Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Someone's Gotta Catch A Few Balls Around Here

Are you chomping at the bit to draft WRs who are catching passes from the likes of Andy Dalton and Colt McCoy? Probably not. And for good reason. Most of your league-mates probably have the same reluctance to draft WRs from the worst teams in the NFL, but that reluctance means you can snatch up these late round fliers on the cheap. Even if the situation is not ideal, someone has to be catching some passes, meaning there is potentially overlooked value. So here are the training camp battles that I'll be keeping a close eye on, in order to find the best of the worst this preseason.

CLEVELAND
Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie
Generally speaking, no matter how awful a passing game is, the leading receiver on any one team is at least fantasy relevant. Oakland under Jamarcus Russell provided a notable exception because he was just that awful. Cleveland probably comes the closest to potentially being useless this year. I have very little confidence in Colt McCoy, but I'm keeping an eye on Greg Little. Although the team would like Massaquoi to be the leading receiver, he has a bone injury in his foot that will sideline him for a while. The depth chart currently lists rookie Little as the team's WR1, in spite of a few drops early in camp. Little had a decent season with the Tarheels as an RB and a WR, so you can expect some end-around runs from him. He may be worth a chance in the last round of a deep league; otherwise, just keep an eye on him and be prepared to add him if he clicks.


OAKLAND
Jacoby Ford, Chaz Schilens, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, Denarius Moore
Each of these guys has been labeled a "sleeper" at some point this year or last. The latest depth chart indicates that Jacoby Ford is the starting WR1 and DHB is the starting WR2, with Schilens and Murphy behind them respectively. Moore is a rookie, buried on the depth chart, but he has apparently been the most impressive receiver in camp so far. This is clearly a situation to monitor because Jason Campbell is not a bad QB and we all know the Raiders will be passing as they come from behind in games. DHB is returning from an injury and he simply hasn't looked capable when he has played. As of now, the only Raider receiver worth drafting is Jacoby Ford. Did you know that in the second half of last season (the final 8 games), Ford averaged 12.4 points per game in PPR leagues and 9.8 points per game in standard leagues? Granted, those games were inconsistent due to alternating weeks with long TDs followed by stinkers. Still, he's certainly worth a late round flier. Defenses will have to focus on McFadden, freeing up Ford to hopefully step up big time this year. The hype is growing on this sleeper, so if you want him for dirt cheap, hopefully your draft is sooner rather than later.

ST. LOUIS
Mike Sims-Walker, Danny Amendola, Danario Alexander, Brandon Gibson, Donnie Avery, Greg Salas, Austin Pettis
Amendola and Gibson are currently listed as the starting WR1 and 2. Gibson has been impressive so far in camp, but rookies Salas and Pettis are also learning Josh McDaniel's system very quickly. Avery had an impressive streak two seasons ago, but he is currently healing from a torn ACL. Alexander is sitting out with an injury of his own, but the analysts at Rotoworld say he "has the potential to be the best receiver on the Rams." Meanwhile, Sims-Walker has the biggest name after a great '09 season in Jacksonville, but is not even listed as a starter. In McDaniel's system and with an improving Sam Bradford, I can tell you for sure that one of these seven guys will be good this year. But if I were to pick which one, I would be guessing. If I'm drafting in a slightly deeper league today, I'll take Gibson or Amendola in the last round. Otherwise, I plan to monitor their pre-season performances and depth chart moves closely, because there's something here.


JACKSONVILLE 
Mike Thomas, Jason Hill
There may be some sleeper potential for Hill, but Thomas should lead all Jags in receptions, with Marcedes Lewis coming in second. Last season, Thomas posted a reasonable 66 catches for 820 yards, and 4 TDs. He outplayed the nominal number one target in Mike Sims-Walker by catching 65% of his targets compared to MSW's 54%. With MSW out of the picture, Thomas is sure to put up at least 1000 yards. He's a steal at his current ADP of 102. I'd much rather have him than Johnny Knox, who was a favorite of mine last year but is currently not even a starter, yet has an ADP of 91.

Roy Williams Roy Williams #11 of the Chicago Bears works out during a summer training camp practice at Olivet Nazarene University on August 6, 2011 in Bourbonnais, Illinois.
CHICAGO
Roy Williams, Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester
Last year, when the Bears brought in Mike Martz to accompany the gunslinger Jay Cutler, the debate all summer was whether Johnny Knox or Devin Aromashodu would be the star beneficiary. We correctly predicted Knox, though he was underwhelming. Still, it's baffling that Knox was benched in favor of Hester and Williams, who are currently listed as the starting WRs. Roy Willams had his 1300+ yard season under Martz, and I'm willing to take the chance that they can reignite the magic together again. I worry a little that Hester will cannibalize some of Williams' potential, but I'm excited to see what Roy can do in the preseason. I'm not touching any of the other guys in my drafts.


CINCINNATI
A.J. Green, Jerome Simpson
Green was the number 4 overall draft pick and is currently listed as the number one receiver. Early reports say "he catches everything" in camp. I'd take Green at his ADP of 83 if not for his horrible QB situation with either Andy Dalton or Bruce Gradkowski at the helm. I'm not touching a mediocre Simpson, but if I can get Green in the 9th, I'll take a chance.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Haha. Mike Thomas looks like a G in that picture.

LouisLouis said...

Amendola will be a PPR machine this year! 100+ catches!

Anonymous said...

I thought Mike Simswalker would be auonatic new number one? Why am I wrong?

FF MVP said...

As mentioned, MSW has the biggest name, but he's not even starting. MSW was downright bad last year on the Jags. Let someone else draft the name, and take Amendola or Gibson. With an improving Sam Bradford, and no other elite pass-catchers, both Amendola and Gibson could have big years.

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