Hot or Not - Week 2 (Start Brandon Jackson and Mike Vick)

Last week’s Hot Or Not was a rough start for our FFMVP predictions. We were correct on the majority of our calls, including big days from Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, and Kyle Orton. But you probably remember our misses better. I felt great about predicting a slow outing from Pierre Thomas when he had zero points at halftime, but the Saints totally changed their gameplan and leaned heavily on him in the 2nd half. I apologize if you benched Hakeem Nicks – Nicks had as many TDs on Sunday as the Carolina Panthers allowed against WRs all year in ’09. The Panthers were one of the second matchups for WRs, second only to the Revis-led Jets. Speaking of Revis, reports said he would shadow Boldin all day. Instead, he rotated who he was covering, which allowed Boldin to have a good game. We were also disappointed in Johnny Knox’s quiet day, but we still think he’ll be a gem.

HOT

QBs

Michael Vick (PHI QB)
Vick comes in as the #1 QB this week on our Mean Projections. Again, that doesn’t necessarily mean I literally would start Vick over any other QB. It does mean that Vick performed very well in week 1, and is facing an easy defense. That’s a combo that leads to fantasy success. Vick is a top 10 (maybe top 6) start this week.


Tom Brady (NE QB)
This may be obvious to some of you, but some will panic about the Jets matchup. The Jets were #1 against QBs last year. Brady has said publicly that he doesn’t plan on challenging Darrelle Revis this Sunday, who will likely be covering Randy Moss the entire game. Brady will target Welker instead, and pick on rookie corner Kyle Wilson and Antonio Cromartie. Don’t get cute; start Brady.

RBs

Brandon Jackson (GB RB)
Jackson is the man in Green Bay now. With no competition for carries, and in this easy matchup against Buffalo, BJax is a must-start. Jackson is not an explosive player, but he doesn’t need to be in this situation. He can get 20 carries for 80 yards in Green Bay’s one-cut-and-go system, and add 30 yards on a few catches.

Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG RB)
Bradshaw is clearly the starting back in New York, though Jacobs will steal 30-40% of the carries in Sunday night’s Manning Bowl. We saw what Arian Foster did to the Bob Sanders-less Colts last week. Bradshaw should put together a nice little fantasy performance.

Darren McFadden (OAK RB)
McFadden should be a no-brainer start against St. Louis’s run D. Michael Bush is looking doubtful to play. A lot of owners hate on DMC and didn’t start him last week. It’s finally time to buy-in.

LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ RB)
I’m not starting L.T. in any league because I have better options, but if you need some help, L.T. should be serviceable. If you drafted both Jets backs, I’d start L.T. over Greene this week. It’s not an easy matchup, but the Jets will run (it’s what they do). Coach Ryan says Greene will “start” the game, which just means he’ll receive the first carry (which he’ll probably fumble). The Jets want Greene to be their feature back, as L.T.’s not getting any younger. But while Greene gets his act together, I expect L.T. to get more carries in the game and be more productive.

WRs

Wes Welker (NE WR)
Welker is healthy (at least, healthy enough to score twice in week 1). Darrelle Revis will shadow Randy Moss throughout the game (if Revis even plays), leaving Cromartie to cover Welker. Tom Brady has bluntly admitted that he won’t challenge Revis, which will mean plenty of targets for Welker. Welker is a must-start top 10 option.

Hines Ward (PIT WR)
Ward was not a “sexy” draft-pick. He’s aging, and has QB issues. But Ward has consistently been doing his thing for years. Tennessee was the #1 easiest matchup for WRs alst year. I don’t expect them to be that bad this year, but Ward should do just fine this weekend. And if you’re in a PPR league, or a PPGS league (Points Per Goofy Smile), he’s an even better start!

Dez Bryant (DAL WR)
This rookie made an impressive NFL debut against Washington. Most importantly, many of Bryant’s targets and catches came when Romo was leading his final comeback attempt, meaning Romo trusts this rookie to get the job done. I expect Bryant to make it clear that he’s the #2, and not Roy Williams, this week against Chicago.

Jacoby Jones (HOU WR)
I’m not expecting huge numbers yet, but Jones should be a serviceable flex option against Washington’s average secondary. Jones was the most targeted player in week 1. If Houston returns to a slightly more balanced attack this week, Jones should perform well.

TES

Tony Scheffler (DET TE)
Scheffler led Detroit receivers with 6 catches in Week 1. I expect Shaun Hill to dump it off to Scheffler frequently in this week's matchup against Philadelphia, who allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to TEs last year.

Brent Celek (PHI TE)
Don’t be too alarmed that Celek lost his roomie QB Kevin Kolb. His big catches actually came with Vick in week 1. When Vick is not scrambling, he will throw the football short to Celek. Would it surprise you to know that Detroit gave up the 6th most fantasy points to TEs last year? Well, it shouldn’t.

Heath Miller (PIT TE)
The opponent, Tennessee, gave up the 8th most points to TEs last year.

Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN TE)
The opponent, Miami, gave up the 11th most points to TEs last year.

Zach Miller (OAK TE)
The opponent, St. Louis, gave up the 12th most points to TEs last year.

Chris Cooley (WAS TE)
The opponent, Houston, gave up the 13th most points to TEs last year.

NOT

QBs

Derek Anderson (ARI QB)
Anderson put together a solid fantasy day on Sunday, but it was against the Rams. This week, he faces a decent Falcons pass defense. Plus, it seems clear that Larry Fitzgerald is not quite at 100% yet.

Matt Hasselbeck (SEA QB)
Hasselbeck was on fire on Sunday and was added in leagues all over the country this weekend. I don’t buy it. More importantly, he faces Denver who ranked #3 in hardest fantasy matchup for QBs last year. Champ Bailey shut down Mike Sims-Walker on Sunday, and will make it a long day for Hasselbeck.

RBs

Jerome Harrison / Peyton Hillis (CLE RBs)
This situation is a mess. A lot of owners are starting Hillis after excitedly picking him up when they read about him in every fantasy site’s waiver column. Plus, he has an easy matchup against Kansas City. However, judging by week 1, KC may not be the same cakewalk it was last year. Also, we just don’t know how these backs will be used yet. I still think Harrison will have more value, and if I had to start one, I’d go with Harrison. But if I had any better options, I’d avoid these guys.

C.J. Spiller / Fred Jackson (BUF RBs)
Like the Cleveland backfield, this situation lacks clarity. College football fans may not be able to sit C.J. Spiller because they know what he’s capable of. But he hasn’t proven it in the NFL yet, and he’s sharing carries against a tough Green Bay defense.

Fred Taylor (NE RB)
We have been talking up Fred Taylor for a month now. You must add him if he’s available (which he is in a surprising amount of leagues). But this week is not his time. He’s a good flex start in nice matchups, but he’ll only get 15 or so carries on this passing team. 15 carries will not be enough for fantasy production against the Jets. Save him for next week against Buffalo.

Ricky Williams (MIA RB)
Williams got most of his carries on Sunday after Ronnie Brown did his damage including the TD. Williams will pound it out once Miami gets a lead. However, I don’t see Miami getting up big in this game against Minnesota. And of course, the Williams wall makes Minnesota the 2nd hardest run defense in the league.

WRs

Randy Moss (NE WR)
Check on Revis’s injury status before the game to make this decision. If Revis doesn’t play or is on a limited snap count, then you have to start Moss. But if Revis is all systems go, he will shut down Moss like he did in both games last year.

Jericho Cotchery / Braylon Edwards (NYJ WRs)
It’s a good matchup against New England, and Santonio Holmes isn’t available yet, so these two will get the most targets. That’s normally a recipe for success, but when the QB and WRs are bad at playing football, it’s not.

Lee Evans (BUF WR)
He’s the #1 option and has been getting it done for years. But Trent Edwards is just so bad. Only start Evans in great matchups. This week, he faces Green Bay’s above average secondary.

Mark Clayton (STL WR)
Clayton was a hot waiver wire add, and will be serviceable even if he doesn’t get 10 catches every week. But this week is not the week for Clayton. He will face a top three cornerback in Nnamdi Asomugha. Let’s hold off on Clayton for now.

Robert Meachem / Devery Henderson / Lance Moore (NO WRs)
Each of these guys is talented, and one of them will probably get 10 fantasy points, but how can you know who? Brees spreads the ball around too much, and SF has a solid defense (despite their horrendous week 1 showing).

Mike Williams (SEA WR)
Williams looks like the guy to own in Seattle’s receiving corp. But I’m not buying Seattle’s offense, despite their impressive week 1 performance. More importantly, Williams will face Denver’s Champ Bailey who shut down Mike Sims-Walker last week. (If Williams has a poor showing and is dropped in your league, pick him up because better days are ahead.)

TEs

John Carlson (SEA TE)
Again, I’m not buying Seattle as a top offense. Carlson will have to block and faces Denver, who allowed the 24th most points to TEs.

Mercedes Lewis (JAC TE)
Lewis put up a bunch of fantasy points in week 1, but it was on 2 catches for 2 TDs. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.

Jeremy Shockey (NO TE)
2/3 of the Earth is covered by water, the other 1/3 is covered by Patrick Willis. Shockey is not a huge part of the offense, and SF is top 3 against TEs.