QBs
Matt Schaub (HOU QB)
Schaub put together a week fantasy day, but he was facing an underrated Colts pass defense. In reality, the Texans got up big right away with the run game and stuck with it to protect their lead. The Texans attempted the 4th most passes in the league last year. Maybe they won’t replicate that, but they’ll still pass a lot.
Joe Flacco (BAL QB)
Flacco had a bad fantasy day, but considering his opponent (top ranked pass defense), I thought Flacco did extremely well. He made good throws on the move. Take advantage of an owner who thinks Flacco will continue getting only 7 points. With Boldin, Mason, Houshmandzadeh, and Rice, Flacco will have a great season.
WRs
Andre Johnson (HOU WR)
See the Schaub analysis above. If Johnson’s owner thinks he’ll be anything less than the best WR in football after a poor showing in one week, snatch him up.
Jacoby Jones (HOU WR)
Again, see the Schaub analysis. Jacoby was actually the most targeted player on the Texans with Schaub’s few attempts. If he continues being the most targeted player in this offense, he will have a breakout season.
Mike Sims-Walker (JAC WR)
This is the ultimate buy-low. He delivered zero catches for zero yards on just 2 targets. But the lesson here is Champ Bailey has still got it, and covered Sims-Walker all day. Garrard looked good overall and will send a lot more targets towards Sims-Walker.
Dwayne Bowe (KC WR)
Another buy-low: Bowe had just 1 catch for 13 yards. He was the most targeted Chiefs receiver with 5. It was a wet, sloppy game, so Cassel didn’t pass a lot and when he did, he had a hard time completing his passes. Bowe had a great pre-season and I think he’ll be a serviceable WR2 that you can get really cheap right now.
Percy Harvin (MIN WR)
This parallels Bowe’s situation very closely: Harvin only had 1 catch for 12 yards, and was also the most targeted Wide Receiver with 5. Coach Childress really limited the passing game and focused on A.P. But as Favre gets more time navigating the offense without Sidney Rice, I think Harvin will be the most productive receiver (despite other analysts’ whacky claims that Shiancoe will lead the team in receiving yards).
RBs
Ray Rice (BAL RB)
Averaging 2 yards per carry against the Jets run defense is actually not that bad. Give Rice 21 carries in any other game and he’ll excel. If you can get him for anyone besides AP, CJ, or MJD, go for it.
Michael Turner (ATL RB)
Same goes for Turner. Pittsburgh was the best run D last year. Give Turner 19 carries any other day of the year and he’ll do just fine. Get him for anyone outside of the top 5 backs (CJ, AP, MJD, Rice, and Gore).
Jerome Harrison (CLE RB)
Harrison’s value took a huge hit Sunday when Peyton Hillis all of the sudden turned Cleveland into a 50-50 committee – at least, that’s what most fantasy analysts including ESPN’s Matt Berry are saying. However, as I mentioned recently, I expect Harrison to reclaim his starting job, or at least a 2-to-1 split of the carries. Coach Mangini talked about Jerome Harrison “seizing the opportunity” to be a feature back after Montario Hardesty landed on Injured Reserve. It’s hard to judge the timeshare by this one game because the Browns did not sustain a lot of long drives. They put Hillis in on the goal line after Harrison’s long run set it up – so is Hillis the goalline back, or was Harrison just tired after a long run? Finally, Hillis fumbled twice, which Mangini is unlikely to forget. I’d probably trade away Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, C.J. Spiller, or Brandon Jacobs for Harrison.
TEs
Jermichael Finley (GB TE)
I still love this guy. He had a quiet Sunday with only 4 catches for 47 yards, as Rodgers struggled to get this offense firing on all cylinders. But Finley was double covered by the Eagles for much of the game. In future games, defenses will have to prioritize covering Jennings or Finley, so Finley is in line for some big games. I still like Finley as the 3rd best TE, so trade anyone but Clark or Gates for him while you can.
Sell-High
Hakeem Nicks (NYG WR)
Nicks just had his best game of the year. He was very impressive with 3 TDs, but with Manningham and Steve Smith demanding targets, you cannot count on this kind of production from Nicks. If someone else thinks you can, unload Nicks on him.
Arian Foster (HOU RB)
Don’t get me wrong; this guy is the real deal. But there may be an owner in your league who will give you first round value for him, and I’d rather have any of the first round guys than Foster. Foster will be a stud, but he can’t always face a defense missing its best defensive player (Bob Sanders). Plus, Houston passed so much last year. They may have a more balanced attack this year, but you can’t expect 33 carries again.
Tim Hightower (ARI RB)
Hightower had okay stats by the end of the day, but it was against the Rams. And Hightower fumbled and lost the ball twice. This will be Beanie Wells’ gig when he returns this week. Maybe the Wells owner in your league is worried about Hightower overtaking Wells and will give you someone good in exchange for Hightower.
Jahvid Best (DET RB)
Best averaged just 1.4 yards per carry against the Bears. His 2 TDs inflate his fantasy points, but I’m in the camp that for the most part, you can count on carries or targets for yards, but not TDs. So sell high on Best, especially because the offense may struggle with Shaun Hill at the helm while Stafford is out.
LeSean McCoy (PHI RB)
Tell your potential trade partner, “McCoy averaged an impressive 5 yards-per-carry against the Packers and added 5 catches for 47 yards! With Leonard Weaver out for the season, McCoy will be the goalline back (as he scored a TD on Sunday) and will get huge production on this explosive offense!” However, the Eagles lost their starting center Jamaal Jackson for the year. Plus, McCoy only got 7 carries. Plus, with Kevin Kolb’s injury-slash-general suckiness on Sunday, this offense may not be as explosive as it was last year. Don’t panic if you own McCoy. But if you can get fair value for him, say Pierre Thomas, I’d make that deal.
11 comments:
what about Cutler and Forte? It's not every week you get to face the Lions. should i sell high?
For most RBs, I would be worried about only getting production out of a few long receiving TDs. But in this Mike Martz offense and with a great pass-catching back like Forte, I think this was not a fluke. Forte may have as many receiving yards as rushing yards by year's end.
I'd buy low on AP if we people were disappointed iwth his less than 100 yards and no TD game. he will be most valuable player in fantasy this year.
i just traded Legedu Naanee for Dwayne Bowe! boo-yah!
@DaBears: I agree with Anonymous and that's why I didn't put Cutler or Forte in the sell-high category. Of course, if someone is willing to give you a top 5 QB for Cutler or a top 15 RB for Forte, I'd pull the trigger. But I think their value has legitimately risen since draft day.
And congrats on the Naanee/Bowe trade!
I think Forte could be a sell-high candidate. (Don't kill me Ben...)
I think he's good but if people think he is a top 5 back, I think they're mistaken.
I'd trade Forte for a handful of guys. I think he is a legitimate RB2, but I'd be nervous to have him as my top RB every week.
I would probably trade him for Mendenhall, Turner, or anther proven top 10 back but I am fairly indifferent between him and less proven guys like Ryan Matthews, Arian Foster, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy, etc. I think he has just as much upside as a lot of the top RBs especially considering osme of the question marks with other RB's offenses.
Also, see below:
Wed, Sep 15
RB Matt Forte shouldn't be surprised if he leads the Bears in receiving -- offensive coordinator Mike Martz won't be. With the Rams, RB Marshall Faulk had 80 catches or more in three straight seasons and led the team with 83 in 2001 despite missing two games. Speaking to the Bears' radio flagship WBBM, Martz said Forte is "a very difficult guy for guys to match up with. I don't care if it's a safety or a linebacker. We can put them out there on the (cornerback) and he can do well."
(Yahoo! Sports)
I sure hope you're right Ben O! I have Forte in both my leagues.
The real test is this weekend. How does the Bears offensive line hold up against a top defense? Will teams focus on Forte? Will the Bears still look for him if they fall behind by 2 touchdowns plus?
It's one thing to be Marshall Faulk with 2 great WR, a great O Line, and a hall of fame QB. It's another thing entirely to try to be Marhsall Faulk with a crap O Line, some no-name WRs, and a QB who gives away interceptions like Halloween candy.
where's thursday's article ffmvp?
So if I had Steve Smith, TO, Lagedu Nanee, Braylon Edwards, and Austin Collie - which should I try to pawn off onto others, possibly for Jacoby Jones?
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