Game Previews: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid - Week 10

With my darling Packers and Raiders on bye this weekend, I have nothing to pay attention to except fantasy football, which is A okay in my book. There is no time left in the fantasy football season to look at your losing record and pray for things to turn around and push you over the edge into the playoffs. As we’ve said week in and week out, you have to play the matchups and go with who is actually producing as opposed to who was supposed to produce when you first drafted your team. Offenses and defenses have also proved whether or not they work at this point in the season meaning that we must reevaluate how to account for matchups. Also as a friendly reminder, remember that the Ravens will be playing the Falcons TONIGHT! You do not want to be the guy or gal who goes to set their roster Saturday night and finds that Roddy White and Ray Rice racked up monster games on your bench (Also make sure to take out McGahee if you used him to fill in for Chris Johnson or Frank Gore last weekend!). So without further ado, here are our matchups to exploit and avoid in this crucial week 10!


Ravens at Falcons
Starting with what is shaping up to be the matchup of the weekend…or week? These 6-2 power houses are ready to take flight, whether Ray Lewis likes it or not, on Thursday night, so be sure to Tivo The Office because this will be a matchup you don’t want to miss. Joe Flacco is coming off a solid outing last weekend against the stout Miami defense and will have a much easier time against a struggling Atlanta secondary. With Ray Rice providing a viable receiving threat, look for more openings in coverage for Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason. Boldin is a must start as he continues to post solid numbers and will likely be a big factor in what figures to be a high scoring affair. Mason, on the other hand, has evidently edged out Housh as the number 2 receiver in Baltimore but he does not provide a great deal of upside. Mason is a possession receiver who succeeded when there was no other option in the Baltimore passing game, but with Q around, Mason makes for an undesirable fantasy start. 50 to 75 yards and a low chance of a score is the best you can hope for out of Mason. On the ground, the Ravens’ three-headed monster continues to cannibalize itself. While McClain has reverted back to a much more traditional fullback role and is preoccupied spitting some fresh new beats, McGahee and Rice remain headaches for owners. As we have said, Rice will receive the bulk of the carries and those carries are bound to lead to the endzone, but the Ravens are not giving all the goal line looks to Rice. McGahee remains a touchdown vulture who will accrue below par yardage totals but has high upside in touchdown heavy leagues. Rice, on the other hand, will see the bulk of the work between the 20’s and is a great play in PPR leagues as Flacco has been showing great chemistry with his versatile RB. Todd Heap continues to bounce back and forth between stud and dud territory but given the other options out there, he remains nothing more than a TE2.

The Falcons have performed extremely well at home but they will have a tough matchup against a very formidable Ravens’ defense. Matty Ice had a solid outing against the Bucs last weekend even after losing Roddy White with a knee injury. Because the Ravens can put points on the board, so too must the Falcons meaning that even in this tough matchup, Ryan is a decent start but we do not put him in the top 10. Roddy White is expected to play but will be less than 100% given the short week, make sure White is active before game time, if White is out significantly downgrade Matt Ryan. Michael Jenkins will likely play a similar role as Derrick Mason in this matchup as someone who can put together a couple of catches but who lacks the explosiveness to really be considered for fantasy purposes. Tony Gonzalez put together a great game last weekend but will now be going against a defense that has completely shutdown tightends this season. If you have an option with a more favorable matchup than Gonzo, this might be the time to plug him in to your roster. Michael “Burner” Turner has shown flashes of brilliance in his past two performances racking up over 100 yards and 2 scores in both games, but the Ravens are a whole lot tougher to run on than the Bucs. Snelling also continues to eat into Turner’s touches with over 8 touches per game, but Turner continues to get the goal line carries which is most important. Snelling comes in on 3rd downs because of his pass catching abilities, but barring an injury to Turner, Snelling should not be started.

Jets at Browns
Game Notes: Don’t get too cutesy with the Cleveland offense. They have put together some solid numbers but Peyton Hillis is the only viable option in Cleveland (and he is the real deal even in this tough matchup).

Bengals at Colts
Game Notes: Jacob Tamme is the real deal and will continue to play a major part in this offense going forward. Tamme does not have the same track record as Dallas Clark but should be owned and started. Austin Collie will be out this weekend boosting the value of Pierre Garcon who will see the majority of snaps as the number 2 wide receiver.

Titans at Dolphins
Game Notes: Mossical Chairs continues with Moss now suiting up for the Titans. It is unclear what kind of chemistry Young and Moss will have so this will definitely be a shot to Moss owners, especially in this tough matchup against the Fins. But remember, the Titans are in the AFC South which means that Moss will have 4 more games against the Texans, Jaguars and Colts which means he should have four more big outings before season’s end. Don’t panic if Moss struggles in this matchup, he will have more to come.

Panthers at Buccaneers
Say what you will about the Bills’ defeated record, the Panthers are the worst team in the NFL. As if things could not get any worse for the Panthers, they have now lost all of their runningbacks and their quarterback to injuries. Much like our earlier post this season about the Colts to start everyone, when it comes to the Panthers: BENCH EVRYONE! Jimmy Clausen will be taking over at quarterback for the injured Matt Moore but will be on a very short leash and could be pulled in favor of rookie Tony Pike. Brandon LaFell and David Gettis should not even be on fantasy benches, their brief moments of success have been greatly sandwiched by mediocrity and poor outings. And while I knew the day would once come when I had to recommend benching Steve Smith, I expected to be saying it while driving around in my hover car. Smith is a beast and had some promising performances with Matt Moore but he is yet to gain over 100 yards in a game this season and will likely not do it with Clausen or Pike passing the ball. If you have no other options, Smith can be started as a WR3, but hope for a speedy recovery to Matt Moore. Mike Goodson will be getting the start at tailback for the Panthers with injuries to DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Tyrell Sutton. As Goodson is available in 87% of leagues, he might not be the worst pick up to monitor. This weekend he would have a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay and starting runningbacks are tough to come by these days, temper your expectations but Goodson could be a serviceable flex or RB3 this weekend.

Our Cinderella story with Tampa Bay fell just short last weekend when the offensive line turned back into a Pumpkin before the Bucs could close out their comeback. This weekend, however, Josh Freeman will have a much more favorable matchup against the Panthers as he continues to improve in each outing. Though he has not posted gaudy numbers, Freeman is a reliable option and has seen his chemistry with Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn continue to improve (it also doesn’t hurt that he is not afraid to use his legs to rush for first downs when the play falls apart). Williams is now turning into an every week starter at WR2 and has a great matchup against the Panthers’ secondary. Benn has the favorable matchup but has been too inconsistent and had a pair of ugly drops last weekend against the Falcons. For the time being Benn is worth keeping an eye on but not worth starting. Kellen Winslow seems to be the only one not benefiting from the offensive resurgence in Tampa as he has failed to make big plays and is yet to find the endzone. Winslow is falling dramatically from the elite tightend conversation. As expected, Caddy got the start last weekend, but it was Blount that did the most damage, especially in the second half. That being said, Blount failed to pound it in on two tries from the goal line and lacks the pass blocking ability of Williams (Our acknowledgements to DeadFrog). Blount remains the back to own and is definitely startable this weekend but he is a rookie and as such will be shaky and inconsistent at the professional level.

Texans at Jaguars
This game reminds me of those “Sure Catch Trout” stations near lakes where all you have to do is cast your line into a pool filled to the brim with trout and you’ll get a catch. Two of the NFL’s worst secondaries will be facing off against each other in this AFC South battle, and it looks to be a great opportunity for fantasy owners of anyone on these offenses. Matt Schaub has continued to struggle this season and his receivers have not been making things easier for him with costly drops and tipped balls. However, Schaub had a touchdown pass called back thanks to the rule that the catch must be completed to the ground (later revealed that it WAS in fact a touchdown) and in this matchup against the Jags, Schaub should have another one of his rebound performances. Don’t let his rib injury concern you, Schaub took his normal reps with the team yesterday and will get the start Sunday. Johnson missed practice yesterday but will get the start and should have a solid performance against the Jags’ porous secondary. This would also be the weekend to start Jacoby Jones if you hung on to him this long as a WR3. Jones caught 4 of his 5 targets last weekend and had a touchdown pass slip through his hands, Walter on the other hand was not targeted at all. Owen Daniels will likely miss this matchup meaning that Joel Dreessen will likely get the start. Though Dreessen is unproven, he looked to be a reliable option for Schaub last weekend and could be more involved this weekend as a dumpoff option. Start Arian Foster, there should be no questions about it. Foster runs like a mad man, has proven difficult to tackle and has quite the nose for the endzone.

Who is the only easier team to throw on than the Jags? You guessed it! The Texans! Garrard looked like an all-star against the Cowboys before the bye and will have another great matchup to continue his success. We’re not saying that Garrard is a must-start but he makes for a very viable option for any Rivers, Brees or Rodgers owners in need of a QB this weekend. Mike Sims-Walker has strung together back to back solid performances and should tack on yet another against the Texans this weekend. Mike Thomas has been an effective possession receiver but Garrard’s favorite redzone targets are MSW and Lewis so we’re avoiding Mike Thomas unless you’re in desperate need of a WR. Marcedes Lewis also stands to benefit from this matchup as he has proven to be a reliable target especially when the Jags get to the goal. Maurice Jones-Drew should also see an enhanced role in this game and should be used more in the passing game if the Jags want to have a chance at winning this game.

Chiefs at Broncos
Game Notes: The Broncos have surrendered huge running performances in their past three weeks and now they face the number 2 rushing offense in the league. Even if Jones and Charles split the carries 50-50, both will get enough of an opportunity to produce solid fantasy numbers against this pitiful rush defense. The Broncos will have to counter KC’s strong ground attack with an aerial attack. Eric Berry has been very impressive for the Chiefs, but with how many talented receivers Denver has, the Broncos will move the ball well through the air. Brandon Lloyd should continue his excellent season in this matchup and is a must-start.

Cowboys at Giants
Game Notes: If there is anyone in Dallas who is happy with all the changes being made it is Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Kitna has hit his stride with Bryant and Witten making Roy Williams a mere afterthought. The Cowboys are transitioning towards a more youthful team in order to prepare for next year meaning that Dez should only become a bigger factor as the season goes on. Bryant should now be started in all fantasy rosters as a WR2. Last time these teams met, the Giants picked apart the Dallas secondary, look for them to do it again and expect solid games out of Nicks and Steve Smith.

Patriots at Steelers
After being embarrassed by the Browns, the New Orleans Saints went on to defeat the Steelers on Halloween night. Perhaps the Patriots will be able to pull off the same feat after their disappointing loss at the hands of Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis. Brady is extremely talented and is a smart football player, but he has not been a dominant fantasy factor as the Patriots have significantly altered their gameplan. Especially in this tough matchup, Brady may not be the safest bet for fantasy success. Wes Welker has continued to struggle without Randy Moss and now he is reporting that he does not feel comfortable with his surgically repaired knee. Temper expectations of Welker as a WR2 or WR3 in this tough matchup. While Deion Branch claims to be back to 100%, he has failed to do much these past two weeks and is clearly not the solution to the woes Randy’s absence has brought to this offense. Brandon Tate is also too inconsistent to be considered for fantasy purposes. The receiver to own in New England is Aaron Hernandez who continues to post solid numbers and found the endzone twice last weekend. However, with Troy Polamalu roaming over the middle of the field, Hernandez could have a long night. Fred Taylor also may return this weekend which would spell the end of BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ breakout but be sure to check the health report before plugging either in. Given the tough matchup, however, this might not be a bad week to avoid both backs. Danny Woodhead will likely continue to see more snaps this weekend because of the versatility that he provides and because the Steelers will not be able to stack the box against him because of the receiving threat he poses. If we had to start one of these three this weekend it would probably have to be Woodhead.

The Steelers almost saw their dominant performance against the Bengals fall apart last weekend as Carson Palmer put together an impressive fourth quarter comeback that fell just short. Don’t expect Big Ben and the Steelers to underestimate this opponent. Big Ben was able to go into cruise control so his numbers against the Bengals look pedestrian, but against a much more potent Pats’ offense, Ben will have to come out throwing. Mike Wallace only has 22 catches this season but he is averaging over 23 yards per reception and was targeted 7 times last weekend. Wallace also has 5 touchdowns through the past 6 games and is a reliable option with Roethlisberger at the helm because of what he can do with his targets. Ward had a touchdown slip through his hands last weekend but also hauled one in from 8 yards out, despite the low yardage total, Ward remains a consistent option with scoring potential. Both Ward and Wallace should be started this weekend. Heath Miller only has 1 touchdown on the season and has only topped 50 yards receiving once, Miller does not make for a quality start this weekend. Rashard Mendenhall continues to produce solid performances and is one of few workhorse backs remaining in the NFL. Mendenhall showed great ability at keeping his legs moving last weekend to compensate for some blocking problems up front. Mendenhall is a solid start this weekend.

Eagles at Redskins
Game Notes: Clinton Portis is back and could become reintegrated into the offense if he plays this weekend. If you hung onto Portis, he could be a decent start soon, but the Eagles have been very tough on the run and Portis would be gradually worked back into the offense. For now, all this means is that Ryan Torain’s value will be slightly downgraded.