Under-Reacting

 You don’t want to overreact to preseason performances, coach’s announcements, or glowing reports from rosey-eyed beat writers. But you don’t want to under-react either. Your draftsheet should be fluid – changing everyday. You can't use a magazine that was written in June. This is a busy draft weekend, so I’ll make this quick and very simple. A lot of guys are great, you know it, and nothing has changed: Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Dallas Clark. Here are guys you should want, and not want, based on recent developments that you may not know unless you follow every tidbit of news, and preseason game. (Of course, it's always about value, so don't reach for the Guys You Want and don't let the Guys You Don't Want slip too far).

Guys You Want
Aaron Rodgers: (GB QB) Green Bay looks to be one of the most prolific offenses in the league this season.

Steven Jackson: (STL RB) Looks fully healthy and just as talented as always. I expect a few more TDs this year, so don’t let him fall to the 2nd round.

Ryan Matthews: (SD RB) Great preseason performance. Get him in the middle of the 2nd.

Greg Jennings: (GB WR) The improved O-line means Rodgers will have more time to go deep to Jennings this year.

Jamaal Charles: (KC RB) Charles is blowing Thomas Jones out of the water. This kid is really talented, with an easy schedule.

Arian Foster: (HOU RB) Huge opportunity to be feature-back in a great offense. Get him in the 4th.

Jermichael Finley: (GB TE) Looks to have a special connection with Rodgers.

Dwayne Bowe: (KC WR) Bowe may finally have his head on straight. He’s been getting glowing reviews all month.

Pierre Garcon: (IND WR) Garcon looks entrenched as the #2 with the one and only Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

Percy Harvin: (MIN WR) Sidney Rice’s injury opened the door for Harvin, and the coaches have a lot of confidence in him.

Ahmad Bradshaw: (NYG RB) Now officially the starter in NY.

Terrell Owens: (CIN WR) Has looked awesome in preseason games. Maybe last year’s poor numbers were just a product of his awful QB.

Reggie Bush: (NO RB) Has looked great in preseason action; he’s not just a 3rd down back.

Johnny Knox: (CHI WR) Cutler’s favorite target in this Martz offense.

Jerome Harrison: (CLE RB) Has prime opportunity now that Hardesty is done for the season.

LaDainian Tomlinson: (NYJ RB) Looks like he’s got juice left in the tank after all.

Zach Miller: (OAK TE) Reports from Oakland say Miller is Jason Campbell’s favorite target.

Darren McFadden: (OAK RB) Michael Bush will be out for several weeks, so it’s do-or-die time for DMC to show off how good he can be.

Ben Roethlisberger: (PIT QB) Suspension officially reduced from 6 to 4 weeks. Has looked good in preseason and so has his new starting WR, Mike Wallace.


Mike Williams: (TB WR) Williams looks solid in Tampa. He’ll catch some balls this year.

Jacoby Jones: (HOU WR) Athletic beast who the coaches love.

Matthew Stafford: (DET QB) Stafford looks much improved, and all his new toys look good (Best, Scheffler, and Burleson).

Mike Williams: (SEA WR) Housh’s departure allows Williams to be the new #1 guy.

Fred Taylor: (NE RB) Maroney looks bad; Taylor looks good. This backfield is a mess, but Taylor’s the guy to own.

Laurent Robinson: (STL WR) Donnie Avery’s injury clears up this WR situation so that Robinson should be the clear-cut #1 target for surprisingly good-looking QB Sam Bradford.


Louis Murphy: (OAK WR) Chaz Schillens continued health problems allow deep-threat Murphy to become QB Jason Campbell’s #1 WR.


Jabar Gaffney: (DEN WR) This muddled receiver corps is finally gaining clarity, at least for the beginning of the season – Gaffney will be the #1 with decent-looking Orton at QB.

Kareem Huggins: (TB RB) The Bucs cut Derrick Ward, so Huggins is the #2 and could push for playing time alongside Cadillac Williams.

Keiland Williams: (WAS RB) This last sleeper has impressed. Willie Parker and Ryan Torain were cut, leaving only aging vets Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson in the way of Williams being a starter. Only draft in deeper leagues though.


Guys You Don't Want
(unless they fall to you)

MJD: (JAX RB) Possible meniscus injury issue. I might drop him to 5th or 6th to be safe.

Larry Fitzgerald: (ARI WR) Serious QB issues with Derek Anderson. He's out of my top 3 WRs.


Shonn Greene: (NYJ RB) Downgrade a tad because of LT's strong performance.

DeSean Jackson: (PHI WR) You can't assume DJax will be as good as last year with Kolb's mediocre performance.

Kevin Kolb: (PHI QB) Speak of the devil, people are drafting Kolb for his upside but have not factored in the possibility that he's not that good.

Chad Ochocinco: (CIN WR) T.O. may significantly eat into Ocho's production.

Chris Wells: (ARI RB) Offense is in some trouble, and Wells looks average in preseason.

Vincent Jackson: (WR) VJax may not play a game this year.

Justin Forsett: (SEA RB) O-line coach resigned. Housh was cut, so the offense looks worrisome. The backfield will also be a committee.

Brandon Jacobs: (NYG RB) Demoted with Bradshaw as the starter. I still think they'll be close to equal.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh: (WR) Released by Seahawks. Maybe he'll have value depending on what team picks him up.

Robert Meachem: (NO WR) Has not taken a hold of the #2 job, so will split targets with Devery Henderson.

Thomas Jones: (KC RB) Charles significantly outplayed TJ.

Steve Breaston: (ARI WR) Still competing for looks with Early Doucet, plus a bad QB.

Julian Edelman: (NE WR) Welker looks healthy. I can't imagine starting Edelman without an injury to Moss or Welker.

Steve Slaton: (HOU RB) No more than a 3rd down back. Plus, Slaton has turf toe.

Kenny Britt: (TEN WR) Though he has the most talent of this receiving group, he is a bonehead and was justifiably buried on the depth chart.

Laurence Maroney: (NE RB) Fred Taylor looks like the #1 guy here, while Maroney is running with the 2nd stringers.

John Carlson: (SEA TE) I've mentioned Seattle's offensive problems, and reports say Carlson will have to stay in to block. 

Injuries:
Sidney Rice: (MIN WR) Will be out until November at least.
Michael Bush: (OAK RB) Will be out about 2 months.
Fred Jackson: (BUF RB) Will be limited early in the season.