If you followed our recommendations of targeting Favre, McCoy, Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Brent Celek, or Jason Witten last week, or if you traded away Austin Collie or Marion Barber, then you're welcome.
If you acquired Ryan Mathews or any Pittsburgh player, be patient - your time is coming.
Targets (Buy-Low)
QBs
Aaron Rodgers (GB QB)
He looks to be healing from his concussion relatively quickly and could play this weekend. It's a longshot that his owner would part with him, but whenever a great player gets injured and I have depth at that spot, I'll target him because I'd rather have a healthy Rodgers for 8 weeks than Schaub and Matt Ryan for 10 weeks.
RBs
Ryan Mathews (SD RB)
He's been here before and his time is coming. If you watched the game Sunday, you saw the giant white cast thing on Mathews' arm. He was held out of practice today with the ankle. But Coach Turner continues to reiterate his plan for Mathews to be the guy, especially after Mike Tolbert averaged less than one yard-per-carry and Mathews averaged over 6 yards-per-carry on Sunday. He may not get 20 carries this weekend against St. Louis, but I'd gladly trade away Jonathan Stewart, Marion Barber, C.J. Spiller, or Brandon Jackson for Mathews - and his owners are getting desperate enough to make such a deal.
Ryan Torain (WAS RB)
Owners who just look at fantasy points typically lose out in trades. They just see disappointing points from Mathews and Torain, and ignore the overall circumstances. Torain is clearly the guy in Washington, getting 20 touches compared to just 2 for his backup Keiland Williams. Torain's 2.5 yards per carry likely didn't win you your matchup. But these days, any RB who will get you 20 touches is extremely valuable. I expect Torain to put together a solid game this weekend against Indianapolis. He has the 5th easiest schedule of RBs over the next 5 weeks. Get him while you can!
Marshawn Lynch (SEA RB)
We discussed him last week, but Coach Carroll is ready to make Lynch his starter. Justin Forsett is not just going to go away, but I expect Lynch to immediately become a decent flex option, if not RB2, in Seattle. Plus, Lynch has the 3rd easiest schedule over the next 5 weeks.
WRs
Greg Jennings (GB WR)
Jennings has landed here a few times because we know he's incredibly talented, but has just been posting pathetic numbers in the catches and yards department. The coaches met this week specifically because they realize they have to get Jennings the ball more often. I'm not confident he'll completely turn it around and become a WR1, but with Rodgers' concussion, Jennings' owner may sell him to you now for cheap.
Santonio Holmes (NYJ WR)
Holmes, Cotchery, and Edwards all posted similarly mediocre numbers. Holmes is still being worked into the offense and had several deep targets. It hasn't happened quite yet, but I expect him to completely displace Cotchery and become the leading receiver on the Jets.
DeSean Jackson (PHI WR)
Jackson's value appears to be completely dependent on Michael Vick. He's averaging 20 points when Vick starts and 3 points when Kevin Kolb starts. I don't expect Vick to play this weekend, as badly as he may want to face his former Atlanta team, but Vick should be back soon enough to make DeSean an impact player once again.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI WR)
After a bunch of slow performances from Fitz, you may have wondered why he hasn't graced the buy-low section before? It's because I could not say with confidence, "Oh this is is just a fluke; he'll be a top 3 WR by season's end." I've hated on Fitz since the preseason. But now, after 5 less than stellar games in a row, I'm finally ready to say the price is right. He had his highest yard total of the year (93) with Max Hall QB'ing. No one expected it to take the 3rd string QB to finally put the ball in Fitz's hands, but that may be exactly what's happened. Moreover, Fitzgerald has the #1 easiest schedules for a WR over the next 5 weeks.
Dez Bryant (DAL WR)
There's been a lot of Roy Williams hype recently and I don't want to downplay Williams too much, but I still think Bryant is the Dallas WR2 to own in the longrun. Bryant is always dealing with nicks, so don't go overboard, but get him cheap if you can because he has the 4th easiest upcoming schedule for WRs.
Pierre Garcon (IND WR)
Garcon and Collie both missed practice today, and their numbers looked similar enough on Sunday. However, Garcon had 14 targets compared to just 6 for Collie. Is it possible that after such stellar performances from Collie that Garcon can earn his starting job back? Yes, especially if Collie's injury continues to hamper him. I'm getting on Garcon while the getting is good!
Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, and Heath Miller - get ready for the comeback!
Unload (Sell High)
QBs
Carson Palmer, Chad Henne, and Tom Brady
I say this only because they all have tough schedules coming up with a majority of opposing defenses in the top ten against passers. Plus, you may recall that Tom Brady just lost one of the best receivers to ever play the game.
RBs
Marion Barber (DAL RB)
This isn't a sell-high, but it's a recommendation to sell Barber to anyone who thinks he's getting a good buy-low. We put Barber here last week and the Dallas coaches finally were true to their word about getting Felix Jones the ball more. They've said that pattern will continue, though we must temper that by noting that Barber is still nominally the starter. Barber faces the 4th hardest rushing schedule in the next few weeks. Barber's role is a bruising closer, but at 1-4, Dallas doesn't appear to be nursing many leads.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR RB)
Just like Barber, this is only because I think JStew's recent suckiness is not a fluke, and if another owner thinks it is a fluke, unload Stewart. I'm not denying Stewart's incredible talent, but he's the backup on a bad offense. The Panthers are starting Jimmy Clausen and no Steve Smith. Yikes. At this point, he's like any other backup - Bernard Scott or Rashad Jennings - he will only have value if DeAngelo Williams gets hurt.
You decide:
Brandon Jackson (GB RB)
We've talked a lot about BJax on this site, possibly too much. After hyping him, then being thoroughly disappointed by him, and now pleasantly surprised by one decent game from him, we just don't know what to say. So we'll let you decide:
Con: Jackson's yards per carry has been pathetic, against easy defenses at that. John Kuhn is taking away half of Jackson's carries, and the Packers have a decidedly pass-first offense. He only had a good day on Sunday because of one long 71 yard rush. When you take that away, his 9 carries for 44 yards looks a lot like his previous week of 9 for 33, 7 for 12, and 11 for 29. Finally, he has the hardest schedule of any RB over the next 5 weeks.
Pro: The Packer's "pass-first offense" will have to rely on the run more if Rodgers misses time. Even though Kuhn and Jackson have split carries so far, Jackson took a big leap ahead of Kuhn this weekend, getting more carries and a lot more yards. You shouldn't just "take away his 71 yard run" because he exhibited good burst and broke multiple tackles along the way. And even if you do take away the long run, his 9 for 44 would be his best yards-per-carry of the season. Finally, Jackson also posted a season high in receptions with 5 for 25. If you've stuck with him this far, hang on tight. If you don't have him, now's the time to grab him.
13 comments:
I have Keller and Hernandez as my TE's... I recieved a trade: I get Santonio Holmes for giving up keller... Whats your take on this?
I traded Torain to get Felix Jones... Was this a bad move?
9 carries for 44 yards is just under 5 ypc, which is great. The only concern I have with BJax is the coaching, NO running back can put up stellar numbers when they see so few touches, until the pack commits to a ground attack and gives Jackson the 20 carries grant was receiving he will continue to post pedestrian stat lines
Re: Holmes Trade - it depends on who your other receivers are. If you have 3 elite WRs already, then hold on to the 2 TEs, but if you see yourself rotating in Holmes, I like the trade. I'd probably make the deal.
I don't think that was a bad move. If it were my choice, I'd rather have Torain, but it could easily go either way. Here's my take on trades though (and waiver wire adds) - once you make the move, don't look back. If you drop Dwayne Bowe for Kenny Britt and Dwayne Bowe has a great game on someone else's roster, who cares?!? Just think about what you can do now to make your roster the best it can be.
Brett,
A struggling 1-4 owner offered me MJD for Rivers in my 10 team league. I have Orton, and Passing TDs are only 4 points anyway. But MJD won't play much since I have Mendenhall, Foster, Thomas, and Torain. He has no alternative player that can help my team except Gore. Am I crazy for hesitating?
i traded away bradshaw,lesean mccoy,j flacco
for big ben, ray rice n brandon tate(ne)?
good move?
what kind value does b tate have now as a starter?still k return?
Brett: On the Holmes trade, My current WR's are : Colston, Ammendola, Wallace, Crabtree , Deion Branch
Think I should make the deal, or am I good at Wideout?
Viva Mexico! Greetings. I have a question for the FFMVP staff. Keep in mind I am in a very deep league. Who would you start this week at the flex position: Willis McGahee, Jerricho Cotchery, or Deion Branch??
bradshaw mccoy and flacco for big ben rice n tate...i wouldn't have done it. bradshaw is solid RB2, Mccoy could outproduce rice. i'm not convinced big ben is that much superior to flacco. and tate??? they just traded for branch his role is unknown
Viva Mexico! Greetings amigos at FFMVP. Another question. Rotoworld (which generally sucks) ranks VY above Matt Shaub for this week. Could that be true?! Thoughts please.
finboy sucks
@Deadfrog - I would make that trade. Orton is legit. Rivers is a little better of course, but I think MJD should start for you every week. MJD, Foster, and Mendenhall would be a scary trio of RBs for any opponent to face.
@Anonymous re Bradshaw and Rice trade - I think I like it. I view it as a decent upgrade from Flacco to Roethlisberger, a big upgrade from Bradshaw to Rice, and a big downgrade from McCoy to Tate. Overall, I think the trade will help you.
@Holmes Trade: I like it then. You have good WRs but no ELITE guy (Moss, Austin, White), so a rotation of Colston, Crabtree, Holmes, and Wallace should be solid.
@Viva Mexico: That's tough. Cotchery hasn't been phased out yet, but I think I'd go with Branch. It's a lottery play anyway. Yes, Vince Young could be better than Schaub - not most meeks, just because of the matchup.
Thanks Brett,
I'm playing the owner this week, and so I told him I'll hold off on any trades until after we play each other. I'm thinking of offering Orton and maybe one of my spare WRs (Ward or BTate) for Gore. Maybe then he'll refuse and I'll counter by asking for MJD. He's thin at WR.
I'm really hard pressed to trade Rivers... I'm not exactly thin at RB (knock on wood) with Thomas coming back for the second half of the season... And Rivers' schedule is money...
If anything, I could use a TE after losing Finley. I did snag Hernandez... Keeping fingers crossed with him...
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