HOT
QBs
Jay Cutler (CHI QB) vs. SEA 5
You may hesitate to start Cutler. He started out strong but then posted -3 points in week four, and 0 points in last week's game that he missed due to a concussion. I'm often weary of players in their first game back after an injury, but in this case, Cutler probably could have played last week. The league is just extra-sensitive to concussions, and the Bears likely figured that they could beat Carolina with or without Cutler. In this easy matchup, I expect Mike Martz's offense to produce another solid day for Cutler.
Joe Flacco (BAL QB) vs. NE 3
After a slow start, Flacco is now bordering on every-week starter status. Until then, he's worth mentioning in this column. Last year, Flacco posted 264 yards, 2 TDs, and a pick against New England. The Pats secondary is even weaker this year.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT QB) vs. CLE 15
Like Cutler, you may be thinking that you should wait until Big Ben gets back in the flow of the game before starting him. On the contrary, all systems are go for Ben and he should have no problem picking apart Cleveland if that's what he's called upon to do. And that's my one concern: the Steelers are 3-1 but rank dead last in the league in passing. Roethlisberger commented this week that he doesn't want to mess with a good thing. If the Steelers can beat the Browns with their defense and Mendenhal alone, then Ben simply won't have the opportunities. Still, I expect Ben to post some solid numbers, at least in the first half - maybe a deep TD to Mike Wallace.
Vince Young (TEN QB) vs. JAC 1
Young has been decent lately. But this pick is due to little more than the fact that Young is competent, and facing the Jaguars. That's all you need for success. Plus, with Kenny Britt's emergence, Young has a solid developing target.
RBs
Thomas Jones (KC RB) vs. HOU 10
You're probably starting Jamaal Charles every week, and he makes for an excellent start this week. You may be hesitant to start Jones, especially coming off a two point game. In this game against Houston however, there should be enough production to go around. Jones is a solid flex start this week.
Brandon Jacobs (NYG RB) vs. DET 2
Jacobs is Bradshaw's backup, nothing more. New York has been playing so well lately that in this blowout against Detroit, I expect Jacobs to get double digit carries in the second half and stumble his way into the endzone.
Marshawn Lynch (SEA RB) vs. CHI 20
It's not a great matchup, so I'm placing Lynch here more because of the role I expect him to play on this offense. He should start the game and get 15-20 carries as Justin Forsett plays a third down / change of pace role. That should be enough for 7 or 8 points from Lynch, making him flex-worthy.
Ryan Torain (WAS RB) vs. IND 8
Torain did not have a good day against Green Bay last week, but the more important takeaway was that Torain is the man in Washington. If he gets 20 touches again in this easier matchup, Torain should be a solid RB2.
WRs
Johnny Knox (CHI WR) vs. SEA 5
Knox had just 1 catch in each of his last 2 games. But in games with Jay Cutler (when he's not concussed for half the game), Knox is averaging almost 80 yards per game. In this easy matchup, Cutler and Knox's chemistry should continue improving. I expect Knox to put up a good game.
Pierre Garcon (IND WR) vs. WAS 6
Garcon had more than twice as many targets as Austin Collie last week. A lot of this rotation depends on health: both Collie and Garcon returned to a limited practice yesterday. We'll see how much they do today, but their rotation could be equal meaning both are decent flex options against Washington.
Kenny Britt (TEN WR) vs. JAC 1
Britt will be Vince Young's number one target on Monday Night Football. And Jacksonville is the easiest matchup for WRs.
TEs
Tony Moeaki (KC TE) vs. HOU 2
Moeaki has been Cassel's most sure-handed receiver. In this easy matchup, Moeaki should have a big game.
Kellen Winslow (TB TE) vs. NO 5
Winslow is yet to find the endzone, but he is Josh Freeman's 2nd favorite target behind Mike Williams. The Saints have been killers against WRs and weak against TEs, so Winslow should be the Bucs leading receiver this weekend.
NOT
QBs
Tom Brady v BAL 32
Brady's coming off his worst game of the season, lost his best weapon in Randy Moss, faces the hardest secondary in the league, and now Justin Bieber is ragging on him. Tom Brady is an elite QB, so I don't foresee a bad game, but it won't be a great game either.
RBs
Peyton Hillis (CLE RB) vs. PIT 31
Hillis has been incredible with a TD in every game this season. I expect him to come back down to earth for three reasons: 1) He's dealing with a mild injury, 2) Colt McCoy is his starting QB, and 3) Pittsburgh presents a very difficult matchup. Hillis will get tons of carries, but if you have any better options, bench Hillis because I doubt he can do much with those carries.
Marion Barber (DAL RB) vs. MIN 24
Coach Phillips has said that Barber is still his starter. But last week, Barber played the first snap of the game before Felix Jones immediately took over and played the majority of the game. That trend should continue. I don't expect Barber to get double digit carries, which won't be enough for flex numbers against the Williams Wall.
WRs
DeSean Jackson (PHI WR) vs. ATL 24
DeSean has done nothing with Kevin Kolb at the helm. Kolb will get another start this week against Atlanta's tough secondary. I hesitate to put him here, because all Jackson needs is one play - one 60 yard TD bomb. But I'm not counting on it if I have any other options.
Mike Williams (TB WR) vs. NO 32
I'm very excited about Williams' development, as he busted out for 99 yards and a TD last week. But this week he faces the toughest matchup for WRs in the league. Bench him if you have any serviceable options.
TEs
Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN TE) vs. DAL 23
The forecast for Moss's impact on Shiancoe's value proved correct on Monday night. If Brett Favre is going deep or looking for a redzone target, Moss is now the guy, not Shiancoe.
Chris Cooley (WAS TE) vs. IND 32
Cooley has been playing very well and McNabb looks to him a lot. It would have to be the worst matchup in the league for me to recommend benching him - which is exactly what Indy's defense presents. They've been TE-killers, so if you have a backup TE (Aaron Hernandez or Marcedes Lewis for example), bench Cooley this week.
15 comments:
AJ is healthy you don't think shaub will put up big #s??
Even with a healthy AJ schaub has struggled. Something needs to start clicking in the Houston passing game before schaub can return to top five qb status
Also the coltshavent faced a te like Cooley yet this season, he's a big part of their offense and is used as a wr in many cases, I'm hesitAnt to bench him in one of my leagues over the scrubs on the wire
Torrain played the pack last week not Philly, and the pack have been much rougher on the run, I'd expect a solid game out of him this weekend
Is this the year of the bieber? Cutler and orton are also rocking the mop top?
@The Truth - Good point about Cooley. I wouldn't just pick someone up and start him over Cooley. But like I said, if you have a quality backup, now's the time to use him. You're right that the only decent TEs Indy has faced are Marcedes Lewis and Tony Moeaki.
Thanks for the head up on Torain; I fixed that error in the article.
UPDATE: Both Collie and Garcon returned to a full practice today. After the stellar play Collie had in the beginning of the season, it's hard to imagine Garcon getting more snaps than him, so we'll see. Garcon has upside if you're desperate though.
Do you like Orton or Flacco more this week?
I like both quite a bit, but I like Orton more. He has been playing lights out. Plus, the Jets have been a surprisingly generous secondary.
Do you like Romo or Orton this week?
I dunno about sitting Brady. He is going to expose the weak Baltimore coverage. Put it in stone, he's a lock to light up the Ravens.
Brett, here are the big decisions for me this week:
Orton or Cutler?
Forte or McCoy?
Wallace or Ward?
Torain or Foster?
I usually have a strong conviction one way or the other, but this week is interesting... I'll tell you what I think after your input :)
orton or big ben dis week?
what backup should i pickup for NO- betts or ivory?
what backup should i pickup for TB-graham or blount?
thanks!!
@anonymous: Orton over Romo, but that's very close.
@Deadfrog:
Orton, Forte, Wallace, Foster
@Anonymous
Orton.
It seemed like Betts the last 2 weeks, but he messed up royally last week. So I think it has to be a little more Ivory going forward. It's such a great matchup against Tampa, but I don't know if either back will get enough carries to be start-worthy.
On the Bucs side, Blount got one more carry (4, 3), but Graham avaeraged 20 yards-per-carry more than Blount (21.7, .8). That's hard to ignore. So after all that "Blount is the goalline back hype," I would rather own and start Graham right now.
I'm a fish.
Well, well, well... Someone has a huge man-crush on ol' neck-beard!
I'm leaning towards him with Revis hobbled. (That's what the idiot gets for holding out)
I like Forte and Wallace as well.
Foster is more dangerous than Torain, but the KC defense is legit... I'll probably start Foster.
Thinking alike again... I should play you next year, you'd probably take all the same players though...
Schaub or Big Ben?
I'd go with Schaub.
Thanx... that's a VERY tough call.
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