Running behind that Offensive Line, both Jets RBs can produce. Tomlinson carried the ball 19 times for 133 yards and 2 TDs, while Greene carried the ball 22 times for 117 yards. I expect this kind of split to continue. Both backs should be starting on fantasy teams. And in easy matchups, they approach low end RB1 status. It will be interesting to see how the targets shake out between Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Santonio Holmes when Holmes returns next week. I think Holmes is the most talented WR and will immediately lead all Jets WRs in production.
Again, you cannot count on a single Bills player to produce. The passing game is just bad, and the three RBs are cannibalizing each other's production.
Cincinnati (20) vs. Cleveland (23)
Oh my goodness, Terrell Owens! 15 targets, 10 catches, 1 TD, and 222 yards! We touted T.O. as the better draft-day value of the Batman and Robin duo, and hopefully you started him today if you own him (I started him in some and benched him in others; it hurts to see those 30 points on the bench.) If the Ochocinco-owner in your league is worried that he's taking a backseat, buy-low on Ocho.
Peyton Hillis is a workhorse solid RB2 bordering on RB1 status. Jerome Harrison is a non-factor with zero touches. (We have to bite the big one on Harrison; that is one player we just completely missed on in the pre-season.) You want no part of Cleveland's passing game.
Detroit (26) vs. Green Bay (28)
This is why you drafted Calvin Johnson. It's an overused term, but Johnson is a freakish athlete. He makes Shaun Hill an interesting prospect until Stafford returns. Jahvid Best came back to Earth, probably as a result of his toe injury. But he will likely be a little dinged up throughout the season, so I expect him to be a solid RB2, but not the RB1 many hoped he would be after an explosive week 2 performance.
Brandon Jackson is a colossal disappointment. He split carries evenly with John Kuhn again and couldn't even manage 4 yards-per-carry against Detroit. I hesitate to call it a "mistake" to spend your free agent budget or use your high waiver priority on Jackson though. It was the right move at the time, but it clearly has not worked out at all. Was it a mistake to spend an early draft pick on Tom Brady in 2008 because he got injured in the first game and missed the year? No. It was the right move, but did not work out. So if a situation mirrors BJax's next year, I'll do the same thing. If Adrian Peterson is placed on injured reserve after week 1, and Coach Childress expresses full confidence in Toby Gerhart as his new workhorse, I will spend my free agent budget on him too. Anyway, in 10 team leagues, you can now consider dropping Jackson.
Denver (26) vs. Tennessee (20)
Even in a tough matchup, Kyle Orton looked incredible. He is a legit top 10 QB. Those 4 WRs are such a headache. This week, Lloyd led the pack with 11 catches for 115 yards on 18 targets. Most analysts, including the FFMVP crew, thought Demaryius Thomas would be the most successful receiver after week 2, but now he looks like the least valuable. He had 1 catch for 9 yards on 4 targets. They have no running game and don't use the TE, so you can expect Orton and his 4 rotating WRs to produce every week.
Baltimore (17) vs. Pittsburgh (14)
I received many comments, texts, and e-mails that read, "Where the hell is Ray Rice?" I wondered the same thing. All week long, the beat writers and coaches said that Rice is fine and that he would resume feature back duties. Instead, McGahee started and would have played the entire game if not for his own injury, which allowed Rice to get a few last minute carries. If you didn't buy low on Rice last week, now you can buy even lower on him this week. Rice's value has clearly fallen since draftday, but Rice should be back to 20 carries per game next week.
Jacksonville (31) vs. Indianapolis (28)
Welcome back, Mr. Jones-Drew! MJD and Joe Addai both got their first TDs of the season today, and made it 2 each for good measure.
Mike Sims-Walker is extremely frustrating. He has provided 0, 17, 3, and 0 fantasy points. He is too inconsistent to be in your starting line-up. MSW had just 1 target.
Washington (17) vs. Philadelphia (12)
Ryan Torain is a must-add if he's available in your league. The Skins cut Keiland Williams and Portis left with a groin injury. Even if Portis returns, it looks like he'll split carries with Torain, and Torain could soon push a healthy Portis for the starting job. I don't know what happened to Santana Moss who recorded zero catches on 1 target after looking awesome through 3 weeks. Chris Cooley is looking elite, especially considering that his 5 targets were the most of any Redskin.
Mike Vick's injury is a very tough blow for Vick, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin. All three were on fire in Septmeber. But when Kolb took over, their targets and receptions disappeared. Vick's injury doesn't look too serious yet, but if Kolb starts, it's only good news for Brent Celek who had his best game of the year today with Kolb.
11 comments:
Vick's hit was disgusting. Reminded me why I decided to forgo pro football.
Do you see Michael Bush as a potential RB2 going forward? Seemed like he was slowly being integrated back into the game today, and McFadden is looking a little beat up
"I hesitate to call it a "mistake" to spend your free agent budget or use your high waiver priority on Jackson though."
I hate to break it to you, but it was a mistake. I'll admit, I almost made that mistake. But you have to ask yourself, if BJax is a better pass blocker and pass catcher than Grant, why isn't he starting over him? Because he's a terrible runner. My consolation prize for missing out on the BJax waiver claim? Peyton Hillis. Thank God, I almost fell for the hype... Sometimes you gotta beware of the Kool Aid.
In a similar fashion, if Jerome Harrison was so great, why didn't they name him the unconditional starter in the off-season? Why was there so much talk about Davis possibly taking over the job? Because he's just not that good.
Kool Aid... be careful.
Have no fear man
My name's beer man
Micheal Bush makes me jeer, man
deadfrog, i got jackson AND hillis in one league and am very happy about that. looks like you got the btter rb for sure. yeah jackson sucks but i still picked him up. i didn't think he would be BETTER than grant, but it's not often that you get such a definitive situation. grant was out permanently and the coach's clearly said "jackson is our guy." usually when waivers come around, you don't know how long the starter will be out, and you don't know who's splitting carries of if the team will bring in someone else. so in jackson's case, i thought it was smart at the time.
It's like - you do all your resaerch and think "ok, kolb and flacco are both great sleeper qbs cuz they have all these great receivers, but they're flying under the radar in drafts." well, flacco is working out, and kolb is not. you make an educated move, but sometimes, shit happens.
Rassberry, you just proved my point. Flacco was a proven talent, Kolb is not.
BJax has a track record with GB which says he's not an effective runner. You'd be better off with a higher upside runner like Hillis, Torain, etc. We got duped by the hype.
Here's a lesson we can learn from this year:
Mathews gets hurt, Tolbert is the guy, "RUN OUT AND GET HIM!", he has 5+ yards per carry in 2009 = effective fantasy player in 2010 as a waiver add.
Thomas gets hurt, Ivory is the guy, "RUN OUT AND GET HIM!", he has no track record whatsoever = split carries with Betts and made 4 fantasy points in week 4.
Kool Aid.
So if, say, CJ, Turner, Wells, or Barber go down, run out and get their proven backups. But if, say, Mendenhall, Gore, or Peterson go down, temper your expectations for their unproven backups.
it seems as though we have an impostor running loose around this blog...
brett -- who is the best free agent D going into this weeks matchups?
But if BJax went off I'd feel like an idiot for tempering my expectations and waiting...
Remember Grant's breakout season? He came in in a Monday night game against the Broncos and looked good as an unproven back with no track record. Grant then went on to be the second most prevalent player on fantasy football championship teams, meaning...grabbing the Green Bay untested and unproven backup running back won most people their leagues three years ago...it's not "kool-aid" to think it COULD happen again
Is it time to cut Vincent Jackson without any hesitation?
I can't speak for Brett, but I'd vote for Cincinnati DST at home against TB (especially if both their corners are healthy) or Chicago DST on the road against Carolina. Both are a bit shaky though. TB is coming off a bye and Chicago might not have a QB.
I am a die hard Chargers fan and follow the team closely. Let VJax loose unless you are in a 16 team league. He's not going anywhere. I think Atlanta is stupid for not making an offer for him. Tell me who is a legitimate wideout behind Roddy White? Douglas is a slot guy and VJax is a beast of a run blocker.
Pack Attack, you're still reinforcing my point. Grant was plucked off the Giants practice squad and there was obviously something the team liked about him. He had no record to suggest he was a bust or anything. BJax has filled in for Grant before and was underwhelming. Tolbert has always played well. If Ivory was so good he would have been on the 53 man final roster. He has some promise, but it will take a while. BJ Ellis is similar to BJax in that he has filled in before and didn't exactly put a stranglehold on the starting job. I don't like his long term upside this season. I completely understand though, that good RBs are hard to find and you have to jump on what you can get. I'm just saying be careful who you drop for these guys. In 2008 one of my league mates dropped DeAngelo Williams. I picked him up but later dropped him for Rhodes (as I recall), who filled in very nicely. But the upside of Williams bit me in the ass...
I agree that you can drop Vincent Jackson. I also agree that Chicago or Cincinnati are solid defense plays this week if they're available in your league.
The backup RB discussion has been interesting and thoughtful. I agree that a lot of it turns on who you would have to drop to pickup the flavor of the week. It also depends on your short-term and long-term needs. If you're stacked at RB, a one-week replacement like Ken Darby has little value (most were surprised when Steven Jackson played yesterday, but Darby at least got you 9 points). But if you're dealing with injuries and byes and just needed a few points at your RB2 spot in week 4, Darby was a great addition. And now you can thank him for his service and cut him loose. But if you're looking for more longterm RB help, it's nice to have a featured back for 1 week, but you're more interested in someone who could get into a committee and push to be the starter in the longrun, like Torain, Blount, or Huggins.
Hey Brett,
Love the website. I've seen a lot of them and you seem to have a real grasp of what's going on. You're better than 90% of these other guys. Nah, make that 99%. It seems like you, ProFootballFocus and maybe Dave Richard of CBS are the only ones who aren't completely insane.
On the subject of waiver adds, I almost dropped Clayton for Demaryious Thomas in one of my leagues that has 5 bench spots. My other league has 6 and therefore has much less pressure to make such choices. I think I'll favor this type of league going forward...
Do you guys play in draft or auction leagues? I never tried auction leagues till this year and I think it is much better. I can actually get the players I target; all I have to do is pay for them.
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