Mean Green Projection Machine

For the first edition of Mean Projections, it is undoubtedly hard to rely on the projections as we don't know which week 1 performances were legit and which were flukes (including fantasy players and defenses). I would probably never recommend starting Donovan McNabb over Tom Brady, so use this tool as a reference point, not a ranking. McNabb does have a good matchup though, and Brady does have a bad matchup. Take that for what it's worth. (We're focusing on QBs and RBs because that position is the most matchup sensitive.)

Methodology: For the QBs, we simply average the player's performances with the points that his opponents gives up. For the RBs, we take into account each RB's workload. So since DeAngelo Williams accounts for about half of the Carolina runningback production, we average Carolina's running points with the opponent's allowed running points, and give Williams half of it. So if you think the first weeks workload is not indicative of things to come, you can adjust that. For example, Brandon Jackson will likely account for more than 38% of Green Bay's RB production this week, and Beanie Wells will certainly account for more than 0% of Arizona's production if he plays. So focus on the fact that their matchups look soft (vs. Buf and Atl), and start them with confidence.

Observations:
1) Michael Vick has the perfect combination of an excellent week 1 performance and an easy matchup. I don't think he's actually the #1 QB this week, but he's top 10 for sure.

2) Tom Brady has one of the hardest opponents this week in NYJ. Yet he still shows up as a top QB because of his incredible week 1 performance. He's too good to sit. So don't get cute by benching him.

3) Chad Henne, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith all show up in the bottom because they each had poor week 1 showings, and face opponents who didn't give up many points to QBs in week 1. That's a dangerous combo - If you have any better starting options, bench these guys.

4) Ahmad Bradshaw and Darren McFadden both show up toward the top because they both did well week 1, and face easy opponents in Indy and St. Louis. Even though you didn't draft them to start for you, they probably belong in your starting line-up this week.

5) All three Buffalo RBs appear toward the bottom of the RB list because
a) they each performed poorly in week 1,
b) they each account for a small percentage of their team's production (because there's 3 of them - duh), and
c) they face a tough matchup against Green Bay.