Game Previews: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid

Jacksonville at Buffalo
Congratulations MJD owners, it looks like pocket Hercules is back to form and should have another tasty matchup against the Bills struggling at…well everything. However, the Bills do have a deceptively strong secondary and Mike Sims-Walker has not produced efficiently or consistently enough to warrant a start. Marcedes Lewis, on the other hand, poses an interesting play this week if you’re in need of a bye week TE. Lewis is Garrard’s go-to guy in the red zone…provided they get there, and projects to be one of the only serviceable skill position players in the Jacksonville passing game.


And our predictions of the Bills’ backfield are now starting to manifest. With Lynch gone, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be seeing a big upgrade in carries against the defense that surrendered Joseph Addai’s best game last weekend. As the Bills continue to struggle through the air, Spiller and Jackson both look to be viable options in fantasy rosters this weekend. The Coach announced that Jackson is the nominal starter, but it remains to be seen how the Bills plan to handle this now two-headed ground attack. Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish have been ineffective, making rookie David Nelson a player worth keeping your eye on in deep leagues as he led the Bills last week with 75 yards. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Bills last week in rushing yards and added two touchdowns through the air which make him a viable QB2 in deep leagues facing off against a secondary that has been picked on all season.

Atlanta at Cleveland
Don’t underestimate the Browns run D, Ced-Ben and Ray Rice owners got burned the past two weeks expecting big games on the ground against the Browns. Jason Snelling also looks too good to be just a backup to Turner and will surely eat up some of his carries. That being said, we don’t expect Snelling to be a valuable play unless you’re particularly thin at RB, and we of course recommend keeping Turner in your lineup. Matt Ryan should also have a nice matchup against the secondary that made Carson Palmer look like Carson Palmer from 2005, meaning Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should have field days against this Cleveland secondary.

We expect the Falcons to go up early, which would force the Browns to play catch up, but Hillis should still have a solid game as it seems Jerome Harrison is now a non-factor in the Browns backfield and the fantasy world. Start Hillis with confidence. Unfortunately for the Cleveland faithful, the Browns have failed to put together much through the air, meaning no one else on the Browns should be anywhere near your starting roster.

Kansas City (3-0) at Indianapolis (2-2)
The records of these two teams are not our sad attempt at an April Fool’s prank. No, the Chiefs are undefeated in large part due to a revitalized ground attack. Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles are anchoring this offense and allowing the Chiefs to control the clock. Jones is the more experienced back, but Charles has the edge with his explosive speed. Charles and Jones should both be started against a Colts defense that is lacking Bob Sanders and Melvin Bullit. The rest of the KC offense is slightly more suspect. The Chiefs will be facing a high-octane offense meaning Cassel will need to get something going through the air. TE Tony Moeaki remains Cassel’s favorite target, but Dexter McCluster and Dwayne Bowe should see quite a bit of action in this game as the Chiefs look to attack through the air or earn their first loss of the season.

Now for the easy part…Start everyone on the Colts! The Chiefs’ defense has been surprisingly staunch this season, but there is no reason to worry about your big investments in Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie. Pierre Garcon practiced this week and may be eligible to play Sunday, but Peyton has developed too much chemistry with Collie, so Garcon doesn't belong in lineups yet.  The Chiefs have been tough against the run, but Donald Brown missed practice and looks to miss his second consecutive game, meaning Joseph Addai will be the featured back and should be started after his two touchdown performance last week.


Green Bay at Washington
Without Ryan Grant, the Packers philosophy has become even more pass oriented. Unfortunately for Greg Jennings, this means that defenses can dial up the pass rush and force Rodgers to get rid of the ball quickly. However, this means that Jermichael Finley and Donald Driver should continue their success both with red zone targets and yardage. Unless any of these receivers get injured, James Jones and Jordy Nelson are non-factors for fantasy purposes. We also must admit that BJax is not the waiver add of the year as he has failed to get it done against even the Detroitiest and Buffalo-esque defenses. John Kuhn is a great change of pace back, but the Packers simply are not running the ball enough for Kuhn of BJax to be startable.

As for the Skins, Ryan Torain may very well be this season’s biggest waiver wire add. Portis has been demoted to the basement of the Washington backfield and Torain will likely handle 1st down, 3rd down and goal line responsibilities making him a must start. Donovan McNabb could be started, but it is a tough matchup. Although held without a catch last week, Santana Moss remains the number one receiver in Washington and should be set for a rebound week in what looks to be a high scoring affair. McNabb and Cooley have also developed great chemistry and without a reliable dumpoff option, McNabb will look to utilize his big, sure-handed TE.

New York G-Men at Houston
Eeyore Manning is staring down the barrel of his most favorable-matchup of the season. The Texans’ secondary has surrendered huge games for opposing QBs and this should be Eli’s time to shine. That being said, Eli is no Peyton. Bradshaw should have a great performance with Brandon Jacobs being relegated to nothing more than a breather for Bradshaw. Bradshaw was limited in practice Wednesday but claims to be ready to go at 110% this weekend. As far as the receivers, Hakeem Nicks is eclipsing Steve Smith as the number one target in New York. Smith remains a possession receiver, but Nicks led the Giants in targets last week and is the bigger red zone threat. TE Kevin Boss will be used primarily as a pass blocker, so it may be time to cut Boss loose.

The AFC South leading Texans will look to build on their offensive success against an inconsistent New York defense. Be sure to check the injury reports, but it looks like Jacoby Jones and Andre Johnson could both miss playing time or be limited, meaning that Matt Schaub’s value will take a hit. However, Kevin Walter is a veteran who can get it done and Arian Foster has proved that he can get yards after the catch. If Jones and Johnson are out Sunday, Schaub owners should still feel comfortable starting him unless they have another top 8 option at QB. Meanwhile, the MVP of the first month of football, Arian Foster, should absolutely be in your starting lineup. Foster is a power back and has explosive speed to break off big runs. Without Jones or Johnson, Coach Kubiak could lean on his runningback to turn this into the Arian Foster show.

Minnesota at the As Scene on TV New York J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!
This mini-homecoming for Brett Favre just got a whole lot more interesting with the arrival of Randy Moss. After fantasizing about playing with Moss for the better part of his career, Favre will finally get to play geezer ball against a battered Jets secondary. The arrival of Moss will help everyone on the Vikings except for Visanthe Shiancoe. Though it’s a tough matchup, Adrian Peterson is a must start and should benefit from double teams on Randy Moss (especially if Revis is unable to play). Percy Harvin looks to emerge into a Wes Welker roll as the speedy underneath receiver which should significantly bolster his value. Look for Favre to try and force the ball to Moss and make good use of his new-ish toy, which means Favre has the tall receiver he was lacking with all of his air-balls. Sadly, the downfield and red-zone threat posed by Moss means that Shiancoe will no longer be Favre’s most reliable target; downgrade Visanthe.

As for the Jets, we hope you enjoyed our advice to start Shonn Greene last weekend…in fact we hope you enjoyed it so much that you don’t want to start him this weekend. The Williams wall is a formidable opponent to any runningback let alone a struggling Greene. LT2 will get the bulk of the carries and have to make do with limited gains on the ground. Greene and LT2’s best hopes at putting together solid outings will depend on whether or not they can hit pay dirt or run out the clock with the lead, otherwise don’t expect huge yardage production out of either back. On the other hand, this looks like it could be a solid game for Mark Sanchez who has shown promise through his past three games. Dustin Keller is shaping up to be an elite TE particularly with his red zone targets (5 touchdowns through four games). As for the Jets receivers, Santonio Holmes is prepared to make his debut with the Jets this weekend. As we have said, we think Holmes is the best talent in the NY passing game, but it is unclear how the Jets will use Holmes in his first game with the team. With Holmes back, Cotchery will most likely surrender his starting job as Braylon Edwards has been getting open downfield and has scored in the past three games, Edwards is a solid fantasy play this weekend.