Game Previews: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid

A look at the matchups to avoid and exploit this weekend…

Miami at Green Bay

For Chad Henne and the Miami Dolphins, the week 5 bye could not have come at a better time. Following a miserable Monday night performance against the New England Patriots, look for the Dolphins to rebound and play smarter football. Coach Sparano plans to drop back to pass less frequently and revert back to a smashmouth approach. Henne remains a viable bye-week option or QB2, but the Dolphins do not want to try and force the ball through the air following Henne’s 3 pick performance on Monday night. Downgrade Davone Bess and temper your expectations of Brandon Marshall as he will be facing off against all-pro Charles Woodson (though the Packer’s defense is significantly banged up and has surrendered several big plays this season). On the other hand, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are slated to see an increase in carries and more wildcat formations to keep the Pack Attack on their toes. Brown should be started as an RB2 and Ricky Williams makes for a sneaky flex play this weekend.

As for the Packers, the preseason darlings have sustained significant injuries. Aaron Rodgers sustained a concussion last weekend and could miss week 6 meaning Matt Flynn would get the start. Despite the weapons surrounding him, Matt Flynn should not be anywhere near your starting lineups. The absence of Aaron Rodgers will have a detrimental effect on the whole offense as well. The struggling Greg Jennings has yet to emerge as a top tier WR1 and is not likely to live up to his potential with Flynn in as signal caller. Donald Driver may become an outlet receiver for Flynn as the sure-handed, short route-runner. With Jermichael Finley out for the season and Donald Lee banged up, Donald Driver is the most attractive receiver in this passing game with Quarless, James Jones and Jordy Nelson likely seeing limited snap counts. As a pass-happy team, the Packers are likely to struggle on offense without Aaron Rodgers, meaning the Miami D can stack up against the already ineffective Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn. Although BJax and Kuhn are likely to see more carries, they have both failed to get it done (especially at the goal line). That being said, BJax is coming off of his best game and could become a friendly outlet to Flynn as the Dolphins D puts the pressure on Flynn allowing BJax to rack up some yardage through the air.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

If you thought things couldn’t get any worse for the Browns, now it looks as though Colt McCoy will make his first start with injuries to Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. Not that we need to remind anyone or make any mind-blowing announcements here, but this should further convince people to avoid the Cleveland passing game altogether. Although Ben Watson has been receiving targets, he will be playing with an inexperienced quarterback against a defense anchored by the silky and voluminous Troy Polamalu. The only Cleveland player who should be near fantasy rosters is Peyton Hillis. Hillis is now the undisputed starter and has been able to get it done in scoring situations. The Steel Wall is not generous against the run but Hillis is all the Browns have on offense. Hillis has also proven to be a reliable pass-catcher and with a shaky quarterback, he could gain some garbage time yardage on underneath passes late in the game.

For the debut everyone has been waiting for, Big Ben is back. With Favre taking some of the heat off of the Roethlisberger scandal, Big Ben can focus on continuing the Steelers’ success. Roeth has apparently looked great in practices and his return will surely bolster the value of Ward and Wallace. Big Ben has a great matchup and could be started as a QB1 this weekend. With a big gun back in at QB, the downfield speed and height of Mike Wallace can finally be utilized. Wallace and Ward should both be in your starting rosters this weekend as low end WR2s with the strong potential to become every week starters. The return of Roethlisberger also means that Heath Miller should receive more catchable passes but he will also be fighting for targets with Ward and Wallace spreading the field more. Miller’s value is bumped up but not nearly as much as Ward’s or Wallace’s. Mendenhall stands to take a hit in touches with Big Ben back, but as defenses can’t stack up against the run, Rashard remains an every week start.

Kansas City at Houston

Kansas City finally lost to the Colts last weekend and balance is restored to the universe. Although the offense struggled to move the ball effectively, Jamaal Charles had a productive outing as he further cements his role ahead of Thomas Jones on the depth chart. Charles doubled Jones’ carries last weekend and did much more than Jones with his touches. Charles is a must start against the pathetic Houston D. Thomas Jones is still a factor in this matchup but temper your expectations, consider him a low-end flex option. Going aerial, the Texans D has provided every quarterback they’ve faced with a stellar performance. If Cassel cannot deliver in this matchup then the Chiefs will need to reevaluate their offensive strategy for the long haul this season. Todd Haley continues to lean on the tight-end blocking scheme and vertical attack meaning that Tony Moeaki is a serviceable TE start this weekend as he has proven to be the most reliable target in the KC passing game. This is also the “start or bench/drop” matchup for Dwayne Bowe. Todd Haley praised Bowe for his blocking and talent after last week’s loss to the Colts and may look to reward Bowe with a breakout game against a weak secondary. There are no other receivers of note in Kansas City as Chambers and McCluster are not involved enough to become fantasy relevant.

Yikes Houston, what happened last weekend? With defensive woes, the Houston offense has struggled but never as pitifully as last weekend. True, the Giants D is for real this season, but Houston must find a more effective way of moving the ball and avoiding 3-and-outs. Arian Foster had by far his worst performance of the season last weekend, proving that he is human. However, Foster should remain in fantasy lineups, even if Foster comes back to earth, Coach Kubiak reiterated that Arian is at no risk of losing his starting job. The dropoff in carries last week was a result of the immediate jump-out lead that the Giants posted and will not be a regular occurrence. Matt Schaub, on the other hand, has continued to struggle and will face a tough matchup against the KC secondary. However, the Texans have worked this week on getting Schaub better pocket protection, Andre the Giant will be back to 100%, meaning Schaub is poised for a rebound. If the Houston offense can get back on track, Owen Daniels may re-enter the realm of fantasy relevancy, but should remain on your bench or waiver wire until he has his breakout game.

Bay Area SuckFest (Oakland at San Francisco)

This three and a half hour blooper reel will be much closer than experts would have guessed last month. Although Campbell was ineffective to start the season, he filled in nicely against San Diego last weekend to break a 13 game losing streak to the Chargers. Gradkowski has been unable to practice this week and Campbell will likely get the start but that does not mean much. The Oakland receiving corps is nothing to write home about and Campbell has had limited playing time to establish chemistry with them this season. Given the circumstances, Zach Miller is the most reliable option in the passing game and should be an every week starter in fantasy rosters. Louis Murphy is a downfield threat but remains too inconsistent especially with a new quarterback, Murphy is a low end WR3 this weekend. With these struggles in the passing game, look for the Raiders to pound the ball on the ground with Michael Bush getting the bulk of the carries. McFadden is recovering from a hamstring injury and will see a limited snap count as Michael Bush’s backup if he is healthy. For the time being, Michael Bush is the RB to own in Oaktown.

The Niners are in do or die mode now. At 0-5, San Fran desperately needs a win and will be facing it’s easiest matchup of the season. While Alex Smith has posted decent fantasy numbers trying to come back late in games, Coach Singletary is losing hope in the former number 1 pick and may look to keep the ball on the ground. The Raiders have not been particularly troublesome for ground attacks and Gore is the definition of a workhorse. Despite any offensive struggles, Gore remains a top 5 RB and will get it done on the ground and in the air this week. Crabtree and Vernon Davis are both coming off their best games of the season but that was in part due to some garbage time contributions and the waning strength of the Philly secondary. Crabtree has a date with Asomugha Sunday afternoon and will struggle to shake one of the game’s best corners. Asomugha will also be covering Vernon Davis depending on down and distance and how the game shakes out, meaning that the success of Davis and Crabtree will be inversely related. Josh Morgan has seen his targets drop significantly and should definitely be dropped in standard-sized leagues.

Dallas at Minnesota

If you told me in August that the Chiefs, Rams, Raiders, and Seahawks would all have more wins than the Vikes and Boys combined after 5 weeks, I would have been forced to remind you that scoring in the NFL is not like golf. These two NFC power houses are both 1-3, and after this weekend one will be 1-4. As the top two contenders for NFC champion, the Vikings and Cowboys are in desperation mode and looking to pull out all the stops in what we dub the “Do-Or-Die” Week 6.

Team struggles aside, Romo is a must start as the Cowboys will go aerial to avoid running at the Williams Wall. The beauty of fantasy football (unfortunate as it may be for Dallas fans) is that Romo can throw three picks but still rack up enough yardage and scores to make for a great fantasy start. With Romo going to the air, the question remains which receivers will be the beneficiaries. Miles Austin is a beast. (PERIOD). Witten will also see a great deal of targets on third downs and is a great receiver and blocker meaning he will be in on every snap. Though the TDs have not always been there for Witten the yardage has been and he remains a top TE. The only big question mark in the passing game is the competition between Dez Bryant and Roy Williams. Despite high expectations of Dez, the veteran Williams is the better start between the two. Williams has been receiving more targets and doing more with his receptions including finding the endzone. Especially now that Dez isn’t playing at 100%, Williams should be started as a low end WR2 and Dez should remain on your bench. Wade Phillips was true to his word last week in upping Felix Jones’ role in the offense. Look for Felix to remain the primary back with Barber a mere change of pace and goalline opportunist. Although Minnesota is known as a vaunted run-D, they surrendered big plays to Shonn Greene and LT2 on Monday night, Felix Jones is a solid flex/low end RB2, Barber remains a bench-rider and could even be dropped in shallow leagues, if there are solid options to add.

For the Vikings, AP is an excellent play against this Cowboys defense that has given up big yardage on the ground. All-Day has also emerged as a pass-catcher and reliable outlet for Old-Man Favre. Like Romo, Favre also is a viable QB option in fantasy leagues because he will look to sling the ball regardless of what turnovers result (see Monday Night Football). Despite elbow soreness and a whirlwind of media controversy, Favre will likely look to keep his streak active and make the start (but check back Sunday to make sure he is active because his absence would spell trouble for all Vikings WRs). Favre will continue to utilize his new BFF Randy Moss who should rack up some big plays particularly in the red-zone. Percy Harvin is also developing nicely into the speedy underneath receiver as Moss pulls coverage downfield. Look for both receivers to excel in what is likely to be the highest scoring affair of the weekend. As for the man with the funny name, Visanthe Shiancoe has seen his production drop off dramatically as Favre’s accuracy has become an issue and the addition of Randy Moss has pulled downfield targets from the tall TE. If there are better options on the waiver wire (which we would guess there are) add them because Shiancoe is not a safe start.

Indianapolis at Washington

Whoever this Peyton Manning guy is, it looks like he finally has returned to reality after a scoreless performance last weekend against the Chiefs. The Colts will face another tough matchup this weekend against an underrated Washington secondary. That being said, Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning. Peyton should excel this weekend in what looks to be a higher scoring affair than last weekend’s field goal clinic. Reggie Wayne remains one of the most consistent WRs in the NFL and will continue to produce regardless of who he matches up against. Collie and Garcon could be a different story. Garcon received more targets last weekend but had a low catch per target ratio. Both Collie and Garcon are listed as questionable for this weekend, but it looks like Garcon is the receiver to start this weekend. Collie only came in on 3-receiver sets last weekend and if he remains less than 100% this weekend, he could see his starting job altogether lost to Garcon. Wayne is a definite WR1, Garcon is a WR2, and if healthy Collie is a low end WR2 or WR3. As for Dallas Clark, there just weren’t enough passing attempts to deliver the ball to all four receivers last weekend. Look for Clark to rebound and continue to post top 3 TE fantasy lines going forward, start him with confidence. The Indy ground attack is a little more at risk. Addai was pulled early last week with a shoulder injury and has been limited in practice. Donald Brown is doubtful to play this weekend and Mike Hart is far from the solution. If healthy, Addai should be started this weekend but monitor his status during the week.

The Chunky Soup spokesman has still got it. McNabb has been extremely effective moving the ball and has brought Santana Moss back to fantasy relevancy. The Colts’ secondary is missing Sanders and Bullit and will provide a solid matchup for McNabb. Santana Moss is a must start and Chris Cooley should also see enough targets to earn him a spot in your starting roster. With Devin Thomas cut, Armstrong looks to be the beneficiary and posted great numbers last weekend, but he should remain in the corner of your eye and not on your bench, let alone your starting roster. With Portis out, Ryan Torain posted serviceable numbers against the Packers last weekend. Torrain is THE back in Washington and will have an excellent matchup against the struggling Colts. Start Torain with confidence and be happy that you were the first to add this waiver wire stud.