Hot or Not - Week 4 (Start Bruce Gradkowski over Joe Flacco)

HOT

QBs


Michael Vick (PHI QB)
This is the last time I’ll mention Vick in the Hot or Not, which is reserved for players on the fringe. Vick is no longer on the fringe; he’s an every-week start.


Bruce Gradkowski (OAK QB)
Gradkowski has a completion percentage of just 50%, and has had 1 TD and 1 Interception in both of his games. But he’s getting comfortable exploiting his weapons: the long ball to Louis Murphy, the over the middle pass to Zach Miller, and the dump-off to Darren McFadden. Best of all, Houston gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Houston secondary provided Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Tony Romo with their best games so far this season. The health of Louis Murphy is critical to Gradkowski’s success, and it looks like Murphy will start on Sunday, but check back to confirm that Sunday morning.



Matt Ryan (ATL QB)
Ryan is off to a solid start and this week, gets the surprisingly weak San Fran defense. SF is the 6th easiest matchup for QBs. Ryan toasted the Niners in their meeting last year, when Roddy White exploded for 210 yards and 2 TDs. Start Ryan with confidence.


Chad Henne (MIA QB)
The Henne-Marshall connection looked unstoppable last week. This week, they’ll face New England’s generous secondary. New England has given up the 5th most fantasy points to QBs, and that was against Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, and Ryan Fitzpatrick – not an elite QB in the bunch. Brandon Marshall will pose a huge matchup problem for New England. Miami is built to run, and Miami doesn’t want to get into a shootout against Tom Brady, but that may be inevitable. I expect another solid outing from Henne on Monday Night Football.


RBs


Ryan Mathews (SD RB)
Mathews has been terribly disappointing so far. But all indications point to Mathews starting this game at close to 100%. Arizona has been the 4th most generous opponent in terms of fantasy points, and has given up the 2nd most rushing yards in the league. Mike Tolbert will steal some goalline carries, but I expect San Diego to win and mix in a heavy dose of Tolbert and Mathews in the 4th quarter to close it out.


Joseph Addai (IND RB)
Addai is averaging just 55 rush yards per game, and has zero TDs. But Jacksonville is an easy matchup and it looks like Donald Brown will probably be inactive in this game. Give Addai 15-20 carries against Jacksonville and he’ll give you a solid fantasy day.
[Update: Addai was added to the injury report as questionable. Check on Sunday for inactives because Mike Hart could get the start.]


LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene (NYJ RBs)
All offseason, Greene was touted as the Jets workhorse RB, but this LaDainian kid with the hard-to-pronounce name came out of nowhere and could have a bright future in the NFL! Kidding aside, I think L.T. starts the game and will be more productive with his carries, as he has been all season (5.6 yards-per-carry to 3.5). But I think the Jets are still committed to making Greene their guy in the longrun, especially because they know it’s doubtful that L.T. can keep this up all season at his age. So I expect a heavy dose of Greene, maybe more toward the end of the game. It’s hard to imagine both backs in a 50-50 timeshare being startable, but against Buffalo, you better believe it. Start both backs.


WRs


Johnny Knox (CHI WR)
For a “deep threat,” it’s disappointing that Knox has no TDs on the year and no 100-yard games. However, he leads the Bears receivers in targets, catches, and yards. In a Mike Martz offense, I think I’m close to declaring Knox an every-week start. The Bears are gelling and are the only undefeated team in the NFC. They take on the Giants on Sunday night – not an easy matchup, just an average matchup. I think it’s time for Knox’s first 100-yarder and/or TD!


Louis Murphy (OAK WR)
Murphy has put together 2 very solid outings in a row with Gradkowski at the helm, and if healthy, I anticipate a 3rd against Houston. Houston’s secondary is the 2nd most generous to WRs and you know Oakland will be passing to stay in this game against Matt Schaub.

TEs

There’s not much to say about these Tight Ends except that all 3 are coming off huge week 3s, they each have great matchups, and in this bye-week, I’m itching to get any one of them in my starting line-up.

Zach Miller (OAK TE) vs. HOU (2nd most generous to TEs)
Dustin Keller (NYJ TE) vs. BUF (3rd most generous to TEs)
Aaron Hernandez (NE TE) vs. MIA (4th most generous to TEs)


NOT

QBs


Joe Flacco (BAL QB) and Kyle Orton (DEN QB)
I’ve grouped them together because they’re situations are so similar. Both guys have plenty of weapons and are coming off huge week 3 performances. I think they could both be top 10 options going forward and should be started in almost every matchup, even subpar ones. But the Pittsburgh and Tennessee secondaries are below subpar matchups; they’re scary. If you have any other options, save Flacco and Orton for another week.


RBs


All Bills RBs
If I had to start one, it would have to be Marshawn Lynch. Most analysts predict a trade (quite possibly to the Packers) within the next 2 weeks, but for now, Lynch is leading the backfield in carries. But at the same time, Coach Gailey has said he wants to get Spiller the ball more. And we can’t forget about how much the staff loves Fred Jackson, even if he doesn’t yet have the carries to prove it. I think all 3 backs are very talented, but you want no part of a 3-headed monster against the toughest Run D in the league, the Jets.


Clinton Portis (WAS RB)
Portis has been dominating carries and has an easy matchup against Philly’s 3rd most generous Run Defense. I would still have to bench him however, because it’s looking more and more like Portis has been relegated to the 3rd down role. Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams will likely combine for more carries than Portis going forward. It’s hard to guess Coach Shanahan’s gameplan here – he may be trying to keep Portis fresh to last the whole season, he may be phasing Portis out because of Portis’ ineffectiveness, or he may really believe that Portis is a better fit for a 3rd down role. Either way, I’m scared to start Portis in any matchup for now.


WRs


Steve Smith (CAR WR)
I touted Smith in the “Buy-Low Trade Targets” list because he’s so talented and rookie QB Jimmy Clausen can only get better. So why is Smith now in my Sit list? Clausen will improve, but he hasn’t improved yet. More importantly, this matchup against the Saints’ 31st ranked secondary is a nightmare for Clausen and Smith. Smith will see plenty of Jabari Greer in this game. I expect to Smith to lead the team in targets because getting Smith the ball was the coach’s focus this week in practice, but I don’t expect Smith to do a whole lot with those targets.


Hines Ward (PIT WR)
Charlie Batch looked surprisingly good in week 3, which should mean good things for Hines Ward. But the Steelers face the Ravens who are the worst matchup for opposing WRs. Mike Wallace looked so good last week that it’s hard to take him out of your line-up, but if you have any better options, you have to bench these Steeler receivers. The good news is next week they’re on a bye and then Big Ben returns!


TEs


Todd Heap (BAL TE) and Marcedes Lewis (JAC TE)
Both guys have shown some spark this season, but are not elite or consistent players. More importantly, Heap faces Pittsburgh’s 29th ranked defense against TEs and Lewis faces Indianapolis’ 32nd ranked defense against TEs.


Brent Celek (PHI TE)
Celek had 2 catches in week 1, 3 catches in week 2, and 4 catches in week 3. If my mathematical calculations are correct, that means Celek should have 5 catches in week 4. I’m not sure if that’s how it works though. The matchup is average, but it’s becoming clear that Celek is just not a huge part of this passing game under Vick. Yes, Alge Crumpler was the leading receiver when Vick was in Atlanta, but this is a whole new system for Vick. Vick likes to go deep or run it. Rather than checking it down to Celek for 6 yards, he’d rather run it for 6 yards. I do expect Celek to improve so I will not drop him, but until he does improve, he’s riding my bench.