1) Marshawn Lynch traded to the Seahawks
Just when Justin Forsett looked to be emerging from this 3-headed monster as a feature back, Lynch comes in and steals his thunder. I don’t foresee Forsett taking a mere handcuff role as some analysts are predicting. But it's likely that Lynch will immediately get the most carries in this backfield. Julius Jones was released and Leon Washington has not been involved much, except on special teams. Definitely drop Leon Washington and Julius Jones if you haven't already. Lynch's running style is a great fit for what Coach Carroll wants to see out of his team. We sometimes talk about Lynch like he's washed up, but he's 24 and a very physical runner. Don't trip over yourself to acquire Lynch, but his value just increased, and Forsett's fell.
This is also great news for C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Jackson was named the team's starter today and can expect 15 touches this Sunday against Jacksonville. But Spiller is a little more explosive, electric, exciting and any other cliche "e" word that fantasy analysts like to use to say that Spiller can do more with fewer touches. Suddenly, Jackson and Spiller are both viable flex plays in easy matchups. Now that there's a little more clarity with Lynch gone, we'll see if Jackson or Spiller can outproduce the other and become a true starter. The upside is capped because of how bad the Bills are on every dimension. But you should add them if they were dropped, and can probably start either one on Sunday.
They say in Jazz music, it's often the notes you don't hear that matter. Here, it's the trades that didn't happen that also matter. First, the Eagles didn't go out of their way to get Lynch, which indicates that even if LeSean McCoy misses Sunday, his injury is not too serious. Second, we've heard over and over again that the Packers would be the best fit for Lynch. They are desperate to establish a running game because Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn aren't keeping defenses honest or allowing for many successful play-action passes. But apparently, the Packers aren't so desperate as to cough up a high enough price for Lynch. I was very close to dropping Jackson or Kuhn in 10 and 12 team leagues, but I won't do it just yet. We've given them plenty of chances, but let's give them one more against Washington and see what happens.
2) Randy Moss traded to the Vikings.
Wowza. I didn't see this coming. Everyone is asking, what does this to the value of Randy Moss, Brett Favre, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe, Adrian Peterson, Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Julian Edleman, Danny Woodhead, Tom Brady, and Aaron Hernandez? Football involves a complex scheme of moving parts, so moving an elite player like Moss will have a huge impact on the Vikings and Patriots, but don't overestimate the impact it will have on the players' fantasy values. It will have a big impact on some, and very little impact on others.
The biggest change is the increase in Brett Favre's value. Sure, Favre is getting older. But even though he may eat dinner at 4:30 at The Sizzler and grumpily ask "What the heck is Tweeter?," Favre is still a capable gun-slinger. His drop-off in production has a lot to do with the absence of Sidney Rice and any real deep threat. Shiancoe tried to fill that void, but now the best deep threat in the game comes to town. Expect a ton of deep shots from Favre to Moss going forward.
It is of course a significant blow to Tom Brady's value. But rumors of Brady's fantasy death are a bit premature. The Patriots are using the two tight end set more than any team in the league, and Moss wasn't being used as much as in past years. Moss's release is a great sign for Aaron Hernandez who may run more deep routes now. Some say the Patriots' confidence in Hernandez is what allowed them to trade Moss. It's also great news for sophomore, Brandon Tate. Tate returned a kickoff for a TD on Monday, and now hopes to get his first receiving TD as he lines up in all 2 receiver sets with Wes Welker. You cannot just place Tate in this system and think he'll be Randy Moss-lite. But at the same time, we're talking about Tom frickin' Brady. You have to pickup Brandon Tate if he's available in your league.
There's always a debate about whether adding a 2nd good WR is good for the 1st. Rotoworld suggested today that many people think Welker is only good because of Moss's double coverage. That coverage has helped Welker get open, but Welker is not an ordinary player; he's an elite talent. Wes Welker will see more targets, but more coverage. Percy Harvin will see less targets, but also less coverage. I tend to think it balances out. Welker will see more targets and catch more balls, but his catch completion percentage will go down, and his average yards per catch will go down. Percy Harvin's targets and catches will go down (at least down from week 3 when he was finally getting healthy and jiving with Favre), but his catch percentage and yards per catch will go up. Thus, in standard formats I think their value doesn't change much, but in PPR formats, Welker's value went up and Harvin's declined a little. But we'll see.
Danny Woodhead and Julian Edelman have a chance to get a few more looks, but I'm not adding either one. I'm watching Woodhead to see if he does anything this weekend though. This opens things up for Adrian Peterson a little more, so I may bump him up to the #1 overall player rather than the #2, but that's hardly an actionable piece of analysis unless you want to trade Chris Johnson for him. Finally, this is probably not a good indication for Sidney Rice's health. He's still on crutches, and his week 8 target return date is looking less realistic. You can drop Rice in 10 team leagues and most 12 team leagues.
Trade Targets
QBs
Brett Favre (MIN QB)
See above.
Matt Schaub (HOU QB)
Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are injured, and the Texans are asking, "Why throw the ball when we can run it down their throats with Arian Foster?" But Matt Schaub is still playing great football. Last year's league leader in passing yards is now throwing a good amount of TDs (7 so far) to go along with that. If Schaub's owner thinks he is less than a top 5 QB, snatch him away.
Jay Cutler (CHI QB)
Sunday was ugly. But it's got to get better from there. The announcers reminded us that Cutler has always been awful in away games at night. So bench him in those, but you can start him any other week. Chicago's top priority this week must be "Don't let Cutler get sacked 10 times." He also looks to be healing from the concussion and will be fine to play against Carolina this week.
WRs
Randy Moss (MIN WR)
See above.
Mike Wallace and Hines Ward (PIT WRs)
Reports of Ben Roethlisberger have been incredible. He should step in and immediately make this one of the league's best passing games.
Johnny Knox (CHI WR)
Knox is still yet to find the endzone and had a horrible game, along with the rest of the Bears offense on Sunday. But he'll get better. Buy Knox while his value is really low.
RBs
LeSean McCoy (PHI RB)
His owner will think he's ripping you off by giving you an injured guy, but McCoy might still play Sunday, and he should at least be back by next week. While Kolb is the QB for a few weeks, you can expect 60 rushing yards and 60 receiving yards from McCoy most weeks.
Ray Rice (BAL RB)
Many have called Rice a bust. So far, he has been. But he looks to be fully healthy, and I'm not worried about Willis McGahee suddenly being the starter after last week. Rice will get his 20 touches going forward, and you know what this guy can do with those touches. Grab him now, and be patient.
Ryan Mathews (SD RB)
Mathews' value has certainly sunk since draft day. Owners may think he's Tolbert's backup now. But Coach Turner affirmed that Mathews is still their feature back, but he suffered an elbow injury (If you watched the game, you saw that big white thing on his arm). Tolbert is not going away, but I think Mathews is still a decent RB2.
Fred Jackson (BUF RB) and C.J. Spiller (BUF RB)
See above.
Felix Jones (DAL RB)
Numerous reports have said that the Cowboys are making it a point to give Felix Jones more touches. Some have called Barber, "Marion the Librarian." I wouldn't go overboard with this bit of news, but I do think Jones is now a little more valuable than Barber.
TEs
Aaron Hernandez (NE TE)
See above.
Jason Witten (DAL TE)
Witten has recovered from his week 3 concussion. He's off to a slow-start but I expect him to pick things up.
Heath Miller (PIT TE)
The return of Big Ben will increase his value. Miller is probably a free agent in many leagues, so you can just pick him up. If you're in a deep league though, you can trade your Marcedes Lewis or Tony Moeaki for Miller.
Brent Celek (PHI TE)
While Vick is away, Kolb and Celek will play. Expect the roomies to connect a bunch on the field.
Unload (Sell-High)
QBs
Tom Brady (NE QB)
See above. Only do it for a top guy though - Romo or Schaub perhaps.
WRs
Austin Collie (IND WR)
Don't misunderstand me; Collie is legit. But Pierre Garcon is healthy and will eat into Collie's targets a little bit, and there's just no way Collie can keep this up. Only upload him for a good price though.
DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin (PHI WRs)
Kolb has no deep game. Look at Jackson and Maclin's pathetic numbers from Sunday. They're both talented, and Vick will return. So don't panic too much. But if the price is right...
Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ WRs)
Santonio Holmes returns this week and will immediately sap these WRs' targets away. Cotchery should probably be dropped in all but the deepest formats. If you are in a deep league though, trade away Cotchery now.
RBs
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT RB)
Mendenhall is still a top 10 RB, but Big Ben's return will likely mean more passing and less running. I just traded Mendenhall for Rice - not a steal at all, but I think I traded the 7th best RB for the 5th.
Cadillac Williams (TB RB)
Williams can be dropped in shallow formats, but if you can get anything for him, trade him now. Kareem Huggins and LeGarrette Blount are quickly overtaking Fragile Caddy.
Justin Forsett (SEA RB)
See above.
Marion Barber (DAL RB)
See Felix Jones analysis above.
13 comments:
CrAzY cOuPlE dAyZzzzzzzz!!!!
So I shouldn't try to move Welker if I have him?
I would keep Welker. I don't think his value changes. He does most of his work in the area between the line of scrimmage and 10 yards out. No one can cover him in that space.
I wish I could trade for Schaub... damn owner has Vick... And I have Cutler.
Anyway, Brett, I have an interesting question for you. It seems as though we think alike from what I read, so your opinion should prove interesting. Others, feel free to chime in.
In my 12 team league, I keep missing out week after week on waiver pickups, both long term prospects or one week replacements alike. My team is suffering from the inflexibility and inability to roll with a better match-up when the need arises, such as Jay Cutler on the road at night. Why is this occurring? Because I have backed myself into a corner with my early season waiver pickups; I simply don't have anyone 'droppable' (knock on wood) left on my roster.
Cutler
Rice, McCoy, Forte, Wells, Hillis
Fitzgerald, Colston, Holmes, Clayton, Floyd
Davis
Nugent
Chargers DST
My instinct is to trade 2 or 3 players to land a stud, and then replace the roster spot(s) with a prospect that might have the same value anyway when it's all said and done. But all of my players either have low temporary value (esp. Wells, Rice, Colston) or aren't poor enough to warrant paying for half of (attainable) studs.
I missed out on Torain, Gaffney, Garcon, Tate, Dez Bryant, Gaffney, Jacobs, Hernandez, and even Jets DST. It's killing me. I'm ultra grateful for having a deep team in a standard league (no flex), but when bye weeks come (esp. for QB/TE/DST), I'll be in a tough spot. I need at least one bench spot to play around with, don't I? What do I do? Owners have turned down offers for guys like CJ, Foster, Manning, Peterson, White... often because they don't need help at RB/WR.
Thanks in advance!
Which receiver do you like best for the rest of the year: Maclin, Hines Ward or Mike Wallace?
@dead frog, I would recommend trying to combo an rb/wr for an elite wr or rb, maybe try and trade wells or mccoy with fitzgerald to the guy who has megatron or miles austin and see if they'll bite because they need help at rb? i too know the pain of not knowing who to drop and have been burned by missing out on big opportunities
@anonymous, i'd definitely have to say mike wallace, he led the league in yards per reception last season and now he has his quarterback who can hurl the long bomb back
What should I do with the injured Steve Smith?
Rumors swirling about Branch to NE...would this increase his value? He's been sitting on my bench and I'm close to cutting him lose.
It depends on your depth, when Moore comes back smith should be an every week start if healthy, I'd say monitor his injury report, if he's only out a couple weeks then he's worth hanging onto, in the meantime check for substitutions on the waiver wire to complement the other Steve smith that you have rahuligan
You da best Coco. Another question: Jets or Giants D?
Giants rocked it last week and fucked up my backup QB, but Jets have been pretty consistent. Favre is back, though, and I don't know if he is ready to put up big points.
@Deadfrog: That's a great roster with depth. But I completely agree that you have to pull off some kind of 2-for-1 deal to make room. When Vernon Davis is on bye and you need to pick up a replacement, are you going to drop Malcolm Floyd? That's a scary proposition. With that in mind, you may have to compromise a little - trade Floyd and Clayton for 1 WR that's only a little better than them both, because you'd end up dropping one of them anyway.
@Anonymous: I think I'd rank them Wallace, Maclin, Ward.
@Beerman: I think it's safe to cut Deon Branch either way.
@rbarwani: You can't cut Steve Smith loose. It sucks that he will be out for up to 5 or 6 weeks, but he could be back sooner.
I'd probably go with Giants D this week especially because Revis is likely out.
But the texans offense doesn't make many mistakes, both the Vikings and the texans will post enough points to negate the question of your defense keeping any of the preliminary points. Therefore, you have to look at the likelihood of sacks, interceptions, and fumbles, favre and AP are machines for both, I would recommend the jets defense over the giants
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