Monday, September 13, 2010

Working the Waiver Wire

Let me preface this first edition of Working the Waiver Wire by saying that I don’t know how you add free agents, I don’t know your scoring system, roster size, or your positional needs. So keep that in mind and make your own decisions. But I would prioritize my adds in roughly the following order, maybe with Naanee above Hillis, if you need more WR help than RB help.

1) Brandon Jackson (GB RB)
Jackson (or BJax as no one likes to call him) is the best add of the week. Ryan Grant has already been ruled out for the entire season. Coach McCarthy has said before and after the injury that he’s comfortable with Jackson as the feature back. Jackson makes for a fine start against Buffalo this week. He then gets Chicago in week 3 and Detroit in week 4.

2) Michael Vick (PHI QB)
Kevin Kolb looked mediocre before leaving the game with a concussion. Vick is very likely to start this week in a juicy matchup against Detroit. Vick doesn’t throw beautiful long balls, which is bad news for DeSean Jackson. But Vick was efficient and hit 2/3 of his attempts, and most importantly, added 103 rushing yards. That is a huge boost to his fantasy value. Coach Reid says Kolb will regain the starting job when healthy, but if he plays as badly as he did yesterday, don’t be surprised if Vick comes back again. If you have Kolb or Stafford, Vick is an excellent pickup. This is why we had Kolb lower in our rankings than most sites: people drafted him for his upside but did not factor in his downside. Sure, Kolb could breakout with all those talented young receivers, but he’s an unknown and could just as easily tank.

3) Fred Taylor (NE RB)
Old man Taylor is available in way too many leagues. He is the starting runningback on an elite offense. Yes, it’s only a matter of time before he gets injured, but he’s not injured yet! Taylor gained a respectable 71 yards on 14 carries, and added 6 yards on 2 catches. Add him.

4) Peyton Hillis (CLE RB)
Ughh. Who saw this coming? Coach Mangini talked about Jerome Harrison “seizing the opportunity” to be a feature back after Montario Hardesty landed on Injured Reserve. Harrison and Hillis each had 9 carries, with Harrison having a slight edge in yards, but Hillis got the TD. Hillis is worth a look because he may continue to get half the carries and goalline carries. However, I’m not too excited about having someone with only 50% of the carries on Cleveland. Plus, it’s hard to judge the timeshare by this one game because Delhomme threw 2 picks, and the Browns did not sustain a lot of long drives. They put Hillis in on the goal line after Harrison’s long run to set it up – so is Hillis the goalline back, or was Harrison just tired after a long run? Finally, Hillis fumbled twice. I’d add Hillis just in case he works out, but I also consider Harrison a decent buy-low trade target.

5) Tony Scheffler (DET TE)
The Scheff led Detroit receivers in catches with 6 for 43 yards. With a new QB in (Shaun Hill), there may be even more dumpoffs to Scheffler. Scheffler had some great games receiving in Denver when Cutler was throwing him the ball. If you lost Kevin Boss, Scheffler makes for a good pickup.

The Receivers
Every season, week 1 brings us a bunch of good games from random receivers. It’s so hard to know which will turn into Mike Sims-Walker, and which will just be Earl Bennett.

6) Legadu Naanee (SD WR)
Naanee had 5 catches for 110 yards and a TD. This was a bit of a whacky game because of the weather, but Naanee outplayed Floyd. Someone’s gotta step up and fill Vincent Jackson’s vacancy, and maybe it’s Naanee. He’s probably my favorite WR add this week.

7) Mark Clayton (STL WR)
Clayton led Rams receivers with 10 catches for 119 yards, on 16 targets. Bradford won’t normally have 55 pass attempts but it seems like Clayton is the Rams receiver to own.

8) Austin Collie (IND WR)
Collie had 10 catches for 131 yards and a TD on 11 targets. Garcon actually had the same amount of targets, but some bad drops led him to only 4 catches on those 11 targets. Can Peyton Manning make Clark, Wayne, Garcon and Collie 1,000 yard receivers? Not unless Peyton continues having 57 passing attempts per game, which is doubtful. But Collie should be a decent flex play some weeks.

9) Mike Thomas (JAX WR)
Thomas had 6 catches for 89 yards, while Mike Sims-Walker delivered a big fat goose egg. Thomas had 7 targets to Sims-Walker’s 2. Don’t be fooled; this was because Champ Bailey covered Sims-Walker all day. In future weeks, Sims-Walker will be the primary target and most productive WR. Thomas has cemented his role as the #2 guy however, so he’ll have a little value.

10) Eddie Royal (DEN WR)
Royal had 8 catches for 98 yards. He was the most targeted WR with 10. Royal was a PPR machine his rookie year, but was a monumental bust last year. This is a confusing situation because Lloyd and Gaffney had 8 and 7 targets, plus Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are waiting in the wings. Finally, Denver won’t usually face such a generous pass defense.

11) Brandon Lloyd (DEN WR)
Lloyd had 5 catches for 117 yards. So is he the WR to own in Denver? Like I said above, it’s a difficult situation and I wouldn’t count on Lloyd unless he’s the only one on this list available.

If either Seattle’s or Tampa’s Mike Williams is available, grab him over all these WRs.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I picked up Vick in 2 leagues. But I just feel guilty being in cahoots with that awful man. Oh well.

RamsToSuperbowl said...

Should I drop Donald Brown for Peyton Hillis?

Brett said...

@Rams: No, I wouldn't. Hillis will be more valuable THIS WEEK (Donald Brown isn't being used much). But Brown's upside is much higher. Unless you need to plug in the RB NOW, I'd keep Brown.

Favre-orite said...

@Brett: how does a player's rating in Madden correlate with his fantasy value? Also, I heard you suck at Madden.

Dolfins2SuperBowl said...

@Favre: I guarantee you are terrible at Madden. @Brett: This site cost me a loss in Week 1! Why would you recommend Willis McGahee?!!!

Anonymous said...

Also, @Brett: Why would you recommend all these waiver wire gems that aren't even available in most leagues (in the case of our league, you have picked all of them up already!!). Not cool.

Fantasticsy Football said...

@Brett: I have a theory on post-Week 1 roster movement. It is a prime time to be on the lookout for owners dropping players with strong potential, merely because the player had a sub-par week one. I bet owners everywhere are dropping Bernard Berrian-types and picking up Austin Collie, who will never match his Week 1 performance. Be on the lookout for who others are dropping.

Anonymous said...

And there I was, raving about Michael Vick IN YOUR PRESENCE, and you went and picked him up behind my back.

Also, going forward, do you think Manningham will take away from Hakeem Nicks? And do you think Joe McKnight will have a chance to play after Schonn Greens terrible play last night????

Brett said...

@Fantasticsy Football: Excellent point. I've seen some crazy drops to pickup these Waiver Wire Wonders. Someone dropped Portis to get Brandon Jackson in one league, so I'll scoop Portis up.

@Anonymous: We never recommended McGahee on this site. Also, these Waiver pickups ARE available in most leagues.

And I think Greene's struggles are good news for LT, not McKnight.

Carroll of the Bells said...

Can I pick up an idp player in a non idp league, for example if I wanted Biermann? Do you think branch is the receiver to own in the NFC west? And why did Nicks stop after only three tds?

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