Hot or Not - Week 1. (Start Jerome Harrison over Pierre Thomas)

As we said yesterday, the 1st week is not the time to get too crazy with sits and starts. You should generally go with the more talented player with more opportunities, in spite of the matchup. This applies especially if you drafted recently. If you drafted more than a week ago however, my number one piece of advice is don’t be afraid to start players that you drafted later, but have increased in value since then. With that in mind, here are a few Starts and Sits for those of you with difficult decisions. For your reference, I would roughly approximate that a Hot WR or RB will get you 75 total yards, a QB will get you 200 yards, and a TE will get you 50. Also, next to each matchup, I put the opponent's rank against that position last year, so Cutler vs. DET (1) means Detroit gave up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs last year.


HOT:

RBs:


Jerome Harrison vs. TB (7) – Not a household name yet, but he’s talented with no competition for caries against this weak defense.

Arian Foster vs. IND (12) - Ditto.

Darren McFadden vs. Ten (11) – Tennessee'd run D looks weak. But only start McFadden if Michael Bush is out.


Ricky Williams vs. BUF (3) – Williams will get just under half the carries in Miami, but that’s all he’ll need against this weak rush defense.

Tim Hightower vs. STL (4) – Hightower will technically “start” this game, and Beanie Wells is dinged up. I still expect an even split between the two backs, but I expect it to be 28–7 in the 4th quarter as Arizona rushes it out.


Cadillac Williams vs. CLE (5) – Williams slipped in drafts mostly because of fears that he’ll get injured. But he’s not injured yet. With Derrick Ward gone, Williams will do fine against this weak D.


QBs:

Jay Cutler vs. DET (1) – Despite Cutler’s awful preseason performance, he’s got the juiciest matchup to start the year.

Dennis Dixon vs. ATL (5) – If you took the risk on Dixon, now’s the time to use him against this weak defense. And he will add fantasy-valuable rushing yards to go along with the stats.

Kyle Orton vs. JAX (6) – Orton looked great in the preseason. If you’re in a deep league or went QB by committee, now’s a good time to try out Mr. Orton.


WRs:

Louis Murphy vs. TEN (1) – You probably picked Murphy up off the waiver wire, but now’s the perfect opportunity to see what he can do for your team.

Johnny Knox vs. DET (3) – I look forward to Knox’s coming out party against Detroit. I have Knox in many leagues and will start him over conventional WR1/2, Anquan Boldin.

Malcolm Floyd vs. KC (7) – This is a great opportunity to show off how good San Diego can be without Vincent Jackson. If Floyd does his best VJax impression, he should have no trouble toasting this secondary on Monday night.

Percy Harvin vs. NO (10) – Migraines aside, start Harvin with confidence. The coaches say Harvin will get plenty of looks as the #1 receiving target.


TEs:

Kellen Winslow vs. CLE (3)
Greg Olsen vs. DET (4)
Jeremy Shockey vs. MIN (5)
Zach Miller vs. TEN (8)


DEFs:

ARI vs. STL (1)
CHI vs. DET (2)
MIA vs. BUFF (4)
SD vs. KC (8)
CLE vs. TB (10)

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NOT:

RBs:

Pierre Thomas vs. MIN (31) – Sit Thomas if you have a decent alternative option. Thomas may only get 12 touches against the Williams wall. Reggie Bush looked plenty good in preseason and promises to be more than just a 3rd down back. With all that said, Thomas tore up the Vikings in the NFC championship game.

Fred Jackson vs. MIA (20) – FJax has a tough matchup and is coming off an injury.

Leon Washington / Justin Forsett vs. SF (21) – Both backs will eat into each other’s carries and face San Fran’s stout run D.



QBs:

Joe Flacco vs. NYJ (32) – I like Flacco a lot this season, but where I have any other decent option, I’ll wait on Flacco’s coming out party until after he faces Revis.

Chad Henne vs. BUF (31) – Henne was a trendy sleeper QB but this will not be his week.

Brett Favre vs. NO (28) – Favre always seems to perform on the national stage, so I hesitate to place him here. But New Orleans’ defense is legit.


WRs:

Anquan Boldin vs. NYJ (32) – It will be hard to sit Boldin since you likely drafted him as your first WR, but if you can squeeze any other good player in, avoid Boldin. He’ll be alone on Revis island all night on Monday.

Steve Smith / Hakeem Nicks vs. CAR (31) – I’m a little down on these players to begin with, and against this Defense, hopefully you have alternatives.

Santana Moss vs. DAL (26) - Moss may surprise people this year. But McNabb is just finally healthy and practicing with Moss, so give him some time.



TEs:


Owen Daniels vs. IND (32) – Daniels will be on a limited snap count week 1.
Todd Heap vs. NYJ (31)
John Carlson vs. SF (30) – Patrick Willis won’t let this guy do much.
Visanthe Shiancoe vs. NO (29)




DEFs:

CIN vs. NE (29)
MIN vs. NO (28)
PITT vs. ATL (25)