Monday, November 8, 2010

Game Recaps - Week 9

 ...just when things were starting to make sense....

Patriots (14) at Browns (34)
When I woke up yesterday morning, I thought "finally, the Patriots are emerging as THE team to beat in the NFL." Then suddenly they drop their second loss of the season to the Cleveland Browns. But hold your horses for one moment: the Browns aren't THAT bad. First, consider that they rolled over the defending champion Saints last week - and they almost beat the Chiefs AND the Ravens during Weeks 2 and 3. Yesterday's hero was, surprise surprise, Peyton Hillis. Running like a bowling ball rolls, Hillis scored two TDs, racked up 184 yards, and - to add insult to injury if you were facing him - got 36 yards in the passing game. This guy is legit and is our midseason pick for "Pick Up Of The Year." You should be starting him against anybody. He is basically the only Brown you can be starting. I know cute GMs want to find ways and excuses to start Massaquoi - and yesterday may have given you some ammo. But he's got two goose eggs on the season. You can't really trust any receiving option on a team where the leading target was thrown to 4 times. You might be starting Ben Watson - but after stringing together four straight weeks of 4+ reception ballgames, Watson has quietly had consecutive games with only one grab in each contest. He remains the team's leading receiver - so he is worth owning. But think about some matchup-based plays at the TE position (Heap or Shockey, for example) down the stretch to remain competitive.


Despite the losing effort, Tom Brady still posted great numbers tossing two TDs with no interceptions. You are starting him as an elite QB1 - but you already know this. The Moss-less Patriots actually look like they will lead to more ball-spreading - which is great if you own Hernandez. This top TE scored twice yesterday and will likely be one of the big 3 tight ends from here out. You MIGHT even be picking up Ron Gronkowski who was targeted 8 times yesterday - or the second most on the squad. Though there isn't much of a track-record, if you lost Dallas Clark, take a chance on him. Wes Welker is suffering without Moss. There is no doubt. He has averaged 3.6 catches over his past three games - which is not the elite numbers you began to expect. The real story is still Woodhead. He is playing like Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk combined. He only had 92 all-purpose yards yesterday - but he split the carries in half and was targeted 5 times. Throw in the fact that in many leagues you can start him as a WR or a RB and this guy is a stud. He should be owned by now, but if he isn't, grab him!!

Bucs (21) v. Falcons (27)
Atlanta is quietly becoming the best team in the NFC. Michael Turner is the 10th best RB in most formats - but that should fall soon. He has matchups against the Ravens and Packers. But he is one of the few bona fide workhorse backs in the league. Maybe you have an opportunity to steal him from an uninformed owner over the next several weeks. He did nothing in the passing game - and you shouldn't expect him to have done anything there this season. He will always be a tough, consistent runner - but don't expect a 25+ point outburst from Turner when he's not a receiving threat. Matt Ryan is doing what he's been doing all season - but he's not carrying any teams at this point, and you shouldn't expect him to. It was nice, however, to see Tony Gonzalez play like a top tier TE racking in 8 catches. If you own him, you're starting him. You're not dropping him and you're not trading him for what you paid for him. You probably aren't taking chances on any waiver wire TE's to start over him. So I think you just ride him out and hope he remains as dangerous as he was yesterday. Michael Jenkins had two big catches yesterday - but he's not consistent enough to be in fantasy starting lineups. Roddy White disappointed yesterday but he still has the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL. Start him with pride and know that yesterday's game - which was the worst of his season - wasn't that bad.

I hope you own Blount by now. He is clearly getting the rock the most. His numbers weren't great yesterday but he should be owned everywhere and starting as a flex option. Mike Williams? Yes, he's the truth. He was sick yesterday. He's a borderline WR1 even despite mediocre QB support. Keep in mind he had only 4 catches yesteday despite 10 targets. These weren't drops; these were balls pulling him out-of-bounds or throws that were uncatchable. Expect his numbers to go up, up, up. Kellen Winslow was "ehhh" and is part of the quickly fading crew of once-steady TE options. I'm still starting him, but I would recommend looking for sexier options week-to-week than relying on K-dubs in the playoffs.

Bears (22) v. Bills (19)
The Bills have to be the best un-un-defeated team of all time. There were a number of points in this game where it looked like they might just pull off the W. Fitzpatrick didn't have gawdy numbers, but he is a GREAT bye week option. Think of him like Jon Kitna of three years ago. He should be losing for most of the season and he has some weaponry. I like Mr. Blue-collar. Give up on the Bills' running game. Nobody is emerging, and nobody should be starting. It is time, however, to start Steve Johnson each week. He better be owned in your league. 11 catches is no joke.  If the Bills keep losing, they will keep throwing.

The Bears still stink. Cutler threw two touchdowns and you probably can still start him, but you should be disappointed. Forte got 61 all-purpose yards. He may find the end zone, but he is far from a top option. Chester Taylor didn't do much either. At this point, no Bears running back can be trusted. The recevers disappointed all around in what looked like it could have been a field day. Greg Olsen led the team in targets (8) but won't lead your team to fantasy success.

Jets (23) v. Lions (20)
The Jets barely got away with this one winning with an OT field goal. Many thought Sanchez would have a respectable game in what looked like it could have been a soft matchup for the Jets. Sanchez threw for 300+ yards for the first time all season - but didn't do much else worth noting. His 1/1 TD/INT ratio was unspectacular. It's disappointing because between Cotchery, Holmes, and Edwards, Sanchez has three of the best WRs in football. But since Sanchez isn't good enough, they will tend to eat into each other's numbers too much to be reliable options. Still, Santonio had his breakout game topping 100+ yards for the first time this season. His long was 52 yards, so don't expect this type of production often - but he is THE deep threat. Don't be deceived by Braylon's productive day - 74 of his 78 yards were collected on one pass. Santonio is the only WR you should be starting.

For those of you who got aggressive and thought Kevin Smith could be a sneaky play this week, shame on you. The Jets are too good to try out a shaky emerging RB option. He did get 5 carries - but he didn't do anything with them. Best collected 48 yards - and had a TD called back on a penalty. He looked blue collar as he picked up 40+ yards on both sides of his game. It's those receiving yards that are going to keep him in the top 15 RBs - he has the most of any running back with 356 on the season. If he's scoring 8+ points against the Jets, there aren't many teams you shouldn't trust him against. Stafford looked solid - but look for injury updates this week before starting him again. You should own Nate Burleson if he's still out there. Megatron had one catch (go Revis...) When the Lions face good defenses, look for Burleson to thrive (7 catches against Wash and 6 against the Giants).

Cardinals (24) v. Vikings (27)
In another "squeaker", the Vikings saved face by stealing this one back from the Cards with a FG in OT. Favre was mediocre at the onset but then started hurling. Playing from behind, Favre finished with the most passing yards (446) and the most completions (36) on the day. He's still startable - but these numbers won't come often. His two interceptions held him back from being the top option on the week - but expect this type of hindrance a lot from here out. AP was superman with two touchdowns - one rushing and one receiving. He turned in his most receiving yards of the season. When the Vikings are losing, AP is a great passing option. This is likely due to Favre's lack of sophisticated understanding of the weapons at his disposal. Expect him to dump off more in games where Minnesota plays from behind. Percy Harvin turned in another game crossing the century mark. I think it's time to take a chance on Berrian - no Moss, no Rice, and a firing Favre spells more outings like yesterday's nine catch performance. If you have room, you could do worse.

D.A. didn't do anything spectacular - but he was interception-less, which is always a positive sign moving forward. Still, don't waste any roster space on him. There should be better bye week options. LaRod Stephens-Howling seemed like he might be pick-up-able last week, but this week he did nothing with his 4 carries. Hightower got the bulk of the carries - and he didn't do much with them. But this should be expected against a tough Minny D. Nice to see Larry Fitzgerald rack up 100+ yards for the first time this season. His schedule softens up from here out - he still has Seattle, SF, STL, and Carolina. Expect a nice rebound.

Saints (34) v. Panthers (3)
Brees turned in another sub-Brees performance tossing two TDs, 1 int, and a respectable 253 yards. These are fine numbers - unless you dropped your first round pick on him. You fairly expected more against one of the worst teams in football. Lance Moore is owned in 66% of Yahoo leagues - and you should grab him before he's gone. He's turning out competitive numbers and you could do worse in your flex - particularly against Seattle, Dallas, Cincy, and St. Louis (his next 4 opponents). Colston still led the team in catches and targets - as he is the undisputed #1. The RB picture in New Orleans is too inconsistent. The points were spread three directions - and, as a result, in what should have been a big game for SOMEONE, nobody turned in a big game. Still, as Betts and Ivory are likely gone, taking a chance on Julius Jones probably makes sense if you're hurting in your backfield.

The Panthers are awful. Some people started Jon Stewart yesterday hoping he'd thrive in DeAngelo's absence. But he got hurt and never really got anything going. Ordinarily, when an RB goes down, you run and grab his backup. That man would be Mike Goodson - but the Panthers suck too bad to rush to grab him. With his success depending on DeAngelo, Stewart, AND Sutton out, he's too speculative to bank on. Poor Steve Smith - one catch with 9 yards. He's so talented but he can't thrive in this broken down team. I will still start him and pray for some emerging chemistry. But I think there are sexier week-to-week plays now than ol' 89.

Dolphins (10) v. Ravens (26)
The Ravens are one of the best teams in football and they dismantled the ordinarily competitive Dolphins yesterday in due course. Flacco had his 3rd straight game with 250+ yards, 2+ Tds, and NO interceptions. This is great news for Flacco owners. He's definitely gelling with his weapons. The WRs were all over the place - Mason, Housh, and Boldin all finished between 20 and 45 yards. Boldin is still the one to own. Housh is not startable and won't be this season. He does just enough to knock the value of his surrounding options. The leading receiver on the day was, you guessed it, Ray Rice. Rice proved what he did best by performing in the running game and the receiving side of the Ravens' offense. He remains a top 6 back for the rest of the season. His touchdown total hinders his value, but you can't keep him out of the end-zone for long. You can blame some of that on McGahee and his 4 TDs - but remember last year he had 12 and Rice still finished the season with 7 touchdowns. McGahee is dong no more cannibalizing than he did last season. Expect more from Rice.

Henne blew it big time yesterday tossing three interceptions without a TD. There are circumstances where you could conceivably be starting him - but against a defense like the Ravens, you should have known better. Ronnie Brown was effective against a staunch Baltimore D picking up 59 yards on the ground and 40 in the air. Still, the Fins only ran the ball 11 times. Still, you should be reassured that Brown is getting 85%+ of the carries. These are both RB3s at best. You need one of these guys to get injured (which one probably will) for either to have any real value. The best performing receiving option ended up being Hartline - he had his best performance this weekend with 85 yards. He's worth a look in deep leagues but with Henne under center you can't really expect much.

Chargers (29) v. Texans (23)
I don't understand how Phillip Rivers is so efficient when everytime he throws the ball it looks like he's shotputting the football. Still, Rivers turned in another great performance racking up 4 TDs with virtually none of his weapons. As much as I find him annoying, he's an elite option. He's in the same class as Peyton and Brady now. Ryan Mathews looked sharp but got hurt. Enter Mr. Tolbert once again. Both were moving the ball and moving the ball efficiently. Both should be owned. With Mathews' continuing problems staying healthy, there is a chance Tolbert ends up being THE guy. Keep him stashed. With none of Rivers' receiving options in play, Seyi Ajirotutu pulled in two TDs and 111 yards. While these numbers are indisputable - and no matter what I say, you or someone in your league probably already has picked him up, keep in mind he did all this damage on 4 catches. Patrick Crayton is still a more intriguing pickup in my eyes. He has the pedigree and put together his 4th consecutive game with respectable numbers. The TDs haven't come yet, but he has averaged 78.75 yards in his last four games. Grab him. Randy McMichael hauled in 2 TDs - but I wouldn't be starting him or picking him up unless Gates' injury proves more serious.

There isn't a whole lot to say on the Texans' side of the game. Matt Schaub turned in another mediocre performance. He has thrown for 300+ yards two times all season and yesterday was his second game with zero TDs. While we've preached patience with Schaub, he just isn't as dominant as he once was. The real victim here is Andre Johnson - aka, the most talented WR in the NFL. He had his second worst game of the season with 4 catches for 41 yards. The leading receiver for the Texans? Arian Foster. He is the #1 or #2 RB in most formats right now. And yesterday's mammoth numbers did nothing to dispute that status. Joel Dreessen was the team's leading receiver in terms of catches yesterday - but besides a breakout game against Oakland, he has been unstartable. Don't pick him up yet. If James Casey or Dreessen fully undertakes Owen Daniels' role in the Houston offense, then he is definitely worth a pick-up. Casey only had 48 yards yesterday - but the Texans lean on their TE.

Giants (41) v. Seahawks (7)
The Giants are getting it done - and blew out the Seahawks yesterday as the pundits predicted. Eli turned in a fantastic game with 290 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions. He has 3+ tds in half of his games. Besides his dud against the Bears (when he didn't really need to come out firing), Eli has been one of the most reliable QBs in football. Expect more from him and the 6-2 Giants during the 2nd half of the year. Ahmad Bradshaw dominated with 2 scores and 57 yards. But because the game got out of hand quickly, the carries started getting spread. You may have started Brandon Jacobs hoping that he would be the beneficiary of the garbage time carries. 78 yards is nothing to sneeze at - but Danny Ware got 13 carries for 66 yards. Don't go rushing to pick him up; think about how many things had to happen for him to put up these numbers. It's still Bradshaw's show with Jacobs right behind him. Meanwhile, Hakeem Nicks had a huge game with 128 yards and a score. He remains a WR1. Steve Smith and Mario Manningham are both good options against mid-tier opponents.

Chiefs (20) v. Raiders (23)
In another game decided by a FG in OT, the Raiders pulled off their most meaningful victory in 8 years. You wouldn't believe it from the game - but these two teams actually led the NFL in rushing yards coming into Sunday's matchup. Matt Cassel threw two TDs but didn't collect much yardage. This is basically the best you can grow to expect from him. Besides his demolition of the pathetic 49ers, his numbers remain pedestrian. The running backs cannibalized each other's opportunities to have huge games. As the trend has indicated, Thomas Jones carried the ball almost twice as many times as Jamaal Charles. Charles is still the better back to own because of his ability to explode. But expect TJ to continue to get more carries. Still, it's Charles that will be getting receptions - so he's the bigger threat for fantasy greatness. Meanwhile, Dwayne Bowe continued his resurrection by collecting his fourth straight game with a TD. Most encouraging for Bowe owners is the the whopping 12 targets. Bowe is back and if you can still get him at a discount you should do it. Tony Moeaki should be picked up in most leagues. He had his best game of the season with 6 catches and 63 yards. He's had 40+ yards in 6 of 8 games this season, which at the TE slot is studly.

With Miller out, McFadden is the only fantasy starter on the Raiders. He cleared the century mark in all-purpose yards but failed to raech paydirt. Remember: of his 6 TDs, 4 came in one week. Don't overvalue him. He's still thriving - but he may be a sell-high candidate. Many experts were pushing Marcel Reece as a deep flyer. He was virtually nonexistent yesterday. I'm not holding my breath. Jacoby Ford broke out yesterday with 148 yards. He's worth a look in VERY deep leagues - just because any time someone puts those numbers up with 9 targets, you can't really write their performance off. Still, I think you can wait one more week to see if there is any longevity to his chemistry with Jason Campbell. Query whether he benefited from Zach Miller's absence.

Colts (24) v. Eagles (26)
This may have been the battle of the MVP candidates as Michael Vick squared off against Peyton Manning. Vick slid right back into the dynamic Philly offense and thrived immediately. He threw one TD and ran another - but what was most impressive was his wheels. He ran for 74 yards yesterday proving that he is still the threat he once was. Holding onto him was worth it. At 5-3, the Eagles are going to compete and Vick will be a legit MVP candidate if he stays healthy. When Vick is at his best, the other Philly options excel. LeSean McCoy had his second best game on the ground yesterday racking up 95 yards on 16 carries. Still, McCoy has only scored in three games this season. He does better with Vick under center than Kolb - so hope that Vick stays healthy. One guy who does better with Vick out is Brent Celek who was held without a catch yesterday. He did have a TD called back due to penalty - but this is not an outing that is encouraging for a top TE. DeSean Jackson returned at full force picking up 109 yards and a score. With the Eagles receiving options back at full-health, you can expect Maclin and Avant to turn in performances like yesterday. Both could fluke it up with a big performance here or there - but so long as DeSean Jackson is healthy, you should not be banking on the other options.

Meanwhile, Peyton had an un-Peyton like performance scoring once and throwing two interceptions. He finished with 294 yards in what was his second worst performance of the year. Still, you're not trading him for anybody that isn't a top 5 RB and you're starting him without question from here out. He's still a beast. Bad news came early when Austin Collie was banged up hard. He was a legit WR1/WR2. It was Jacob Tamme who blew up yesterday catching 11 balls for 108 yards. He may not be Dallas Clark, but he needs to be owned in every league. Reggie Wayne also caught 11 balls for his second highest number of catches on the season. Oddly, Garcon did not pick up Collie's scraps - grabbing two catches for 15 yards. Expect this to even out a bit - Garcon should be upgraded with Collie out. Tamme should be picked up regardless.

Cowboys (7) v. Packers (45)
If there was any doubt that the Cowboys were done, Sunday night was the final straw. The Romo-less Cowboys scored a measley 7 points - albeit against a tough D. I keep thinking Jon Kitna is going to even out and be a cheap source of double digit fantasy points, but I'm yet to see much support for this prediction. He has 6 interceptions through three games. But it's Dez Bryant who is loving having Kitna under center. He has gone 4/54, 7/84, and 9/86 with four TDs since Kitna has taken the helm. Keep him in lineups. Witten turned in two consecutive solid outputs before Sunday night - but remember he was facing the Pack. He is fine and will continue to be an elite TE with Kitna QB'ing. Meanwhile, Roy Williams has 2 catches during his last three games. He is not trustworthy going forward. Also suffering was the Dallas running game: neither RB topped 16 yards. I'm willing to give a partial pass since they were facing GB - things don't get much easier against the Giants next week, but I think Felix Jones could rebound starting with a juicy matchup against Detroit during Week 11.

Rodgers, meanwhile, turned in his best game of the season throwing three scores without an interception. He's still an elite QB even though he has performed below expectations this season. Owners should be salivating at his Week 14 matchup against the Lions. Despite his goose eggs this season, James Jones needs to be owned. 123 yards on 8 catches is NO joke. Meanwhile, Greg Jennings is putting together a nice little run topping 70+ yards over the last four games and scoring in three. I'd call him a WR1 again. Jordy Nelson keeps racking up solid WR4 numbers - but you shouldn't own him unless Jennings or Jones go down. The disappointing thing is that Kuhn and Jackson split carries evenly sabotaging both of their chances of being fantasy studs. Jackson, incidentally scored twice, and you're probably starting him going forward anyway - but it'd be nice to see him getting more than 13 carries in a blow out like this. Own them both, but give a large edge to B-Jax because of his role in the passing game.

7 comments:

MERLIN said...

TRADE QUESTION?!
Someone offered me miles austin n welker for ray rice. in ppr league.
i have randy moss and percey, knox, sidney rice
rb-steve jackson, felix jones p thomas,lynch

Anonymous said...

Brett, I'm not so sure about Brady as an 'elite' QB1. They lack explosiveness in their offense this year, and I would start guys like Orton, Hill/Stafford, or even Eli Manning over him, although Brady is slightly more trustworthy in bad match-ups. Hernandez finally got red-zone snaps (Yay!), but dropped 3 passes (a trend, boo). It's a situation to monitor. I have him and would sell high, but who would part with an upgrade? Gates? No. Davis? No. Tamme? I'll probably ask that owner I guess.

I'm considering benching Roddy White on the short week with a bruised knee (for Mike Wallace).

Adrian Peterson is amazing. I did my research and passed on him to draft Ray Rice, figuring that the Baltimore offense would be more explosive, he would get more goal line carries, the vikings o-line would stink this year, Farve would get banged up, there would be a coaching fiasco, and they would have a step back on defense. I was DEAD RIGHT on **ALL** of those predictions and AP is still dominating Rice's numbers. Simply jaw-dropping. I don't know what else to say.

Brett, I see you commented on Rivers' throwing motion. As the resident die-hard Charger fan (who you should listen to after the Seyi recommendation), take into account what the defenders are starting to say: He is like a great pitcher in baseball in that he has a very deceptive motion. When he's throwing, they have a hard time reacting to it because the shorter and longer passes look the same. And how is he annoying? Everyone trash talks on the field. And what's with the love for Crayton? You have a bye, then Naanee definitely back week 11, Gates probably, and then Floyd and Jackson definitely by week 12. Where does that leave Crayton? Waiver fodder. Besides, he's never been a deep threat or red zone monster...

I don't like James Jones at all. He drops way too many passes, he fumbles too much (including this week), and he lost the starting gig to Jordy Nelson. The blueprint against the Cowboys is to go three receiver sets and attack their flaws in coverage. They did that (and threw to Jones), but the game plans against future opponents is less clear...

Anonymous said...

Hrmmm...interesting. I keep benching McGahee and he keeps scoring TDs! Could he be a flex play going forward?

Not Patrick Hammon said...

god that article was well-written...

a bit tardy, but quality over timeliness...

Vincent said...

I agree, Rivers is a punk but he's good...I'm starting crayton knowing that he's only startable for this 4-5 week window, 70 yards a game isn't winning my match ups but it's keeping me competitive

What do you recommend doing with schaub down the stretch, I have him in two leagues and am playoff bound but I don't know if I want to ride him through the playoffs?

Trevor said...

Chunky article. It's rare so much info can stay interesting through the whole read. I'm diggin this site.

Please pick 2 if you read this... Roddy White, Miles Austin, Dwayne Bowe. Obviously I'm leaning towards White being the #1 if he's playing, but Bowe is making a case to be ahead of Miles lately.

Brett said...

@Anonymous: McGahee is only a flex option in deep leagues.

@Vincent: Yeah, it's hard to say what to do with Schaub. He's been incredibly inconsistent, but still has the potential to put up big games. I have no problem with benching him for certain guys depending on matchups. But you can't drop him, and probably shouldn't trade him unless you can get solid value.

@Trevor: I'd go with White and Austin. Bowe may come crashing back down to Earth after a date with Champ Bailey. (though, Austin's matchup against Giants isn't great either.)

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