Now that the third preseason game "dress rehearsal" is complete, the sample size is getting big enough to make some inferences. Don't rearrange your whole draft board based on this data, but here are some interesting stats from the 1st 3 games.
1) Here are the top 7 QBs in completion percentage
1) Jake Delhomme 79.2%
2) Tom Brady 78.6%
3) Aaron Rodgers 77.4%
4) Matthew Stafford 73.9%
5) David Garrard 71.4%
6) Carson Palmer 70.4%
7) Matt Schaub 68.9%
8) Kyle Orton 68.6%
Brady, Rodgers, and Schaub are no surprise, and should all safely be drafted as top 5 QBs off the board. Note that Stafford, Orton, and Palmer are actually having terrific preseasons. They are all top 8 in QB Rating too and are my favorite backup QBs to draft.
2) Jay Cutler is 19/37 for a mediocre 51.4% completion percentage, with 1 TD and 2 Interceptions. Cutler was also sacked nine times in the first 2 preseason games. With Mike Martz calling the shots, Cutler could be a top 5 QB or outside the top 20.
3) The following are the top yards-per-carry for Runningbacks that anyone's heard of (meaning they're fantasy relevant).
1) Frank Gore 29.0 (2-58)
2) Matt Forte 10.2 (12-122)
3) Jahvid Best 8.6 (15-129)
4) Jamaal Charles 6.9 (15-103)
5) Joseph Addai 6.0 (14-84)
6) Arian Foster 6.0 (28-169)
7) LaDainian Tomlinson 5.9 (22-129)
8) Sammy Morris 5.8 (11-64)
9) Reggie Bush 5.5 (15-82)
4) Impressive Sleeper Backup RBs
I'm planting my flag in Keiland Williams (WAS), Kareem Huggins (TB), and Jeremiah Johnson (HOU). These guys will be hot waiver wire adds at some point this season. Mark my words. Huggins is the only one that you should consider drafting now, especially in 14 team leagues.
Keiland Williams has a Yards-Per-Carry of 4.0 (17-68) with 2 TDs, and has 5 catches for 68 yards.
Compare that to his competition: Ryan Torain has a 3.1 YPC, Larry Johnson has a 2.7 YPC, and Clinton Portis has a 4.3 YPC but is the only man standing in the way of Williams starting in my opinion.
Kareem Huggins has a 5.1 YPC (19-97), and 2 catches for 16 yards.
Compare that to his competition: Cadillac Williams has a 3.1 YPC, and Derrick Ward is even worse at 2.4.
Jeremiah Johnson has a 5.4 YPC (16-87), and a 6 yard catch.
Compare that to his competition: Steve Slaton has a 2.8 YPC, and Chris Henry has 2.0. Arian Foster is looking like a stud. You definitely cannot call him a sleeper anymore. He should probably be drafted above all the committee guys meaning I'd take Foster above Barber and Jacobs, and would place him just outside Jahvid Best and Matt Forte. But as mentioned, it seems like the 3rd stringer always emerges for Houston (see Steve Slaton in '08 and Foster in '09). And this offense will clearly be firing on all cylinders this season.
5) Felix Jones has a YPC of 2.3 (9-21), and Marion Barber is even worse at 1.9 (12-23). Barber impressed in camp lowering the value of Jones. If this becomes an even timeshare, I don't want part in either back.
6) Brandon Jacobs has a YPC of 4.3 (10-43). Ahmad Bradshaw is at 3.1 (16-49). Despite Jacobs' clear statistical edge, the experts at Rotoworld and ESPN continue to sing Bradshaw's praises as the "superior runner." I don't buy that. Jacobs will be a more productive fantasy RB - it just depends when you can get him in the draft.
7) Jermichael Finley is a BEAST. He leads all Tight Ends with 12 catches for 163 yards and 2 TDs. You'd be lucky to grab him as the 5th TE off the board, because I wouldn't be surprised if he ended the year as the #1.
8) Speaking of that high flying Green Bay offense, Greg Jennings leads all WRs (that matter) in average yards per catch with 31.0 (4 recs for 124 yards and a TD).
9) It shouldn't surprise you that deep threat Mike Wallace (PIT) is #2 in yards per catch at 30.3 (3-91, and a TD).
10) Louis Murphy has 6 catches for 154 yards and a TD. With Schilens' injury, Murphy is the Oakland receiver to grab late in your draft.
11) My other favorite sleeper, Mike Williams (TB) has 7 catches for 157 yards. Draft him.
12) Jacoby Jones has 12 catches for 131 yards and a TD. (His competition Kevin Walter has 3 catches for 65 yards.) Even if Walter nominally holds onto the #2 role, Jones is the guy you want.
15 comments:
Jake Delhomme is number 1 in stats for right now?! ...that confirms preseason is a joke. Counting down the days to the real thing!
I agree that you shouldn't draft Delhomme over Schaub--but preseason is great for comparing guys on the same team. You can see how they look and how they're being used by the coaches. This article does a great job of highlighting those valuable stats.
What do you mean "you don't want part in either back" in Dallas? Even if it were 50-50 timeshare, each would probably be startable as a flex?
@Anonymous, that's a good point. It was an oversimplification to say I don't want either guy. I hate when other analysts say "I'm not touching Clinton Portis this year," when in reality, they mean to say that Portis is over-valued. I also am not excited about getting Portis in the 5th or 6th round, but I would definitely grab him in the 10th. So yes, I would take Barber or Jones if the price was right.
i get what you're saying about some of these stats but guys like mike williams and all your super sleeper runningbacks are going against second and third string defenses, i know they also have second and third string lines blocking for them but i still don't think it's anything worth even altering your draft strategy
How are people valuing Matt Forte this year?
3 quick thoughts
1. @The Truth: that's a very fair point. But I'm not saying to use a 10th round draft pick on Johnson, Huggins, or Williams. I'm saying maybe your last round pick on Huggins. It's not that these guys are so talented that the coaches will bench Portis, Foster, or Cadillac Williams for them. It's more likely that one of those starters will get injured and these backups will be impact players right away (but you don't have to spend an early pick on these handcuffs). And without an injury, it's still possible that one of these sleepers plays so well that they start to split carries.
2. @Anonymous: Forte is being undervalued. As I see it, he should be going around the bottom of the workhorses, but above all the committee guys. That means around Jahvid Best and Joseph Addai, but above all the Miami, Dallas, and NYG backs.
Forte actually finished 17th among RBs last year. His average draft position this year is around the 20th RB. This doesn't make sense. I think last year was his floor, and his ceiling was in '08 when he finished as the 3rd best RB. I'll gladly draft Forte at or slightly before his ADP.
3. Mike Wallace added another 3 catches for 59 yards tonight!
hello together, I would love to receive some help from you ASAP! The draft in my league is over and Mike Williams TB WR is a FA. I'd like to pick him up, but I don't know which player to drop. I'm in a PPR-League that starts 2 RB/3WR & 1 RB/WR Flex. The players on the fringe are: WR's Kenny Britt & Dez Bryant; RB's Jerome Harrison, Reggie Bush & Kevin Smith DET. Any fast help would be appreciated!
Greetings from Switzerland
Moe
I would drop Kevin Smith for him. Kenny Britt is getting close to droppable, but I would say Smith for now. Best of luck!
definitely going with Kevin Smith.
I think he's a dark horse to be a top 20 player this year.
I love Javid Best - but he can't carry the load (nor SHOULD he!).
Kevin Smith for MVPPPPPPPPP
Mike Wallace looked great with big Ben at the helm but is he going to struggle thru the first six weeks (including bye) with dixon and leftwich?
Why do you have such confidence in Brandon Jacobs? I had him on 2 fantasy teams last year. His numbers were far below expectations. His YPC dropped from 5.0 (2008) to 3.7 (2009). The other experts claim that Jacobs is too tentative and lacks explosiveness. Do you see something they don't see?
quick poll:
favorite cereal mascot:
a) the cookie crisp dog
b) the trix rabbit
c) the lucky charms lep
Throwback: Cookie Crisp Wizard Coooooooooooookie crisp!!!!!!
@anonymous
I've also been burned by Brandon Jacobs overhyped production, but he's going closer to where he belongs in drafts now whereas bradshaw seems to be going too early. Jacobs is also the bigger back which ought to translate into goal line carries. I view him as a Marion barber circa 2007 with a lot of short yardage tds but capable of posting some crappy weeks in which he doesn't get any goal line carries and only a handful of short yardage pickups
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