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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Sleepers and Comas
As draft time approaches, I know what you all want: sleepers and busts. You don't need all the intricate analysis; you need a list of players to try to draft as their names approach, and a list of players to avoid. So just for today, I'll go easy on the statistical analysis and heavy on the names. Tons of fantasy experts, gurus, prognosticators, and bullshitters have published their lists of sleepers. Today, I'm going to tell you which sleepers are legit (worth grabbing in 11th-15th round), and which to avoid because they'll never wake up. The latter "sleepers" are actually in comas. Sleepers today, Comas tomorrow.
SLEEPERS
Backup RBs:
Kareem Huggins: This impressive RB has just leapfrogged Derrick Ward to be the #2 back in Tampa. Do you really think Cadillac Williams will start 16 games this year? Huggins could possibly start to split the load with Caddy and have value even without a Caddy injury.
Jeremiah Johnson: The Houston 3rd string RB moves up with the departure of Ben Tate. Johnson has looked very good in preseason action. Plus, remember Steve Slaton 2 years ago? And Arian Foster last year? Both 3rd stringers who busted onto the scene. You can get Johnson in the very last round, or just monitor him on the waiver, but don't forget this man.
Keiland Williams: You'll find my love for this 5th string Washington RB here.
WR2s that have a passing game to support them:
Bernard Berrian: I began to write this piece last night, but after news that Sidney Rice will undergo surgery and be out until mid-season, Berrian's value shoots through the roof. Though he's never had a 1,000 yard season, Berrian is more than competent enough to take advantage of this golden opportunity. You might want to grab his as early as the 8th or 9th round if you draft now - if you draft in 2 weeks, you will have to get him earlier.
Pierre Garcon: He seems cemented into the #2 role in Indy. And if anyone can support 2 1,000 yard WRs and a 1,000 yard TE, Peyton Manning can. He is slipping way too far. Forget Collie and Gonzalez.
Jacoby Jones: Jones is a physical freak. He could overtake Kevin Walter as the #2 in Houston. Matt Schaub's prolific numbers should provide plenty to go around.
Nate Burleson: Burleson would have had a 1,000 yard season last year in Seattle but-for a late-season injury. I'm not ready to induct Matthew Stafford into the Hall of Fame just yet, but he looks to be taking a big leap this year. Yes, Megatron (Calvin Johnson) will get the most targets, but he will also be double-covered, allowing Burleson to put up good numbers.
Undervalued No-name WR1s:
These guys aren't proven stars yet, but their talent and opportunity tell me they are going too late in drafts.
Malcolm Floyd: Vjax looks like he's not coming back to San Diego, allowing Floyd to become the #1 guy with an elite QB in Phil Rivers.
Mike Wallace: Santonio Holmes is gone. Hines Ward is aging. Roethlisberger will be back, and will be good. Grab this deep threat.
Mike Williams: You'll find my crazy man-love for TB WR1 Mike Williams here. He's definitely the cheapest of this bunch too.
Quarterbacks With Weapons
Matthew Stafford: As mentioned above, Stafford is looking great. Through 2 preseason games, he is 21/29 for 191 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception. That looks like a pretty good statline that I expect to see out of an average Stafford game this year. He has Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler, and a pass-catching back Jahvid Best. This offense could go from 0 to 60.
Carson Palmer: It's trendy to hate on his limp arm. But the guy can still get it done. And who will defenses double-cover this year, Terrell Owens or Chad Ochocinco? Palmer has to produce with that duo at his disposal.
Joe Flacco: Flacco may not be a sleeper because he's going around 10th of QBs, but he belongs in this category because of his weapons. Flacco will choose from Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap, Donte Stallworth, and the RB with the most receptions last year, Ray Rice. Flacco is not a late-round guy, but someone you might grab in round 6 or 7 because I think he could take the next step into becoming an elite QB this year.
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5 comments:
I'd add Devin Thomas to the list of quality #2 guys. McNabb is a stud and can get the ball to all them.
staffor'ds horrible. period.
yay bernie b!
hey anonymous, stafford could be legit. just grab him close to the end of the draft. wait 2 weeks and see what happens.
i say vince young. sleepiest sleeper of them all. will put up huge numbers. this blog is awesome!
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