Where Fantasy Football and Real Football Diverge

How can you be so cruel? In the most important fantasy game of the year, you let down my team with a lackluster half-game performance. Worse yet, perhaps you do not play at all. Sometimes, I cannot help but feel like my fantasy team players care more about their NFL teams than they do about my fantasy team.

Alas, we must all brace for the cold hard reality of weeks 16 and 17. Games that mean everything to fantasy footballers may mean nothing whatsoever to the NFL players and teams. Often times, teams have clinched their playoff positions by Weeks 16 or 17. In other words, NFL teams have not only guaranteed themselves spots in the NFL playoffs by Weeks 16 or 17, they have guaranteed themselves specific spots in the playoffs. It literally does not matter whether they win or lose.

Not surprisingly, teams who are fortunate enough to have locked themselves into the playoffs have no desire to risk injury to their starting players in meaningless games. In 2005, Tom Brady threw a grand total of eight passes in the final game of the season. In 2008, Peyton Manning threw seven passes in the final game. Last year, Drew Brees did not play at all in the final game of the season.

The fantasy implications are twofold. First, the bad news: If your workhorse stud plays for a team that has clinched its playoff position, you may need to bench him in your fantasy football final or semifinal round matchup. Indeed, the owners of Brees, Manning, and Brady would have been severely disappointed had they started them in the games described above.

But alas, there is also good news: Although an NFL team may pull its starters, its opponent often does not. The vaunted defenses who played so well during the majority of the regular season are suddenly vulnerable. Consider Miami Dolphins runningback Ricky Williams. During 2005's week 10, Williams posted a total of 13 rushing yards on 11 carries against the New England Patriots. Yes, the 2005 Patriots really were that good. However, the Dolphins faced the Patriots again on the last game of the season in a freezing Gillette Stadium, the Patriots' formidable home turf. Did the Patriots crush Williams into the ground forcing him to regret his decision to return to football after a brief hiatus? Nope. The Patriots pulled their starters. And Williams ran for 108 yards and a touchdown.

At this point, the New England Patriots look like the most likely candidate to pull their starters during the final week of the season. The Patriots are the only first place team in the NFL who currently hold a lead of more than one game over its next closest opponent. However, the Patriots hold just a one game lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC. If the Patriots want to have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, then every game may matter. Fortunately or unfortunately, it appears there is a lot of parity in the NFL this year.

Keep a close eye on how the NFL teams perform these next few weeks. That may determine whether your fantasy players will play when you need them most. Your season could depend on it.