Game Previews: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid - Week 11

With every week, we get closer and closer to the fantasy football playoffs, so if you’re a Cowboys or Vikings fan, have no fear - at least you will be able to partake in some form of playoffs this year. While I can’t necessarily say the same for fantasy football leagues, there has been a great deal of parity in the NFL this season. As a result, many teams remain extremely active in the hunt for post-season berth. This increased competition is not only good for the fans it is also great for fantasy footballers because with almost every team in contention (Sorry Panthers, Bills, and Lions), every player will be playing their hardest. Week 11 also marks the end of the team byes so you will no longer be able to coast through by going against the guy who forgot his Yahoo password and hasn’t adjusted his roster since week 1. As the final push to the playoffs is ever-approaching, let’s take a look at some of the matchups to exploit and avoid in Week 11.

Bears at Dolphins (Tonight!)
Despite the victory over the Titans last weekend, the Dolphins are in a heap of trouble after losing two of their quarterbacks. With Thigpen likely to get the start this weekend and possibly for the rest of the season with Henne’s knee injury, all the Dolphins receivers take a hit. Brandon Marshall has posted pedestrian numbers as of late and will likely continue to struggle with a new QB at the helm. However, new QB’s typically spell success for tightends as safety valve options. As we said earlier this week, Anthony Fasano is worth a look at tightend especially considering how many injuries there have been to elite tightends this season. Brian Hartline has posted back to back solid outings but remains a speculative option until we can further grasp how well Thigpen will gel with this offensive unit. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are both poised to see more action out of the wildcat tonight, but with Patrick Cobbs becoming a factor on passing downs on top of the already 50-50 split, neither Brown nor Williams are especially attractive options in this game.

Bills at Bengals
Congratulations Bills fans on a victory well-deserved. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be rewarded with a matchup against his former team that appears to be falling apart at the seams. Fitzpatrick injured his hand last weekend against the Lions and the Bills discovered that they have a running game. Fitz II says his hand is nothing to worry about, but it does help explain why there were so few passing attempts last weekend. Monitor the hand situation, but he could be a viable option this weekend as he has proven he can air it out. Steve Johnson was held relatively quiet against Detroit but he was the most targeted member of the aerial attack and he and Lee Evans should both be started as WR2’s in this matchup. Evans has been a boom or bust fantasy player in recent years so don’t be surprised if he has a quiet day but he is more than capable of an explosive performance. With C.J. Spiller out this weekend, Fred Jackson is finally the last man standing in the Buffalo backfield, meaning he is a solid start against the Bengals this weekend.

T.O. has still got it. To spout off another Jerry McGuire scene, T.O. and Palmer have been in the locker room saying to each other “Help me, help you!” While Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley have eaten up targets in comeback attempts, T.O. has been a consistent option every week and is on track for a Pro Bowl season. Cedric Benson has been proving ineffective recently and to make matters worse, he was dinged up last weekend and was limited in the second half. Benson missed practice yesterday and is listed as questionable for this weekend but if he is available to play he has a great matchup against the NFL’s 32nd run defense.

Lions at Cowboys
Shaun Hill did not look good last weekend but threw for over 300 yards. Going against Dallas, Hill will likely have to throw the ball just as often meaning he is a high end QB2 and possible QB1. Calvin Johnson missed practice yesterday but should start this weekend opposite Nate Burleson who has become a key part of the Lions’ offense. Burleson makes for a decent WR3 or flex play considering the Lions will likely be throwing a lot in this matchup. Jahvid Best is suffering from turf toe and will be playing at less than 100%, but with Kevin Smith out due to thumb surgery, Best will have to be the workhorse back. Brandon Pettigrew has been quietly putting together a solid season and received eight targets last weekend including a target on the Lions’ 2-point conversion attempt.

The Cowboys are back but it might be too little too late. Jon Kitna has a great matchup and he has great weapons, I’m starting him this weekend with confidence and you should too. Kitna has two 300 yard games in his 3 outings and he has shown great ability in the vertical attack. Dez Bryant has benefited the most from Kitna and will likely continue to thrive. Miles Austin has seen his targets decrease but has also been posting solid numbers and is a must start as is Dez Bryant. Roy Williams is now an afterthought in Dallas especially as the Cowboys are trending in a more youthful direction. Felix Jones got the start last weekend and made a couple of explosive plays that kept Marion the Barbarian and Tashard Choice sidelined until the Cowboys were just trying to run out the clock. Despite the inconsistency, Felix Jones makes for a solid start against the Lions this weekend whereas Barber and Choice should be on fantasy benches.


Redskins at Titans
Game Notes: Keiland Williams took all but one carry for the Redskins last weekend and racked up big yardage in garbage time. If Ryan Torrain and Clinton Portis (both missed practice yesterday) are out this weekend Williams will get the start. It isn’t a great matchup against the Titans but Williams looked good in the passing game so he has solid versatility and could post solid flex options. Check back to see if Williams will get the start, but our super sleeper may finally have woken up. Randy Moss was mediocre in his baby blue debut but he did open up the ground game for Chris Johnson. Moss still has the easiest schedule for any wide receiver going forward so keep him on your roster but I don’t love him.

Cardinals at Chiefs
Game Notes: Beanie Wells returned to practice yesterday but will not become serviceable again until he can prove he is part of the Cardinals’ offense. For now, avoid the Arizona ground game until better clarity is achieved. Matt Cassel exploded last weekend but keep in mind the Broncos jumped out to a 35-0 lead. Don’t expect that to happen again this weekend. Cassel is still a decent option as the Chiefs have shown an affinity for giving the ball to Dwayne Bowe in the endzone but the Chiefs will likely revert back to a power running game. Jones barely touched the ball last weekend, but again that was due in large part because Charles is the receiving back and the Chiefs were playing from behind all day. Both Jones and Charles make for solid starts this weekend with the edge going to Charles (especially in PPR leagues).


Packers at Vikings
Following the bye, the Packers have worked out some of the injury problems but not all. Aaron Rodgers has a solid matchup against a struggling Vikings defense that is falling apart both on and off the field. Greg Jennings is an every week start and has developed great second half chemistry with Rodgers. Donald Driver will likely miss this NFC North showdown, meaning that James Jones will get the start opposite Jennings. Jones has shown flashes of excellence but has struggled with ball control, Jones is a decent flex option as the Packers remain a pass first team. Brandon Jackson has been becoming an increasingly more central piece of the Packers’ offense this season and will likely see more action this weekend. Jackson is a solid receiving back and the Williams Wall ain’t what it used to be. Jackson is a solid option this weekend especially now that Rodgers has been looking his way near the goal line.

The heat under Brett Favre and Brad Childress is hotter than ever, but the Vikings have been cooling down. Favre is not what he used to be and his receivers are struggling as a result. Berrian is likely out this weekend, and Percy Harvin missed practice yesterday. Harvin will likely start this weekend and should be in fantasy lineups but the Vikings are heading in the wrong direction. Adrian Peterson saw a lot of his carries go to Toby Gerhart to try and mix things up for the Vikings last weekend but not even a change of pace at runningback could save the Vikings. AP remains a must start despite the tough matchup but look for the Packers to stack the box.


Texans at Jets
Game Notes: Matt Schaub is banged up and has a tough matchup against the Jets. Andre Johnson will also be at less than 100% and vacationing at Revis Island so Schaub is not the most attractive option. Owen Daniels is also likely ruled out for this weekend. Shonn Greene has been getting more involved in the Jets’ ground attack and this trend will likely continue as the Jets want to keep both backs fresh. Greene is a solid option going forward and will likely move from a solid flex option to a solid RB2 in later weeks.


Raiders at Steelers
Game Notes: This will be one of the biggest games of the year for both of these teams. The Raiders will likely have Zach Miller back and Miller should be back in fantasy rosters as he has been an elite tightend when healthy this season. Darren McFadden will get the start but the Raiders will have to find different ways to get him the ball because the Steelers are not generous with yards on the ground. Following his concussion last weekend, Hines Ward will be healthy and get the start but he has had a disappointing season and is no more than a WR3 at best. Mike Wallace is the receiver to own in Pittsburgh and he has been posting excellent numbers since Big Ben’s return. Look for Wallace to burn the Oakland secondary as the safety position has been a huge liability for the Raiders. Mendenhall should also be back to form in what figures to be a tighter matchup this weekend (or one in which the Steelers will be running out the clock)

Buccaneers at 49ers
Game Notes: The Cinderella story continues as the Bucs have a favorable matchup against the struggling 49ers. Mike Williams has been one of our darlings this season and is an every week starter. LeGarrette Blount looked stellar last weekend with the offensive line in tact and has a decent matchup. Troy Smith has put together back to back solid outings in which he earned 2 of the 49ers 3 victories. Frank Gore, and Vernon Davis are must starts and Michael Crabtree is a solid WR2.

Colts at Patriots
Game Notes: Jacob Tamme was Peyton’s favorite target last weekend but Peyton seems to have a new best friend every weekend. With no reliable ground attack, the Colts will air it out and provide startable fantasy performances to Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Jacob Tamme. Tom Brady has also had a new man crush each weekend with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Aaron Hernandez and Gronkowski all having their own breakout games. While Hernandez remains the most consistent target, the real beneficiary of all these receiving options is Tom Brady. Brady is a must start in this classic shootout between two of the best quarterbacks of this century.

-By Cory Hammon