Why You Wait on Kickers and Defenses

Wait until the last two rounds to draft your Kicker and Defense. If Green Bay, Pittsburgh, or The Jets are available in the 13th round, I’d probably take them, but they are never around at that point, so again: Wait until the last two rounds to draft your Kicker and Defense.

We subscribe to the theory of Value Based Drafting, in which the value of a player is determined by his relative value to other players started at that position. Thus, a player's VBD score is the difference between his points and the worst starter at that position. In 2010, the #1 Defense (PIT) scored 53 more points than the #12 Defense (DET). In 2009, the #1 Defense (SF) scored 47 more points than the #12 Defense (CIN). In 2010, the #1 Kicker (Janikowski) had 36 more points that the #12 Kicker (Bironas). In 2009, the #1 Kicker (Kaeding) scored 42 more points than the #12 Kicker (Lindell). 

  

A VBD of about 40 means these top Kickers and Defenses are actually in pretty good company – around Knowshon Moreno and Matt Schaub last year. But that is based on the theory that you should draft Moreno and Janikowski at the same point because if you draft Moreno, you can pick up the best Kicker on the waiver wire and he'll be approximately equal to the worst starting Kicker, which is probably true. But if you draft Janikowski at that point, you cannot pick up the best RB off the waiver wire and think he will be approximately equal to the worst starting RB. This is because in most leagues, the 13th best Kicker is a Free Agent but the 31st best RB is owned. And so are the next 2 or 3 dozen RBs. But theoretically, the values of Moreno and Janikowski are equal if you could forecast accurate player projections such that your first 9 picks would be your starting roster each week and your bench would be meaningless.

The other issue of course, is that you can never predict exactly how the players will turn out. In 2009, only 3 of the top 10 drafted Defenses finished in the top 10 in points at the end of the year (NYJ, PHI, BAL), while 6 of the top 10 drafted Kickers finished in the top 10 in points at the end of the year (Gostkowski, Bironas, Akers, Kaeding, Longwell, Crosby). In 2010, only 2 of the top 10 predraft Kickers finished the year as top 10 Kickers, while 5 predraft top 10 Defenses finished the year as top 10 Defenses. Moreover, of the predraft consensus #1 fantasy Defenses of the past 5 years, only 2 finished in the top 10 defenses by the end of the year ('06 Bears and '10 Jets). A fantasy defense can sink or swim based on the defensive coordinator, the schedule of opponents, or the success of a single cornerback or linebacker. Defenses are probably also the most matchup-sensitive spot on your roster.

Although Kickers and Defenses get no love from Fantasy gurus, they certainly can make a difference. I've always monitored the free agent Kickers and Defenses because so few others do.  The completion of Week 3 is typically a fair point to gauge the success of Kickers and Defenses, so if mine is a total dud, I always check if the #1 Kicker or Defense at that point is a free agent, and then I'll gladly make the switch. Other managers will ask you, "Why are you wasting your time making free agent pickups for KICKERS?!?" They will quiet down when you walk away with the championship.

But again, wait until the last two rounds to draft your Kicker and Defense.