Game Previews: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid - Week 9

Well Fantasy Footballers, the halfway point in the fantasy football season has come and gone and the hunt for the playoffs is on. As we have said, it should now be clear who the studs and duds of the season are, there is no longer any point in waiting out for your big sleeper pick to wake up. Call in the coroner…your sleeper is a flatliner. On the brightside, plenty of fantasy studs have emerged who should now be in your starting rosters. Here is a look forward to the matchups of the weekend that can win or lose you your matchup.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Buccaneers are becoming one of this year’s Cinderella stories. Josh Freeman has played mistake-free football and has led the Bucs to back-to-back fourth quarter comebacks. Freeman has also been able to get it done on the ground scrambling for yards when the play breaks down. While it doesn’t seem like much, that extra two or three points a game could help win your matchup. Freeman will also have to pass in this NFC South matchup going up against a very productive Atlanta offense. Mike Williams is the biggest beneficiary of Freeman’s success and is averaging 68 yards per game. Williams is an every week starter as a WR2. Arrelious Benn and Michael Spurlock have also become more involved in the passing attack but neither are consistent enough to be considered relevant in fantasy leagues. While this spells increased production for Freeman, it has resulted in a sharp decrease in Kellen Winslow’s value who was only targeted twice last weekend against the Cardinals. The arrival of LeGarrette Blount has opened up for the passing attack and has subsequently ripped off some big gains. Although Atlanta poses a tougher matchup than Arizona, Blount is clearly eclipsing Cadillac Williams and should be started in standard leagues going forward. Blount does not have the same explosive speed as most NFL runningbacks, but he is a physical bruiser and has great evasiveness to break tackles.

Coming off the bye week, the Falcons will look to gain a game over the Bucs. Matt Ryan has utilized Roddy White to the fullest and could post stellar numbers just based off his production with White. Despite the flashes of brilliance in the Tampa Bay secondary last weekend, Roddy White should have no problem racking up big yardage and is a great scoring threat. Michael Jenkins will get the start opposite Roddy White, but with how many solid wide receivers have emerged this year, Jenkins is nothing more than a low upside WR3. Tony Gonzalez has become a much more integral part of the Atlanta offense and has seen an increase in redzone targets. Tony G is not the same reliable option he was in his KC days, but with all the injuries to TE’s this year, Gonzalez is definitely a must start. Michael Turner had his best game of the season before the bye week and will likely continue his success. Don’t expect 100 yards and 2 scores every week, but Turner should produce like the first round pick you drafted him to be this weekend against a weak Tampa Bay run defense.

San Diego at Houston
The injury woes for the Chargers continue to slow down this high-flying offense, but Philip Rivers appears as though he could be a top quarterback throwing to the cast of Golden Girls. Houston has a pathetic secondary that has failed to slow down anyone meaning Rivers should have a great game regardless of who he throws the ball to. With Floyd and Naanee likely out again this weekend, Patrick Crayton makes for a solid start as the number one receiver in this aerial attack. Another big blow to the fantasy community is the likely loss of this year’s biggest key to success: Antonio Gates. Gates is in danger of missing this weekend and many more to come with a serious tear to his plantar fascia in his right foot. Monitor Gates’ status this weekend because if he can play through the injury he is the clear favorite target in the redzone for the Chargers and would have a very favorable matchup. Coach Turner has tried to increase Ryan Mathews’ workload but Mathews has been relatively ineffective. Tolbert achieved more on less carries last weekend and will likely turn the San Diego ground game into a committee attack. Until things shake out in this backfield, Mathews and Tolbert are low upside flex options who could wind up posting poor numbers. On the other hand, Darren Sproles has racked up yards on the ground and through the air and scored last weekend. Sproles is a speedster who is tough to tackle and makes for a great start especially in PPR leagues. For anyone who still has Nate Kaeding in their starting roster, take him out…then again if you still have Kaeding in your starting roster, your playoff hopes probably ended week one when you started Larry Johnson and Brian Westbrook.

Matt Schaub has struggled this season and is yet to produce consistent numbers but he remains a safe option especially in this matchup. Although the Chargers have been pretty rough against the pass, Schaub has too many weapons for the Chargers to lock down on everyone. Part of Schaub’s struggles were due in part to the excellent pass rush of Dwight Freeney forcing him to unleash some ill-advised throws. Look for a bounce back performance this weekend. Jacoby Jones appears to have completely surpassed Kevin Walter on the depth chart as the number 2 receiver, but both Walter and Jones had some ugly drops last weekend and should not be in fantasy rosters this weekend. Andre Johnson was back to form last weekend but may have aggravated his ankle injury. Although Coach Kubiak says the injury was not serious, Johnson will be playing at less than 100% this Sunday. Start Andre the Giant, but make sure he is active on Sunday before plugging him into your roster. Owen Daniels also has been playing through injuries and has shown it. Daniels is a stellar athlete but has struggled when playing at less than 100% so temper your expectations of Daniels as anything more than a mid-level TE option. Although Derrick Ward was expected to cut into Arian Foster’s carries, Ward only received four touches on Monday night meaning that Foster is the workhorse back going forward. Foster will have a tougher matchup this weekend against the Chargers but because of his explosiveness and his role as the centerpiece of the Texans offense, he remains a must start.

Kansas City at Oakland
I never would have guessed that this matchup would count for anything. Two of last year’s worst teams are now battling it out for the AFC West title. The success of both of these teams has been due in great part to their ground attack so whoever manages to pass the ball effectively this weekend will likely win. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Matt Cassel will be playing without Dexter McCluster as his number 2 receiver. Cassel will have to lean on Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki to produce through the air, but neither have managed to rack up significant yardage. Bowe will likely see a lot of Nnamdi Asomugha, if healthy, but the Raiders secondary has been burnt badly this season. Bowe continues to perform and should remain in starting lineups until he falls off again. Moeaki continues to be a part of this offense but he does not produce enough to earn a spot in starting line ups. Moeaki is not a safe bet for more than 50 yards and has not been targeted in the redzone since Bowe has emerged as a touchdown machine. As we said, the Chiefs are a run first team so look for Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles to continue to produce. Jones has not been as productive as Charles but he continues to see playing time to keep Charles fresh and has posted solid numbers. Both Charles and Jones are must starts against the NFL’s 29th worst rush defense.

The Raiders are number 2 in the NFL in points scored and total offensive yards and are number 1 in rushing yards. Look for the Raiders to continue to try and pound the ball out on the ground in this big matchup against the Chiefs. Despite Jason Campbell’s monster game last weekend, Coach Cable still plans on starting Bruce Gradkowski when he recovers from injury. Cable will make his announcement on Friday, but Campbell will likely get the start as Gradkowski remains limited in practice. If Campbell does get the start, he will be short at receiving options this weekend. Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens are all but ruled out and Zach Miller and Darrius Heyward-Bey are both questionable for this weekend. However, as the Raiders are in must win mode, Miller and DH-B will likely be starting with Jacoby Ford taking over slot receiver duties. The only player in the Oakland passing game worth a look in fantasy this weekend is Zach Miller but be sure to check his status before relying on him as your TE. On the ground, Darren McFadden is the clear featured back in Oakland, while Michael Bush has assumed bruising duties. McFadden and Bush are a poor man’s “Thunder and Lighting” a la CJ2K and White and both should be serviceable starts this weekend especially in PPR leagues as Campbell has relied on his talented backs in the passing game. Marcel Reece is also becoming a significant part of the Oakland offense but is not involved enough to earn a spot on fantasy rosters. Consequently, Reece will be nothing more than an inconvenience to Bush and DMC owners who will see some of their touches head towards the talented fullback.

Dallas at Green Bay
If you’re anything like me, you love watching the Cowboys fail. Jerry Jones is finally admitting that there is a problem with the team and is going to do something to change it…Oh wait, no he said that he will not do anything to change it. The inept play-calling of Wade Philips will once again be showcased in what would have been billed as the NFC Showdown of the year at the start of the season. Now the 1-6 Cowboys will head on the road to take on the improving Green Bay Packers. To make matters worse for “America’s Team,” Jon Kitna unleashed four interceptions last week against the worst secondary in the NFL. However, two of those interceptions were not Kitna’s fault as they bounced right out of the hands of Dallas receivers. Green Bay’s secondary has been improving and Kitna is far from an elite quarterback, so consider Kitna a QB2 or low upside desperation start in deeper leagues. With Kitna at the helm, the pecking order in receivers has also changed. Miles Austin remains the number one target and his production did not suffer last weekend with Kitna in. However, Dez Bryant has taken over the number 2 spot from Roy Williams and is a solid option this weekend as one of Kitna’s favorite targets. Jason Witten and Kitna have also established some chemistry; Witten caught 10 of his 12 targets last season for 97 yards and a touchdown. Start Witten with confidence. The ground attack in Dallas has taken the biggest hit from losing Romo. Marion Barber is becoming less and less effective and failed to pound it in on four tries from the 1-yard line. Felix Jones is also banged up and missed practice yesterday with an ankle injury. Tashard Choice will likely become a more involved part of the Cowboys offense and is worth a look in deeper leagues but should not be started until we have a better idea of how he will be used.

A-Rod and the Packers have got to be licking their chomps in anticipation of this home game against Dallas. David Garrard looked like a Pro-Bowler last weekend shredding apart the Dallas secondary. Rodgers should have similar success this weekend and post excellent numbers, this should come as no surprise but start Rodgers. The struggling secondary of Dallas bodes well for Jennings who has been in stride as the number one receiver in Green Bay. Jennings should continue his success this weekend and is a must start. Coach McCarthy has ruled Donald Driver out for this weekend meaning that James Jones and Jordy Nelson should be seeing increased playing times. Jones failed to run away with the number two slot last weekend after failing to haul in any of his five targets. Nelson, on the other hand, had a solid outing and is worth a look in this excellent matchup. We like Jones a little more though. The Packers have also been leaning more on the ground game to open up for the passing attack. This does not mean that Brandon Jackson is a must start, but he should manage to rack up some yardage and is now receiving goal line carries as well. If you have stashed BJax on your bench this season, this might be a good weekend to plug him in given the matchup.

Pittsburgh at Cincinatti
Big Ben and the Steelers had a rude awakening last weekend when the Saints got their groove back. However, the Bengals do not have the same pass rush as the Saints so Roethlisberger should post a rebound game with solid numbers. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward also struggled due to the blitz patterns of the Saints, but both should be safe starts this weekend. Wallace is a physical speedster and all he needs is one big play to have an excellent fantasy day. Heath Miller also struggled last weekend after coughing up a fumble and only hauling in two passes. Chalk up this poor performance to an improved defense in New Orleans. The entire Steelers offense struggled Sunday night, but they should be back with a vengeance in this primetime Monday Night showdown. Rashard Mendenhall was the lone bright spot on this Steelers defense after racking up 75 yards on the ground and finding the endzone. Mendenhall should be a safe bet against this downward spiraling Cinci team with garbage time potential.

Although Carson Palmer’s hip injury does not appear to be anything serious, he is not startable against the Steelers defense. While Brees was able to pass against the Steelers last weekend, Palmer is no Brees. As such, Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco should both be downgraded this weekend. Owens has emerged as the number 1 receiver in Cinci, but he will have a tough time against the Steelers defense. However, as the Bengals will likely be playing catchup ball against the Steelers there should be a handful of three receiver sets and long ball opportunities. Jordan Shipley has excelled in games where the Bengals use three receiver sets, however this matchup is too undesirable to plug him into your starting roster. This matchup will also be rough for Cedric Benson going against the number 1 rush defense in the NFL. Benson has been disappointing owners this season so if you have any better options, Benson should remain on your bench this weekend.