Monday, October 25, 2010

Game Recaps - Week 7

This was a week of unexpecteds. There were a number of outcomes and individual performances that are still leaving us scratching our heads. But I guess that unpredictability is what makes this sport (and fantasy football) so fun.

Bengals (32) v. Falcons (39)

What better place to start than in Atlanta where Carson Palmer took the fork out and proclaimed that, contrary to what FF MVP has been saying for weeks, he is not done. Tossing 400+ yards, 3 TDs without a single INT was a remarkable day for the fading superstar. I'm still not really buying. The Bengals were trailing big-time at the half. Palmer came out gunning. While fantasy owners tend to like QBs on competent teams that are prone to trail, this profile is also apt to produce high standard deviations in outcomes. I would not be surprised if Palmer throws 3 interceptions if he replayed this game. The only QB who threw more passes than Palmer this week was Brees – and we all saw how erratic that game ended for him. The point is don't trust Palmer unless you are willing to play with fire.


On the Atlanta side of the ball, it was nice to see Turner perform like the top 5 pick he was advertised to be. While the 2 TDs were nice, I'm more excited about the 5.3 YPC. (He's been stuck under 4.0 for four games this season.) But Turner's effort was overshadowed by Roddy White's explosive game. White's 201 yards are for real. His long was 46 yards – meaning that this was no fluke. However, I am getting concerned about Tony Gonzalez who has broken 41 yards only once this season. His 27 yards were pedestrian. But his 4 targets are downright scaring me. If I owned Tony G., I might start taking fliers on Donald Lee or Marcedes Lewis, to the extent they're still available.

Redskins (17) v. Bears (14)

Ryan Torain is legit. We're sheepish over here at FF MVP that we pumped up the wrong Portis-backup. But we were right that whomever it was would thrive. Torain crossed the century mark for the second consecutive straight game. I'm concerned about his two fumbles but Keiland Williams carried the ball once today. He doesn't look like he's taking any of Torain's carries. It's a rarity finding a true "workhorse" RB that carries the full load – so drop this guy into your RB2 slot and take it to the house.

It's a little stressful to have any Bears players on your fantasy team this season. Cutler is all over the place. The wideouts are unpredictable. Yes, Johnny Knox had a great game – but he only caught half of his 12 targets. Still, this is his highest number of receptions on the season which is encouraging. Meanwhile, Matt Forte quietly put together a respectable game despite his team's sloppy effort. The beauty of having a good pass-catching RB on a losing team in a Mike Martz offense is that despite his 10 carries for 41 yards Forte nearly doubled his rushing yard total in the passing game. Plus, however you score receptions, his 5 catches likely helped. Nobody's happy with 7.3 points from an RB drafted to be a stud – but his involvement in the passing game gives you a nice insurance policy against a complete dud of a game. Think of Kevin Jones circa 2006.

Eagles (19) v. Titans (37)

Chris Johnson is superhuman but he carried the ball 24 times for a mediocre 66 yards. The big note here is that the Eagles' run D is legit. Nothing is wrong with CJ2K. Turner went 15 for 45 last week and Gore went 18 for 52 the week before. When all else is equal, downgrade RBs facing Philly. Meanwhile, Kenny Britt carried the offense reeling in 225 yards and a whopping 3 TDs. This is Britt's 5th straight game with a TD. You can't argue with those numbers. But his yardage totals are all over the place. But while Kerry Collins is under center, the Tennessee offense is a different animal. You can't get away with not starting Britt next week – but keep a close eye on the QB sitch.

Meanwhile, Kevin Kolb didn't do much to solidify his lead as the Eagles' QB. 1 TD and 2 interceptions just won't cut it with Michael Vick in the wings. Maclin did not give us a sequel to last week's explosive output. But this is not due to a lack of opportunities. Maclin had the most targets in the game but barely caught more than one-third of them. If DeSean Jackson starts, don't trust Maclin. LeSean McCoy continued his best Brian Westbrook impression by cracking the century mark for all-purpose yardage due to his second most productive game in the passing game this season. We still love McCoy and feel like he's a safe bet to consistently score double-digit fantasy points.

Jaguars (20) v. Chiefs (42)

Todd Bouman was a bit of a surprise start for the Jags – and his two touchdowns were encouraging. I am not rushing to pick him up – but the Jags definitely have weapons. Keep an eye on Bouman. The biggest beneficiary of the move to Bouman is MJD. Two weeks ago, FF MVP warned you about the consensus #3 pick's failure to collect 20 yards in receiving yards all season. Last week, he promptly went ahead and collected his second lowest total of receiving yards on the season. This week with Bouman under center, Jones-Drew exploded with 74 receiving yards. We're stoked to see MJD looking more like the stud RB he was last year. Bouman could be the key. The other beneficiary could be Marcedes Lewis. His 44 yards weren't amazing. But he was Bouman's most favorite target with 9 looks. Something could give here.

Jamaal Charles has essentially put out the same numbers for a third straight game. On the season, Charles has had between 11 and 16 carries every single game. Meanwhile, TJ stole the show collecting 125 yards and a touchdown. He has now out-carried Charles in 4 of the team's 6 games. Still, subtracting Jones' long of 70 yards leaves him with a 2.9 YPC on the day. In other words, I am not banking on triple-digit rushing totals this season. Meanwhile, Bowe put up two touchdowns again and could do similar quantities of damage next week against the Bills. I'm starting him as a WR2.

Steelers (23) v. Dolphins (22)

The Steelers might be the best team in football. But they also were saved by a boggled call on a Big Ben fumble late in the game. Upgrade Roethlisberger to elite status once again – 300yds/2tds can't be disputed. His chemistry with Ward might take a little away from Mike Wallace's numbers. Wallace had a TD and racked up studly yardage last week. But he has a combined 5 catches during the Big Ben age. Ward caught 7 today from his 10 targets. Meanwhile, where was Mendenhall? Tight games are supposed to spell success for Pittsburgh running backs. But Mendenhall went ahead and had his worst game all season. Go figure. I don't think there's anything wrong going forward – but note that there was some talk that the Steelers would decrease his workload this week.

The Fins had very little going for them this week from a fantasy perspective. Bess had a score but the yardage numbers were pedestrian all around. If you started Dan Carpenter, you should feel sheepish about those 16 points. But, heck, I'm saying that mainly because I'm pissed that I went against him. The carries were split 55-45 but neither horse got anything going. One of these guys is going to get injured soon.

Browns (30) v. Saints (17)

Uhh… Really? The Browns pick up their second victory of the season and it's against the reigning Super Bowl champs? The Browns didn't do anything fantastic. Two of their TDs were attributable to David Bowens opportunistically taking advantage of Drew Brees interceptions. No receiver caught more than 25 yards and Hillis' game was unremarkable.

Meanwhile, Brees showed more of his humanness this week throwing the most passes on the week while tossing four interceptions. He still racked up serious yardage and found the endzone twice. From a real football perspective, he was mediocre. But from a fantasy points perspective, Brees still put up some numbers. Colston broke out today for his best game of the season. Curiously, Colston's best games this season have come during losing efforts (see also Week 5). New Orleans' struggles spell Colston successes. Chris Ivory got the same number of carries as he did during last week's breakout – but his 3.2 YPC left owners frustrated. There are better options than Ivory against the Steel Curtain next weekend.


Rams (17) v. Bucs (18)

Though Sam Bradford is making a case at running away with Rookie of the Year honors, you probably aren't starting him unless your league is very deep. Still, his 126 yards were his lowest all season. But when SJax is clicking Rams fans can forgive the decreased production from their rookie QB. But fantasy owners cannot. Two TDs are encouraging but his second straight game without an interception should be what really gives Bradford owners hope. Nonetheless, the absence of Mark Clayton is hurting Bradford's yardage totals. Start the hell out of Jackson – but that's a no-brainer.

Pick up LeGarrette Blount asap in medium-to-deep leagues. He was the "number two" but he had nearly three times as many carries as nominal starter, Cadillac Williams.

5 comments:

McTwo said...

No raiders game coverage? Franchise record!

Vincent said...

Is dmc going to be the starter now after shredding the broncos or will it still be an even split?

The Champ said...

What's your recommendation with driver, his output has dropped so significantly but he's also capable of great games?

Anonymous said...

I couldn't disagree with this article more.

Love,
Patrick

Anonymous said...

I dropped Gonzalez after week 2... vindication! And then I lost Finley, but grabbed Hernandez. Rollercoaster. Keep getting trade offers for White and I'm not listening...

Everyone here at FFMVP knows Torain is legit, but I offered him and Orton for Gore and got turned down for quote 'the waiver wire RB.' I was so insulted! Proceeded to beat that owner the next week with Torain in my lineup! Waiver wire RB my ass... His lead blocker got banged up this week though...

Injuries forced me to drop Cutler and I suddenly don't feel so bad after this game... Traded away Forte as well... just in time. Reports say he is going to lose goal line carries.

Chiefs DST won me a matchup by 1.5 points. Who said Jacksonville isn't winning anyone any games in fantasy?? :) Charles is the favorite RB of the well respected website ProFootballFocus, which grades players' every play. The fact they keep feeding Jones is a crime. And they only went with two active WRs (one being McCluster) on Sunday. This team is a head-scratcher.

PacMan Jones goes to IR and Joseph is still banged up... START BESS THIS WEEK if he is out again.

Awesome job by the Browns! Too bad I started Hillis in a league without fractional points (13 yards passing)... Still won though; he is a beast! And to think, I was forlorn when I picked him up as a consolation prize the week we all went for BJax. Add Hillis to the growing list of Broncos cast offs who are having success elsewhere. Hillis, Smith, Marshall, Scheffler, Stokley, and whoever is getting drafted with the pick they sent for Maroney. McDaniels is retarded.

Someone offered me SJax twice but I can't trade for him as long as he struggles to find the end zone with that mediocre offense...

Blount is risky, but I wish I had a spot for him...

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