Hot or Not - Week 5 (Start F. Jackson and Torain over Barber and Greene)

In this week’s Hot or Not, you’ll notice we’ve added a number next to each player’s opponent. That is the opponent’s rank in easiness of matchup at that position. There’s a “6” next to Denver in the QB section, meaning that the Broncos are the 6th most generous defense to opposing QBs. Also, just a friendly reminder that when we say “Hot,” we don’t mean the hottest start in the NFL – otherwise we’d list Arian Foster instead of Ladell Betts. Instead, we mean “Hot relative to his usual value and/or relative to how many people perceive him,” but that isn’t as catchy as "Hot or Not." Good luck this week! If you’re 0-4, don’t give up hope yet! (That applies to the 49ers too.)

QB

Joe Flacco (BAL QB) vs. DEN 6
Flacco proved that he can get it done even in tough matchups against Pittsburgh last week. And even with a healthy Champ Bailey, Denver has not been a tough matchup. In part, this is because opposing QBs are throwing a lot to keep up with Kyle “Neck-Beard” Orton. Congrats if you bought low on Flacco after the first 2 weeks; he’s an underrated top 10 option.


Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF QB) vs. JAC 1
Fitzpatrick’s recent work has been admirable, especially considering he is throwing to guys like “Steve Johnson,” which sounds a lot like a made up name. Fitzpatrick led Harvard to some wins in the great Harvard-Yale rivalry. As bad as those college teams are, they could give Jacksonville and Buffalo a run for their money. Yeah, Jacksonville pulled off a win against Indy last week, and they deserved it, but I still think this game is a toilet-bowl matchup. Anyway, Fitzpatrick is getting it done on the ground which turns an okay fantasy day into a great fantasy day.


Brett Favre (MIN QB) vs. NYJ 12
Did you hear about this new guy that was just traded to the Vikes? Andy Moss?
The biggest trade of the season has the fantasy football community spinning with predictions about the impact on the teams and players. Favre has said he will throw to Moss a ton, even if Moss is double covered. With Moss running deep and Percy Harvin running short, I expect a bounce-back game from Favre.


Eli Manning (NYG QB) vs. HOU 2
Eli has made very effective use of Hakeem Nicks. Playing Houston is a gift for any QB.


Sam Bradford (STL QB) vs. DET 5
Bradford is extremely talented. He’s taking full advantage of the 8 men in the box that Steven Jackson gets, by going deep to Mark Clayton. All of the sudden, the Rams offense is becoming a little more balanced and effective. Now Bradford gets the Lions.


RB

Fred Jackson (BUF RB) vs. JAC 9
Now that Lynch is gone, we can start to gain clarity on the Buffalo backfield. Coach says Jackson is the starter. FJax hasn’t done diddly for you all year, but now’s your chance to prove to the league that it was not a mistake to draft him. All he’ll need is 15 or so carries against Jacksonville to make him worth starting in your flex.


Ladell Betts (NO RB) vs. ARZ 3
Pierre Thomas looks unlikely to play. That leaves Betts as the main guy with Chris Ivory stealing short yardage and goalline work. Betts looked competent last week, and should be fine in this easy matchup. Lance Moore and Jeremy Shockey are picking up a lot of Reggie Bush’s slack, but Betts will also continue to see a good amount of targets.


Ryan Mathews (SD RB) vs. OAK 2
Don’t stress about Mike Tolbert. Tolbert is an effective bowling ball of a runner, and he’s not going away, but Coach Turner wants Mathews to be “the guy.” I look for Mathews to get 2/3 of the carries against Oakland’s generous run defense.


Ryan Torain (WAS RB) vs. GB 27
This is a tough matchup, but Torain is a featured back. Torain impressed me last week against Philly and in the midst of bye weeks, anybody not in a committee becomes quite valuable. 20 carries for 75 yards and a TD is not too much to ask.


WR

Pierre Garcon (IND WR) vs. KC 17
Garcon makes for a risky bet, but I want him to be on your radar this weekend. Austin Collie is looking unlikely to play and Garcon is now recovered. When they’re both healthy, it seems clear that Collie has earned a monster’s share of targets, but for this weekend, Garcon could be a sneaky WR3 to plug in. The matchup is average, but the Colts may want to shove it down KC’s throat to make up for their embarrassing loss last week.


Kenny Britt (TEN WR) vs. DAL 18
Like Garcon, Britt is only relevant now because of an injury. Justin Gage has been ruled out, so Britt should see the most targets of any Titan on Sunday. Most think Britt is the most talented receiver on the roster.


TE

Jeremy Shockey (NO TE) vs. ARZ 3
Shockey is picking up some of Reggie Bush’s would-be targets and is all of the sudden fantasy-relevant. He’s put together two solid games, and looks to make it three in this easy matchup.


Marcedes Lewis (JAC TE) vs. BUF 2
Lewis is one of David Garrard’s best red-zone targets. I’m starting him in two leagues because of byes and this nice matchup.


Brent Celek (PHI TE) vs. SF 17
The man-love between Kevin Kolb and Celek is well-documented. Celek had over 100 yards and a TD in each of Kolb’s two starts last season. I’m not asking for 16 points again, but Celek should see plenty of targets, especially redzone targets, while Kolb is captaining this team.




NOT


QB


Josh Freeman vs. CIN 27
Freeman is making a name for himself by stringing together some solid performance, but this just isn’t the right matchup.


RB


Marion Barber (DAL RB) vs. TEN 23
Barber was not lighting the world on fire in his first three starts, and now the staff says they are making a concerted effort to get Felix Jones the ball more. With less carries and a tough matchup, bench Barber if you have any other options.


Shonn Greene (NYJ RB) vs. MIN 26
After we predicted his big game last week, we’re telling you to sit him this week. He could get the majority of carries, but L.T. will do more with his carries. Against the Williams wall, I don’t expect big things from Greene.


WR

Johnny Knox and Devin Hester (CHI WRs) vs. CAR 15
Just when my boy Knox was finally looking like the breakout player I’ve been waiting for, Jay Cutler has to go and get himself concussed. 38-year-old Todd Collins will start for the Bears, so you want no part in this passing game. Cutler has been practicing this week though so he will be fine next week; the league is just being extra cautious about concussions these days.


Mike Sims-Walker (JAC WR) vs. BUF 13
You shouldn’t drop MSW yet, just in case he and Garrard get some chemistry back. But MSW belongs on benches until further notice.


Jeremy Maclin (PHI WR) vs. SF 14
Substituting Kolb for Vick is bad news for Maclin and DeSean Jackson, but I can’t really recommend benching Jackson. Maclin was one of Vick’s favorite redzone targets. Without the TDs though, Maclin’s production has not been fantastic.


Malcolm Floyd (SD WR) vs. OAK 28
It might be hard to bench Floyd because he’s playing so well, but if you can afford to do so, now’s the week to bench him. He’ll see a heavy dose of Nnamde Asoumugha in coverage. More importantly, the Chargers will have so much success running the ball that Rivers won’t need to go deep to Floyd too often.


Michael Crabtree (SF WR) vs. PHI 29
The new offensive coordinator was supposed to focus on getting Crabtree the ball more. That kind of happened in week 4, and Crabtree had his best game of the season. But 58 yards isn’t enough to belong in your starting roster. If you have no options, of course plug Crabtree into your flex. But in this tough matchtup, I’m benching Crabtree until he has a “breakout game.” Sure, he’ll be on my bench for that first big game, but that’s the price I pay to keep all the crappy games off my starting roster.


TE


Greg Olsen (CHI TE) vs. CAR 22
He’s been putting together some good games, but you don’t know what to expect from Todd Collins.


Owen Daniels (HOU TE) vs. NYG 25
The Texans have made it clear that they don’t need Owen Daniels. Even with Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones out last week, it was Joel Dreessen who picked up the slack, not Daniels as some had hoped.