Trade Targets - Week 3

Targets / Buy-Low

The Injury Ward: If you have enough healthy RBs without byes in the next 2 weeks, you should try to move for someone who might miss a game or two.

Knowshon Moreno (DEN RB)
Moreno will probably miss week 4. His status for week 5 is unclear. He faces the Titans, Jets, and Ravens in the next 3 weeks though, so you wouldn’t want to start Moreno in those weeks even if he was fully healthy. (So it may make sense to wait until his value is really low after some difficult performances before targeting him.) From week 7 on, he was a great schedule. He is the clear featured back on this team when healthy, so get him cheap now.

Steven Jackson (STL RB)
Jackson is a true game time decision, or GTD (not to be confused with GTL from Jersey Shore). I'm tentatively expecting him not to play against the Seahawks on Sunday. But his groin injury is only a strain, not a tear. So he should be good to go after this week. If his panicky owner will take anything less than a top 10 RB for Jackson, make that deal.

Ryan Mathews (SD RB)
Mathews is looking more and more likely to play this Sunday, but it's not certain. His owner cannot be happy with 2 mediocre games and an injury already. We tried to dissuade readers from drafting this rookie in the 1st round, but he still is a talented guy in a great situation. Tolbert will likely steal some goalline carries so temper your TD expectations. But if his owner is concerned about the injury or concerned that this will be a Tolbert/Sproles/Mathews timeshare, you should get Mathews for any low RB2 or RB3.

Jahvid Best (DET RB)
Best has the dreaded turf toe and it's unlikely he'll play this week. (If you sold-high on him when we told you to, you're lucky.) Even if he comes back soon, durability and health will always be a concern for him. That being said, he's clearly an electric player when he's on the field. He's a very high upside, low downside kind of player. But if you're feeling gutsy, Best should be a solid RB2.

Chris "Beanie" Wells (ARI RB)
Wells was eased back into gameplay on Sunday and played very well. Some owners think Hightower's performances have turned this into a committee. While Hightower will play a lot of 3rd downs, the coaches have been clear that Wells is their man. Arizona will run the ball this year more than they have in the past. Grab Wells now if his owner is too worried about Hightower.

Ray Rice (BAL RB)
Rice has no TDs and no long runs yet. But they'll come - the offense finally clicked together against the Browns, and Flacco has confidence going forward. Rice has a significant knee contusion, but could still face the Steelers this week. Emphasize to Rice's owner that he is banged up and won't get any TDs because Willis McGahee gets all the goalline work (which is true). But Rice is such a play-maker that I would still rank him as a top 5 RB.

Underperforming RBs
There are no injuries to explain the lack of fantasy points from these guys. They just haven't delivered yet.

Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC RB)
MJD is doing just fine. He's getting about 20 carries per game and averaging about 4 yards per carry. Like Rice, MJD is just waiting for a TD and/or long run. The offense looks weak, but MJD will get his. Pocket Hercules is also still a top 5 player.

Shonn Greene (NYJ RB)
The way Greene has been playing, and more importantly the way L.T. has been playing, Greene is nowhere close to his early second round average draft position. His value could not get any lower. If his owner is stubbornly sticking to the opinion that Greene is still an RB1, then you will not get him at a fair price. But Greene has nowhere to go but up, especially considering there's a good chance that Tomlinson cannot keep up his current performance at his age. If you can get Greene for someone like Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams, or Felix Jones, go for it.

Underperforming QBs

Matt Schaub (HOU QB), and Joe Flacco (BAL QB)
Moving forward, I would rank Schaub 5th overall, and Flacco 10th overall. They currently sit as the 10th and 21st best QBs in fantasy points. If you can trade Michael Vick for Schaub, or Kyle Orton for Flacco, make the deal.

Underperforming TEs

Vernon Davis (SF TE), and Jason Witten (DAL TE)
Both TEs have not delivered yet, but Witten has the 2nd most targets next to Miles Austin, and Davis has the most targets of any 49er receiver. Both offenses will continue to improve. Remind the Davis-owner of how bad the Niners offense has looked, and remind the Witten-owner about Witten's concussion, but Witten is fine and will play in week 5 after his bye. Both guys are still elite TE1s.

Underperforming WRs

Greg Jennings (GB WR)
Chicago's Tampa 2 defense took away all the long routes on Monday Night, which is why Rodgers went to Driver and Finley so much and Jennings only had 2 catches. It looks like Rodgers' protection is legitimately improved (he was sacked zero times on Monday), so Rodgers can go deep to Jennings more often than not.

Steve Smith (CAR WR)
When Matt Moore was the QB in weeks 1 and 2, Smith was averaging a solid 70 yards and one TD per game. When rookie Jimmy Clausen took over in week 3, Smith's numbers nosedived to just 22 yards. Clausen said recently that he knows he has to get Smith the ball more, but he doesn't want to force the ball into coverage and risk an interception. a) Matt Moore could return, in which case I have full confidence in Smith as a WR2. b) Clausen can only get better. It was his first game, and he has to take some risks to make things happen. Plus, Steve Smith has performed with all sorts of bad QBs throwing him the ball.

Dez Bryant (DAL WR)
The rookie's off-field antics, low numbers (50 yards per game and no TDs), and now an injury make Bryant a player that owners may be eager to ditch. However, he looks to be quickly recovering from the injury, and will be good to go after this week's bye. Bryant also had 2 long would-be TDs on Sunday that didn't quite work out. He's getting targets and Romo's confidence. Roy Williams' huge game may have totally overshadowed Dez, but I still think Bryant will have the 2nd most receiving yards by year's end (next to Miles Austin of course).

If They’re Still Not Believeing: 
These guys were drafted very late or just picked up off waivers, but they're legit fantasy starters. If owners in your league are still skeptical, make the move now, before the owners become believers. Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis are both legit RB2s, and Mark Clayton and Louis Murphy are both legit WR3s.


Unload / Sell-High

Michael Vick (PHI QB)
Vick put up huge numbers against 2 of the worst defenses in the league (Detroit and Jacksonville). Normally, that would be a textbook sell-high. However, NFL Network's Playbook Analyst predicts that Vick will maintain this high level of play, even against tougher defenses. Vick is finding open receivers and converting on 3rd and 10, instead of just running for 7 yards. The only reason I have Vick here is 1) his injury history, and 2) you probably have 2 serviceable QBs. If you have Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, or Schaub, and Vick, then you have too much QB talent on your team. Find the guy in your league who thinks Vick is the #1 fantasy QB (Trust me, he's out there), and take a huge upgrade at another position for yourself. If you want to keep 2 QBs on your roster, do a 2-for-2 in which you upgrade your RB or WR and take a downgrade in backup QB. In a league in which I had Vick and Schaub, I recently unloaded Vick and C.J. Spiller for Joe Flacco and Cedric Benson.

Austin Collie (IND WR)
Collie is the #1 fantasy WR right now. I'm not saying he's a fluke; Collie has earned his status as an every week fantasy start. But as Pierre Garcon heals and steals a few targets, I think Collie will settle back into a low WR2 role. If someone in your league wants to give you Steve Smith or Greg Jennings for Collie, make that deal.

Brandon Lloyd (DEN WR)
Lloyd is currently the #4 fantasy WR. I don't expect Lloyd to be anywhere near that spot in a month. Lloyd's production came in week 1, when Thomas wasn't playing, and week 3, when Thomas sustained another injury. The Denver receiving corps is a crapshoot, but I would still rank them 1) Gaffney, 2) Thomas, 3) Royal, 4) Lloyd.

Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards (NYJ WRs)
I don't know how much you can get for these guys, but if you can get anything, take it. Braylon has significantly more fantasy points, but the majority came on one short pass on Sunday night, where the Dolphins defender just slipped and Edwards ran it all the way in. Santonio Holmes is the best receiver on this roster and will return next week to sap away most of their targets.

Tim Hightower (ARI RB)
See my Beanie Wells analysis above. I'm not saying Hightower is now merely a handcuff; I expect Hightower to have roughly equal rushing and receiving yards going forward (meaning he's a solid pass-catching 3rd down back), and you could even start him in your flex when you have 2 guys on their byes. But if someone in your league thinks Hightower will get 50% of the carries, trade Hightower to that guy.

Clinton Portis (WAS RB), and Cadillac Williams (TB RB)
For both of these oldies but goodies, (I guess they're not actually that old, they just seem like it), I've been saying all along to avoid them in drafts because you can't expect them to be solid throughout the whole season. But they're starting RBs on NFL teams, and should be started on most fantasy teams, especially in easy matchups. "Ride 'em while you got 'em." But that ride looks to already be coming to an end as Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams usurp Portis' role, and LeGarrette Blount and Kareem Huggins usurp Williams' role. In both cases, the veteran's declining role does not seem to be injury-related, more ineffectiveness-related. I've dropped Caddy Williams in 12 team leagues. So if you can trade them for anything, do it now.