Monday, September 27, 2010

Working the Waiver Wire - Grab BenJarvus Green-Ellis LLP!

There are a ton of injuries to deal with. Depending on who you own, how your roster looks overall, and how deep your league is, the value of these waiver wire adds will vary dramatically. For example, if you're in a deeper league, you're in 1st place, and you own Steven Jackson, that puts a premium on Ken Darby because it's a nice insurance move. If you're in a medium league, you're in last place, and your team is WR heavy, you'll want a high upside longterm RB like Ryan Torain or LaGarrette Blount. In general though, here are some players who are likely free agents in your league that should be on your radar.

RBs


1) Peyton Hillis (CLE RB)
Hillis is still unowned in many leagues. He's an absolute must-add if he's available in yours. He figures to emerge as the leader in carries, as Harrison looks more and more like a bust.


2) BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE RB)
Green-Ellis is known as "The Law Firm" because of his near collapse during the economic recession. Ha! Actually, it's because of his many last names. Green-Ellis looks to be the new featured back in New England, which normally isn't worth much because their gaggle of RBs always rotates. However, the Pats just traded Laurence Maroney, then Kevin Faulk was placed on Injured Reserve, and now Fred Taylor has injured his toe. What was once a 5-headed attack has been trimmed to 2: Green-Ellis and Sammy Morris. (The Pats also just signed Danny Woodhead off the Jets practice squad.) Morris will fill Faulk's third down role, providing Green-Ellis with a prime opportunity to be a featured back on this offense.


3) Ryan Torain (WAS RB)
We've been touting Keiland Williams for over a month, but it was instead Ryan Torain who inexplicably split carries with Clinton Portis yesterday. ESPN's Adam Schefter said his contacts at the Washington front office love Keiland Williams. So when fantasy analyst Matthew Berry asked Schefter what was going on with Williams during the game, Schefter responded, "I have no idea; I'm trying to find out" while furiously texting his contacts. It was surprising, but Torain was just promoted to the #2 RB on the team's official depth chart. We hate to admit it, but if you picked up Keiland Williams, you need to drop him for Ryan Torain. Portis is dealing with a wrist injury, and the game made it look like Torain was the starting between-the-tackles RB while Portis was a 3rd down back. Torain averaged 6.6 yards-per-carry on his 7 carries. He shouldn't be starting in any leagues yet, but he definitely has longterm upside.


4) Marshawn Lynch (BUF RB)
We were unsure whether Lynch was just being displayed for trade purposes last week, or if he really will lead this committee in carries. Through 3 games, Lynch has 34 touches (carries plus receptions), C.J. Spiller has 23 touches, and Fred Jackson has 19 touches. I still like Spiller as a buy-low, assuming you can get him for really cheap. But if you're starting a Bills back in week 4, it has to be Lynch.


5) Ken Darby (STL RB)
Steven Jackson left the game with a groin injury and Darby looked decent in replacement duty. Keith Toston will be in the mix, and probably get some goalline carries. Jackson's MRI revealed no tear, just a strain. He could easily miss week 4, but shouldn't miss too much more than that. We'll closely monitor Jackson's status because Darby's value is completely dependent on Jackson's health. Darby would get Seattle this week, and would likely start on many teams rattled by injuries and byes.


6) LeGarrette Blount and Kareem Huggins (TB RB)
Blount, a rookie, ran 6 times for 27 yards and a TD. Coach Morris confirmed that they're planning to scale back Cadillac Williams' touches probably because he's fragile, and ineffective with a 2.5 yards-per-carry. Cadillac Williams is dangerously close to be being droppable in standard leagues. Our big preseason sleeper, Kareem Huggins could also be in the mix for more carries once he's fully healthy.


7) Chris Ivory (NO RB)
Ivory looks to be the #2 back in New Orleans while Reggie Bush is out. Ivory carried the ball 7 times for just 13 yards, but Coach Payton is sticking with Ivory as his short yardage back. Without a Pierre Thomas injury, I can't imagine starting Ivory in anything but the deepest of leagues.


8) Maurice Morris (DET RB)
Jahvid Best looks like he may have the dreaded turf toe. But if he can play through the pain, Best may still start on Sunday against Green Bay. If he misses time, Maurice Morris would likely get the start, with the possibility of Kevin Smith getting involved too. Morris would have some value as a starting NFL RB, but I'm not dropping anyone good for Morris.


9) Laurence Maroney (DEN RB)
Knowshon Moreno pulled his hammy in practice on Friday, so Maroney got the nod on Sunday. Maroney looked mediocre. If Moreno does miss another week or 2, Maroney is looking at Tennessee, Baltimore, and the Jets. The Broncos are now a pass-first team, and Maroney will lose a few carries to the elder statesman, Correll Buckhalter. There's no way I could recommend starting Maroney unless you have no one else who could foreseeably get you 4 or 5 points.


WRs


1) Louis Murphy (OAK WR)
After a disappointing week 2, Murphy came back with a big game now that Bruce Gradkowski is at the helm. Murphy leads all Raiders in catches (15), yards (238), and has a TD. (Interestingly, Darrius Heyward-Bey actually had the most targets this weekend with 11, but could only hold on to 3 of them. You'd think Gradkowski will learn his lesson and give even more love to Murphy.) There will be plenty of weeks where a Denver WR or Lance Moore will outperform Murphy, but Murphy would be my top add because I anticipate the most consistency out of him.


2) Jabar Gaffney (DEN WR)
Demaryius Thomas suffered an elbow injury, but it doesn't look serious enough to hold him out of any games. At this point, here is the breakdown of the 4 Denver receivers:
Jabar Gaffney: 26 targets, 17 catches, 189 yards, 1 TD.
Eddie Royal: 24 targets, 17 catches, 186 yards, 1 TD.
Brandon Lloyd: 22 targets, 14 catches, 339 yards, 1 TD.
Demaryius Thomas: 15 targets, 10 catches, 140 yards, 1 TD.
Lloyd is a top 5 fantasy receiver, and Gaffney and Royal are top 30. Kyle Orton looks prolific, but can he produce 4 starting WRs? No. For now, these guys will keep rotating; this was the Coach's plan all along. But as speculative waiver picks, I like Gaffney the most, then Thomas, then Royal, then Lloyd.


3) Lance Moore (NO WR)
Moore busted out with 6 catches for 149 yards and 2 TDs. He also led the Saints WRs in targets. He picked up the slack in 2008 when Reggie Bush was injured. I think this was a bit of a fluke. Drew Brees will spread the ball around so that one of Colston, Henderson, Meachem, or Moore will get some 75 yard TD bomb in most games. But aside from Colston, I'm hesitant to start any one of them. Meachem is still owned in way too many leagues - I would drop Meachem or Henderson for Moore at this point and see how this develops.


QBs


1) Kyle Orton (DEN QB)
Orton is a top 5 fantasy QB so far and could be a top 10 QB going forward. He needs to be owned in every league, but he's still available in a third of leagues.


2) Chad Henne (MIA QB)
Henne was a popular sleeper and finally delivered against the Jets last night. Brandon Marshall and Chad Henne really clicked as the receiver busted out for 10 cacthes, 166 yards, and a TD. Henne also made effective use of Brian Hartline and Davone Bess. Henne looked mediocre in his first 2 starts against tough defenses, so we'll see if he can continue this success in average and easy matchups.

9 comments:

Beer Man said...

Should I pick up Hartline?

Amanda said...

For Byes, are there any kickers worth keeping or do you always drop the one you have on bye for the best available?

Anonymous said...

So I can drop Fred Taylor, right?

Brett said...

@BeerMan: If you're in a very deep league, Hartline is worth an add, but I don't expect a lot from him.

@Amanda: Great question. We'll be writing about Kicker and Defense management later on today, coincidentally! The short of it is: If you're confident you have a top 5 Kicker or Defense, then try to hold on to him and drop someone else for your Kicker bye-week replacement. If he's anything less than a top 5 guy or his replacement is also a top 5 guy, drop your kicker.

@Anonymous: Yes. I would drop Taylor for any of the guys in this Waiver pickup column.

Anonymous said...

Why do you like jabar over Brandon Loyd when loyd has more yards?

TheRealBeerman69 said...

Brett -- I have to disagree with you about Hartline. That guy is awesome.

Dismukes said...

Should I pick up that Chris Johnson guy from Tennessee?
jk. hah

Brett said...

@Anonymous: You're right. Lloyd COULD outproduce the other Denver WRs, and he DOES have more yards. I still like that Gaffney has the most targets. Plus, after watching the 4 preseason games and reading practice reports, I get the sense that Gaffney has better chemistry with Kyle Orton. As with most fantasy football predictions, it's part "educated guess" and part "hunch."

Anonymous said...

Do you think i should i drop Willis McGahee for Ryan Torain?
Thanks,
LB

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