Monday, August 30, 2010

RB Situations (NFC)

People often ask me, "So, what's the situation in Seattle? Is Forsett the guy?" or "Why is Kevin Smith going so low? What's the situation in Detroit?" Our Top 200 Rankings reflect where one guy is a starter and the other is the handcuff (AP#2 and Toby Gerhart#154), or when two guys are in an even timeshare (Felix Jones#55 and Marion Barber#57). But it's still helpful to visualize the situations in each team's backfield.

We have compiled every team's official depth chart, and examined the local beat-writers who have an inside scoop on how the coach actually plans to use the RBs (sometimes in spite of the "official depth chart"). We came up with the chart below. Note how few "workhorses" there are any more - guys who start all 3 downs and get goal line carries. A "starter" is the first guy on the field who will get the clear majority of touches, but will often step out on 3rd down or at the goal line. And then you've got "committees" or timeshares. AFC is coming tomorrow. I will update the situations going forward, and throughout the season.



Team Workhorse/
Starter/
Committee
3rd Down Back Goal Line Back Handcuff Notes
ARZ  Chris "Beanie" Wells Tim Hightower Tim Hightower
I am a little worried about the entire Arizona offense because of their QB situation.
SF
Frank Gore Frank Gore / Brian Westbrook Frank Gore Anthony Dixon Westbrook will be used to relieve Gore on occasion, but if Gore misses time, Dixon will probably be the guy you want because Westbrook is too old and brittle to be an every-down back.
STL
Steven Jackson Steven Jackson Steven Jackson Kenneth Darby / Chris Ogbonnaya If Steven Jackson were on any other team, even a bad team, but not the worst team (St. Louis), he would be a consensus top-3 pick. Very scary back-up situation though.
SEA Leon Washington / Julius Jones / Justin Forsett Justin Forsett Julius Jones
This is a mess of a committee. I definitely like Washington's value comparative to his ADP the most at this point.
TB Carnell Williams Kareem Huggins Carnell Williams Kareem Huggins Derrick Ward has really fallen off the wagon. You know I like Huggins as a very late sleeper.
NO Pierre Thomas Reggie Bush Pierre Thomas
Bush has looked very sharp in the preseason. I'm not ready to call this a committee yet, but Bush should get 10-13 touches per game, which makes him startable.
CAR DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart DeAngelo Williams Jonatha Stewart
The only committee with both backs worth playing over most starters. I really like Stewart's value comparative to his ADP.
ATL Michael Turner Turner / Jerious Norwood Michael Turner Jason Snelling Should Turner get injured again, Snelling is the handcuff, not Norwood. If you're a cautious owner, get Snelling if you get Turner.
NYG
Ahmad Bradshaw / Brandon Jacobs Danny Ware Brandon Jacobs
Bradshaw is actually listed as the #1. I don't know who will have more value in the end, but I prefer Jacobs in the 7th round over Bradshaw in the 5th or 6th. Danny Ware is technically the 3rd down back, but won't see much action unless there's an injury.
DAL Felix Jones / Marion Barber Felix Jones Marion Barber Tashard Choice

Jones is going a few spots before Barber, which seems about right given his explosiveness. Both haven't impressed in preseason.
WAS Clinton Portis Clinton Portis Clinton Portis Larry Johnson / Ryan Torain / Keiland Williams Larry Johnson is the #2 guy and I can envision a scenario in which he is valuable. But I’m not excited about drafting LJ. Portis will be a steal at his ADP of #87 if he stays healthy all season. I think Williams will emerge at some point this season.
PHI LeSean McCoy LeSean McCoy Mike Bell / Leonard Weaver Mike Bell McCoy will likely get less carries than most other starters because Bell, Weaver, and even Mike Vick will steal some carries, especially on the goal line.
GB
Ryan Grant Ryan Grant / Brandon Jackson Ryan Grant Brandon Jackson Jackson is a good pass-catcher, but Grant often stays in on 3rd downs. I like Grant to fly a little under the radar in a crazy strong offense.
MIN Adrian Peterson Adrian Peterson Adrian Peterson Toby Gerhart AP will really run All Day now that prototypical 3rd down back, Chester Taylor, is gone. Toby Gerhart seems to have beaten Albert Young for the #2 job.
DET Jahvid Best Jahvid Best Jerome Felton Kevin Smith Many will disagree with my labeling Smith a mere handcuff. Smith will have significant value as a handcuff should Best get injured, but Smith's 3.4 YPC last year isn't impressing me.
CHI Matt Forte Chester Taylor Matt Forte
Taylor got paid a lot and will be more than a handcuff. But I don't see his role being much bigger than it was in Minnesota.

7 comments:

Jessica M said...

Wow this rocks!

FinsBoy said...

i think arizona is gonna suck this year too. i dont like any of their fantasy guys

Anonymous said...

Should I always handcuff my starting runningbacks?

Vikes said...

You don't NEED to handcuff, especially if you have o burn an early pick for him. i like turner and snelling late. i dont like taking bernard scott and chester taylor and willis mcgahee cuz you gotta get em so early.

Anonymous said...

Is that Jessica Meduro? I think I was in a league with you once - are you doing the Vegas expert draft this weekend?

DaBears said...

Forte is the MAAAAANNNNN!

Kevin Smith for MVP!!!! said...

Not impressed with his 3.4 YPC? I'd like to see what kind of yardage YOU could rack up! Do not belittle the future hall of famer!!!

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