Monday, September 12, 2011

Working the Waiver


Fear this beard, baby!

You’ve drafted a solid team, finding bargains everywhere you could. You didn’t get too cute in week one and started your studs. (I specifically tweeted that you should start Ray Rice and Miles Austin despite their touch matchups. That worked out well.) Your work is not yet done. A good manager is an active manager. So here are the guys who are likely available in your league that could make a difference for you:

QUARTERBACKS

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Owned in 48% of Yahoo leagues.)
Fitzpatrick was 17/25 for 208 yards and 4 TDs. Of these three QBs, I would most want Fitpatrick just because he’s done it before. If you extrapolate the 13 games Fitzpatrick played last year across 16 games, he would have been a top ten fantasy QB. I like the Harvard man to surprise us by quietly finishing the year with a very nice season once again.


Cam Newton (41%)
Newton had a phenomenal debut, going 24/37 for 411 passing yards, 2 TDs, and an interception, plus 8 carries for 18 yards and a TD. There is big upside here, and Newton should have some big games. But he won’t get to face the Cardinals every week. If you already have an elite QB, it’s probably not worth dropping one of your upside guys for Newton. However, if you have Sam Bradford or Peyton Manning, then you have to make room for the potential that this was not a fluke, and Newton proves to be a Mike Vick-light-light. I like Steve Smith and Greg Olsen quite a bit, and so does Newton apparently.

Rex Grossman (7%)
Grossman went 21/34 for 305 yards and 2 TDs for a very solid QB Rating of 110.5. Just like Newton, Grossman used his #1 WR and TE early and often – Santana Moss and Fred Davis in his case. I’d rather have Newton, but Grossman could surprise us with some nice games this year. In deep leagues, Grossman could certainly prove to be a top 16 fantasy QB by year’s end.

RUNNINGBACKS

Darren Sproles (61%)
If you’re in a serious league, I would be surprised if Sproles wasn’t already owned. But if he’s available, he’s my top RB pickup because he is not just a stopgap; he should have solid value all season long. The Saints will not be playing from behind too often, but we saw how heavily Brees relied on Sproles while running the hurry-up offense. Sproles had 7 catches for 75 yards and the return for a TD. He won’t be an every-week play, but Mr. Lightening-In-A-Bottle will be a sneaky flex play when bye weeks hit.

Cadillac Williams (15%)
When Steven Jackson left the game with a quad injury, Williams took over with 91 yards on the ground, and 6 receptions for 49 yards. The oft-injured SJax is likely out at least one week, if not significantly more than that. The problem is Williams is not the model of durability himself, and faces the Giants and Ravens in the next two weeks. Still, it seems clear that he has plenty left in the tank, and the Rams are willing to make him the feature back for the time being. Reports on Bradford and Amendola’s injuries are looking better than we initially feared so hopefully Williams won’t see many 8-men-in-the-box defenses. I’m certainly dropping some free agent auction bucks on Williams this week.

Ben Tate (45%)
With both Foster and Ward out of the game, Tate ran for 116 yards and a TD. His value is completely contingent on Foster’s health because a healthy Foster is too good for a committee. If Foster is out again, Tate will be a decent start against Miami next week.

Delone Carter (20%)
Carter had 7 carries to Addai’s 8 on Sunday. I initially praised him as a valuable sleeper handcuff with Addai’s injury history. Now, it is conceivable that Carter could have committee value even without an Addai injury. Still, neither Colts back looks startable until we see the Colts get their act together – which, to be fair, could certainly happen because Kerry Collins has only had a few weeks to learn this complicated offense.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Robert Meachem (57%)
Even with Colston healthy for most of the game, Meachem was able to catch 5 balls for 70 yards a TD. With Colston out for several weeks due to a broken collarbone, Meachem will be the number one guy in the Saints. Need I say more. If he’s available in your league, he’s the number one waiver wire pickup. I don’t have to worry about exactly how much to bid on Meachem though, because I already own him in every league I’m in.

Devery Henderson (27%)
Henderson had 6 catches for 100 yards and a TD on Thursday. I like him almost as much as Meachem, until Lance Moore returns.

Mohamed Massaquoi (7%)
Massaquoi caught 3 of Colt McCoy’s passes for 77 yards. He is probably fool’s gold, but worth a look in deep leagues. He’s competing with Greg Little and Joshua Cribbs to be McCoy’s favorite WR, and competing with Evan Moore and Ben Watson on top of that to be McCoy’s favorite target.

Emmanuel Sanders (13%) and Antonio Brown (26%)
It’s hard to know which of these two is going to separate himself and grab hold of that valuable WR3 job in Pittsburgh (which is, in effect, the WR2 job due to an ageing Hines Ward.) They both had 2 catches, while Sanders had a slightly better statistical day with 20 yards a TD, compared to Brown’s 14 yards. Here’s why I still like my deep sleeper, Brown, more: Brown got 9 targets yesterday, compared to just 3 for Sanders. It’s hard to get excited over two guys competing for the #3 job, especially after watching how badly Pittsburgh’s O-line struggled, but they should both be owned in deeper leagues for their upside.

TIGHT ENDS

Fred Davis (3%)
Davis led the Redskins with 5 catches for 105 yards. Chris Cooley has admitted that the knee is likely to bother him all season. Rex Grossman has declared that he plans to use plenty of two TE sets this year, so I don’t think this was a total fluke. Again, this goes to show you how deep the TE position is this year. If you drafted Greg Olsen in the last round like we recommended, good for you – hold onto him. If you drafted Jared Cook like we recommended, sorry about that – but grab Fred Davis instead!

Honorable Mention TEs

Ed Dickson (4%)
5 catches for 59 yards and a TD.

Jermaine Gresham (16%)
6 catches for 58 yards and a TD.

Evan Moore (2%)
3 catches for 35 yards and a TD.

Ben Watson (15%)
3 catches for 45 yards and a TD.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

No love for this Big Game out of the Stanford guy on Seattle - Baldwin??

The Champ said...

no love for anyone on Seattle

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