They Aren't Who We Thought They Were

We are eight weeks into the NFL season, and probably your fantasy football season as well. NFL teams now have track records from which we can glean insight into how they operate. Remember back in 2006 when Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green said “they are who we thought they were, and we let them off the hook” after blowing a 20-point lead and then losing a home game to the Chicago Bears? His comment may have been more insightful than perhaps he intended. The Cardinals left the Bears off the hook because they lost the psychological battle. The Bears became the better team because the Cardinals perceived them as such.


In fantasy football, your opponent’s team won’t become the better team simply because you perceived them as the better team. However, your team may become the worse team if you cling to your preseason perceptions. Teams and players are no longer who you thought they were; they are who they are. Remember the lackluster Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders and their disappointing and inconsistent running games. Today, they lead the league in rushing yards. Remember the Dallas Cowboys and the beastly dynamic duo of Marion Barber and Felix Jones. The Cowboys are second to last in rushing yards.

Before the season started, pundits expected Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton to quickly lose his job to Tim Tebow. Today Orton is one of the more dominant quarterbacks in the league with more yards than Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. The New York Giants backfield was a question mark after Brandon Jacobs‘ colossal collapse in 2009.  Now Ahmad Bradshaw is fourth in the NFL in overall rushing yards, with more yards per game than Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Frank Gore.  Journeyman wide receiver Brandon Lloyd was ranked number 262 on Yahoo’s preseason fantasy projections.  Lloyd now leads the league in receiving yards, with more yards in 8 games than he has had before in an entire season.  As the Rotoworld staff would say,  Orton, Lloyd, and Bradshaw are “real and they’re spectacular.”

Hold on to your “real/spectacular” players if you have them, and acquire them if you do not.  Take advantage of the Dennis Green-esque managers in your league who cling to their preseason perceptions despite a half season of evidence to the contrary.  The mantra for fantasy teams with losing records is simple: win now.  The time for hoarding potential superstars is over.  It won’t matter if your sleepers produce in December if you are sitting on a 1-10 record.  You need quality starters in every position now.  Scour the waiver wire.  Propose trades.  Make moves.

But if your team is coasting and your leading your league, congratulations!  Take a look at your potential fantasy playoff matchups.  Perhaps you can afford to acquire a potential breakout star.  Cleveland’s Jerome Harrison, a relatively unknown running back, busted loose for more than 400 yards and 4 touchdowns during the 2009 fantasy semifinal and final rounds.  You can afford to sacrifice an average fantasy producer on your bench in order to acquire the next potential Jerome Harrison.

On that note, pick up LeGarette Blount.  Do it now.  Don’t be Dennis Green.  Base your fantasy decisions on reality; not perception.  And finally… good luck!