th round), or someone with a higher waiver priority of free agent budget will get Snelling. In those leagues, it’s more important to draft Snelling.

Finally, to a certain extent, it depends on whether you’ve got big brass balls or ovaries. Remember, fantasy football is about winning, not finishing in the top half so throw caution to the wind. Handcuffing Toby Gerhart to AP allows you spend 2 draft picks ensuring that you will own the one starting Minnesota RB. I’d rather take AP in the 1^st round and Rashad Jennings in the 13^th. If AP gets hurt and MJD stays healthy all season, I’ve got nothing. But if AP stays healthy and MJD misses time (the more likely scenario), then I’ve got 2 starting RBs!

3)   Bye weeks?!? Don’t talk about bye weeks! You kidding me?

To borrow from the legendary Jim Mora playoff rant, passing up a better player because of bye weeks is silly. The old logic was that you never wanted two of your starters to share the same bye week because you’d be at a severe disadvantage that week. It makes sense to either spread out the byes so no two overlap, OR to make ALL your byes line up the same week so that you take the loss on that one week, and are at full strength the rest of the season. Still, I never think about bye weeks when drafting except in two cases: backup QBs and TEs. I typically don’t even draft a backup QB or TE, but if I do in a deeper league, I’ll just make sure that my backup doesn’t share a bye with my starter. If I have Antonio Gates, then I would never bench him for anybody. So in the 12^th round, when deciding between Jared Cook and Greg Olsen, I’ll take Olsen because the one week I would start the backup during Gates’ bye, Cook is also on his bye.

Otherwise, I don’t bother to look at bye weeks because my starting roster will look entirely different by midseason. Guys on my bench will explode and become starters, my starters will get injured, I will have new hot waiver wire adds, or I will wheel and deal my starters in trades. Your team should always be dynamic, because we know the NFL is.

In conclusion, be flexible with your draft. Don’t stubbornly cling to any one strategy. Just let the value picks fall to you when they do. And if you end up not getting an RB until the 5^th round, have no handcuffs, and your entire team is on a bye in week 8, don’t sweat it. You can still win your league.