Perhaps there is no position in football more important than the kicker. Think about how many games are decided by a last minute or last second field goal. Just this past weekend, the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots beat the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens respectively with overtime field goals. Four more teams, the Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Indianapolis Colts, and Minnesota Vikings, were each winners by a margin of three points - or one field goal.
And then there are the heart-breaking missed field goals. None more famous than Scott Norwood’s missed field goal in the waning moments of Super Bowl XXV, resulting in the Buffalo Bill’s defeat to the New York Giants by the score of 19-20. To this day, NFL historians refer to this game as the “Wide Right Game.” The Cincinnati Bengals fired Shayne Graham last year after he missed two critical field goals in their playoff loss to the New York Jets. Just last month, Sebastian Janikowski missed an “easy” 32 yard field goal in Arizona, resulting in a 24-23 loss for the Oakland Raiders.
Kickers are so crucial to football, the sport itself was apparently named after them even though the overwhelming majority of football players never actually kick the ball.
But still, there is something bizarre about kickers. As a group, they are non-descript and relatively unknown. Their names do not appear on the backs of children’s NFL jerseys. Their images are almost never in commercials, billboards, or other promotional materials. Aside from Pittsburgh’s Jeff Reed, they are rarely the subject of off-field scandal. It is almost as if the kicker plays an entirely different sport than the rest of his team. The kicker is generally exempt from the push and pull of the game- tackling, blocking, and the mano-a-mano grit of the line of scrimmage. The kicker is the only player who leaves the field with a clean uniform. (Apologies to Sebastian Janikowski who may actually be Oakland’s best tackler.)
In the world of fantasy football, the kicker is no less mysterious. Kickers are often the last players selected in fantasy football drafts. This is not because their point contributions are less significant, but rather, because they are hopelessly arbitrary. In most scoring formats, kickers score just as many points per week as the average running back or wide receiver. But unlike other players, kickers have no control over their opportunities to score. They will often earn your fantasy team the obligatory one point following touchdowns they had nothing to do with. Ideally, the offense struggles in or near the red zone, giving the kicker an opportunity to kick a field goal and score between three and five points for your team. The theoretical quest to identify the team that consistently reaches field goal range but fails to score touchdowns has proven to be impossible. Instead, fantasy owners tend to select kickers who play for teams with strong offenses (e.g., the Colts, Patriots, Packers, and Saints). Most like to think that this is the best strategy.
It is not. Frankly, most fantasy managers would be surprised to learn that the highest point-scoring kickers are respectively Nick Folk (New York Jets), Jason Hanson (Detroit Lions) and Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland Raiders). More to the point, most fantasy owners do not care who the top kickers are because it will not change their strategy. Jason Hanson is owned in only 11 percent of Yahoo’s leagues. Can you imagine any other position where the second highest point scorer would be ignored by almost 90 percent of fantasy managers?
To be fair, fantasy football is unavoidably arbitrary. The end of season rankings rarely resemble the preseason rankings. But kickers bring their own special brand of arbitrary, with dramatic fluctuation and unpredictable week-by-week performance. Jason Hanson scored 2 fantasy points in a road loss to the Chicago Bears but then scored 17 points in a road loss to the Green Bay Packers and 16 points in a home win over the St. Louis Rams. There is no strategy or theory that accounts for this kind of variation.
I realize that there is something almost blasphemous about even suggesting that kickers be excluded from fantasy football rosters. But there is no denying (or making sense of) the results. We blame our running backs, receivers, and quarterbacks for failing to get those extra yards, receptions, or touchdowns. Yet kickers are let off the hook as we implicitly acknowledge their unpredictable point-production. For those of us who believe that fantasy football match-ups should be decided by more than just a coin flip, it may be time to abandon the kickers.
And then there are the heart-breaking missed field goals. None more famous than Scott Norwood’s missed field goal in the waning moments of Super Bowl XXV, resulting in the Buffalo Bill’s defeat to the New York Giants by the score of 19-20. To this day, NFL historians refer to this game as the “Wide Right Game.” The Cincinnati Bengals fired Shayne Graham last year after he missed two critical field goals in their playoff loss to the New York Jets. Just last month, Sebastian Janikowski missed an “easy” 32 yard field goal in Arizona, resulting in a 24-23 loss for the Oakland Raiders.
Kickers are so crucial to football, the sport itself was apparently named after them even though the overwhelming majority of football players never actually kick the ball.
But still, there is something bizarre about kickers. As a group, they are non-descript and relatively unknown. Their names do not appear on the backs of children’s NFL jerseys. Their images are almost never in commercials, billboards, or other promotional materials. Aside from Pittsburgh’s Jeff Reed, they are rarely the subject of off-field scandal. It is almost as if the kicker plays an entirely different sport than the rest of his team. The kicker is generally exempt from the push and pull of the game- tackling, blocking, and the mano-a-mano grit of the line of scrimmage. The kicker is the only player who leaves the field with a clean uniform. (Apologies to Sebastian Janikowski who may actually be Oakland’s best tackler.)
In the world of fantasy football, the kicker is no less mysterious. Kickers are often the last players selected in fantasy football drafts. This is not because their point contributions are less significant, but rather, because they are hopelessly arbitrary. In most scoring formats, kickers score just as many points per week as the average running back or wide receiver. But unlike other players, kickers have no control over their opportunities to score. They will often earn your fantasy team the obligatory one point following touchdowns they had nothing to do with. Ideally, the offense struggles in or near the red zone, giving the kicker an opportunity to kick a field goal and score between three and five points for your team. The theoretical quest to identify the team that consistently reaches field goal range but fails to score touchdowns has proven to be impossible. Instead, fantasy owners tend to select kickers who play for teams with strong offenses (e.g., the Colts, Patriots, Packers, and Saints). Most like to think that this is the best strategy.
It is not. Frankly, most fantasy managers would be surprised to learn that the highest point-scoring kickers are respectively Nick Folk (New York Jets), Jason Hanson (Detroit Lions) and Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland Raiders). More to the point, most fantasy owners do not care who the top kickers are because it will not change their strategy. Jason Hanson is owned in only 11 percent of Yahoo’s leagues. Can you imagine any other position where the second highest point scorer would be ignored by almost 90 percent of fantasy managers?
To be fair, fantasy football is unavoidably arbitrary. The end of season rankings rarely resemble the preseason rankings. But kickers bring their own special brand of arbitrary, with dramatic fluctuation and unpredictable week-by-week performance. Jason Hanson scored 2 fantasy points in a road loss to the Chicago Bears but then scored 17 points in a road loss to the Green Bay Packers and 16 points in a home win over the St. Louis Rams. There is no strategy or theory that accounts for this kind of variation.
I realize that there is something almost blasphemous about even suggesting that kickers be excluded from fantasy football rosters. But there is no denying (or making sense of) the results. We blame our running backs, receivers, and quarterbacks for failing to get those extra yards, receptions, or touchdowns. Yet kickers are let off the hook as we implicitly acknowledge their unpredictable point-production. For those of us who believe that fantasy football match-ups should be decided by more than just a coin flip, it may be time to abandon the kickers.
10 comments:
Akers missed three fgs last weekend that were easy chip shots given his leg strength (and what he is paid), had he hit one of those fgs I would have won my matchup, instead I got to see rob bironas literally kick me into the loss column, I'm all for abandoning the kicker
Dude, I feel you. That's just awful. And you theoretically got a great kicker in Akers. And I assume the other guy didn't put a ton of time and research into drafting and starting Bironas. It's a crapshoot
I've seen increasingly more sentiment about not having Ks on the roster -- I just read a forum post on that topic either at FFToday or FootballGuys. I am thinking of trying that out next year. The K position is way too unpredictable, even as FF goes.
That said, I'd like to add that I just wrote a post that discusses kicker selection strategy for those in leagues that still employ the K -- which is probably 99% of them.
Here's the link to that post: http://www.ffmba.com/2010/10/how-to-choose-kicker-for-your-fantasy.html
BTW, thanks for the comment on my blog, ffmba.com. I will look to add links to your Waiver posts in the future; actually, I had stumbled upon your blog a while ago and already had put a link to it on my blog under Resources -> FF Blogs. Keep up the good work!
I will heretofore present my kicker strategy and urge you to respond with input. I have three rules about kickers and it has served me well:
Rule #1: Avoid the handful of kickers having a bad year with accuracy (Tynes, Bueler, Hartley)
Rule #2: Drop your kicker for a speculative waiver player, then pick up a new kicker at 12:30 on Sunday. For instance, pick up Crayton and see if Naanee AND Floyd are inactive Sunday morning. Or pick up a good DST if your opponent is hard up for one that week. Best case = your pickup will help your team; worst case = your pickup will hurt your opponent's chances, even if it means dropping him to waivers.
Rule #3: Pick up a kicker you feel will be money for four scores. What I have found is that as long as your kicker is a lock to score four times with a good chance at five or more, he'll usually avoid laying an egg for you and has a great chance to have an impact day. Trying to find offenses who are good but sputter out or defenses who give up yards but tighten up and yield field goals is over-thinking it. Just go with your gut about which kicker is money for four scores. If the offense/matchup is shaky, stay away.
I feel these rules have helped me a lot. I wanted to present some stats to back up my argument, so here it goes:
In my 12 team league, I'm dead last in kicking points accrued. I tried to ride Tynes too much in the beginning; he proved to be 'one of those guys' this year. You can't help it in the beginning of the year. Despite this hiccup, I retain the division lead (knock on wood). The team that is 6-0 is third worst in kicking. The second best team at 5-1 is fourth worst in kicking.
In my ten team league, I have the third worst kicking points accrued even though I have the league leading record and most points scored by nearly 20 (knock on some more wood). The team with the second best record is fourth worst in kicking and the team with the third best record is dead last in kicking.
So, in summation, may I present to you my conclusion:
I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS I HATE KICKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you.
Chris, I just read your article on selecting kickers. Here are the results for the top 7 kickers in two leagues that have different scoring which I participate in. (Yahoo = more distance bonuses):
Rule #1: K on good defense team.
Yahoo and CBS: 4 of 7 qualify
Rule #2: K on good but not great offense.
Yahoo and CBS: 3 of 7 qualify
Rule #3: K with big leg.
Yahoo and CBS: 3 of 7 qualify
Rule #4: K with high accuracy.
Yahooand CBS: 7 of 7 qualify (very self-fulfilling though, and most kickers are accurate if they are still employed)
Rule #5: K playing in good weather down the stretch.
N/A yet
Yahoo top 7 = Folk, Bironas, Janikowski, Hanson, Bryant, Scobee, Vinatieri
CBS top 7 = Folk, Janikowski, Bironas, Hanson, Bryant, Prater, Vinatieri
Nice try, dude. That, my friends, is what we call unpredictability. There is no good correlation here between the rules you laid out and the actual results. Want to know what predicts the best fantasy kickers? The ONE thing that ALL top 7 Yahoo AND CBS league kickers have in common? They haven't had their bye week yet!!!!
Hahha certainly agreed dead frog, kickers are the worst and give me the biggest headache
"Kickers are so crucial to football, the sport itself was apparently named after them even though the overwhelming majority of football players never actually kick the ball."
Football was named such because it grew out of sports played on foot (as opposed to on horseback, such as polo).
How Ironic to have to read this when I have to go with no kicker this week. I can't drop anyone except Rackers since P.Manning and M.Vick are not playing... Laces Out
Should I go w/ J.Freeman or A.Smith Week 7
Interesting discussion. Deadfrog, I agree with your kicker strategy for the most part. I like the idea of dropping your kicker if a) he's mediocre and b) you're picking up a guy who (like you said with Crayton and Floyd) you'll know more about before Sunday. So if I have Dan Carpenter, Joe Addai, and Donald Brown on my roster, it might make sense to drop Carpenter next week for Mike Hart. Then right before week 8, you drop Hart or Brown depending on who is actually healthy for the best available kicker. However, if I have Rob Bironas and a free spot, I wouldn't necessarily drop Bironas to pickup Mike Williams (SEA) and Deion Branch. We're not going to learn anything new about them before Sunday and I'll have to drop one of them anyway. So I may as well hold on to my solid kicker and make up my mind now for which of these speculative WRs I'd rather have (personally, I'd choose Branch.)
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