Judge Me By This

Fantasy experts are generally too quick to take credit for accurately predicting the breakouts and collapses of players, which they never really explicitly predicted. ESPN’s Matthew Berry, for example, will list pros and cons of a player so that he can point to those pros if the player does well, and point to the cons if the player doesn’t, and then say, “You’re welcome!” I could say, Mark Ingram will share a significant chunk of carries with Pierre Thomas, but that he will be solid at the goalline. Then in Week 7, if Ingram is the second coming of Purple Jesus aka Adrian Peterson, I can say “See! I told you he would be great at the goalline!” and if he eats sh%t, I can say, “See! I told you he wouldn’t get enough carries to be a top back!” Thus, I’m not going to sit on the fence on these guys. I’m going to take a clear stance on a few players so in Week 7, we can look back and hopefully recognize my unambiguous genius, and/or potentially recognize that I should stick to my day job and forget about fantasy football prognostication. Ingram, incidentally, is being drafted fairly. But in my not very humble opinion, others are still underrated or overrated based on their Average Draft Position (ADP), and I want you to judge me later based on these predictions.

Vick and Rodgers Exchange Smiles, Knowing That FFMVP Endorses Them.

QUARTERBACKS

Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers Will Not Embarrass You For Drafting Them In The First Round.

Vick’s ADP of 7 and Aaron Rodgers’ ADP of 10 may fly in the face of the traditional mantra of getting elite RBs in the first round, but they’re uniquely incredible players. Rodgers has improved his completion percentage in each of his three years since he began starting for The Pack, with 32, 35, and 32 TDs - a handful of which came on the ground each year. With a healthy Jermichael Finley, there’s no reason to doubt Rodgers’ ability to continue earning enough points to put him so far ahead of the rest of the QB Pack that he’s worth the late first round pick.

Let me tell you about Value Based Drafting (VBD). You need to evaluate players based on positional scarcity and the fantasy points a player gets as compared to the next best replacement, rather than just looking at total points. If you looked at total points alone, then you should draft Eli Manning above Adrian Peterson. That would be dumber than tweeting pictures of your junk to girls who are not your wife -  sorry Brett Favre and Anthony Weiner. Instead, VBD looks at a player’s fantasy points compared to the worst starter to get a sense of his relative advantage. Let’s assume a standard 12 team league. Rodgers had 85 more fantasy points than the 12th best QB (Flacco). MJD had about 85 points more than the worst starting RB (Ryan Torain at 30th) and Calvin Johnson had about 85 more fantasy points than the worst starting WR (Deion Branch at 30th). Thus, it makes sense to draft Rodgers around the same time as you would draft MJD and Calvin Johnson because they all give you about the same advantage over their replacements at the position. And whattaya know!?! Their 3 ADPs are all roughly the same! It kinda makes sense!

The Fantasy Football Guys advocate a “Magic Formula” in which you must take the elite RBs early and pass up on QBs. They say an elite RB gets you several more points each week than an average RB, whereas Mike Vick only scored 4 points more per week than Matt Schaub. That’s true… if you decided to start Vick when it was announced that he would be out with an injury. (Perhaps you were mourning Vick’s injury, and thought it would be disrespectful to start a waiver pickup in his place.) But if you consider that Vick only played 11 full games and Schaub played 16, then Vick actually got on average 14 more fantasy points per week than Schaub. That’s like starting Schaub and getting to add an entire Steven Jackson or MJD to him – then you get Mike Vick. If you prorate his averages across 16 games, Vick’s VBD would crush every player in the game. But of course, his health is the big risk. That’s why rather than drafting him first overall, a late first round pick is a fair fit.  If he comes close to what he did last year, and misses two or three games, I’ll still be one happy camper!

Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford Will Outperform Josh Freeman

That is to say, I’m high on Stafford and Bradford (The Fords! I like Jacoby FORD too coincidentally.) And I’m low on Freeman. This situation in the 9th round somewhat mirrors the aforementioned first round situation – drafting Vick and Stafford for the upside is not for the faint of heart, while Rodgers and Stafford are the safer picks in their respective rounds. Freeman is being drafted above both Stafford and Bradford. I expect Freeman’s rushing TDs to increase, and his incredible TD : Interception ratio to come back down to earth. Moreover, Freeman has been bad in the preseason, with a low yards-per-attempt and no TDs. Meanwhile, Stafford has been sublime, with an impressive yards-per-attempt and 5 TDs with zero interceptions. Bradford looks solid going 24/43 with 4 TDs (and 2 Ints) and has Josh McDaniels who just made a star out of a weaponless Kyle Orton. He can do it in St. Louis too.

Tony Romo Will Surpass His ADP

Romo is being drafted as the 7th best QB but I guarantee he will finish better than that. I don’t know which of the elite 6 QBs he’ll surpass, so I’m not saying you should draft him above Tom Brady. Yet I think he’s roughly equal to Brees, Rivers, and Brady, but you can get him two rounds later. Quite simply, Romo has the best combination of Top 3 receivers in the league. Rivers has VJax and Gates. Not bad. Vick has Maclin and DeSean. Nice. But Romo has Bryant, Austin, and Witten. He can close his eyes and toss the ball and one of these incredible receivers will come up with it.

RUNNINGBACKS

Felix Is So Happy To Be On The List, He's Going To Do The YMCA!

Felix Jones Will Breakout This Year

This may not be super controversial, but I do think he will surpass his ADP as the 18th RB off the board, and that’s how I’m deciding to make these calls – If I’m confident that a guy will be better or worse than his ADP, I want to make my mark on him. It’s the fantasy equivalent of peeing on the ground to mark your territory, though I’d be quite scared to try to pee on Felix, as he could probably take me. He’s looked electric in the preseason, he has zero competition, and as mentioned, he’s on an incredible offense.

Mike Tolbert Is A Better Value Than Ryan Mathews

We’ve talked ad nauseam about the Chargers backfield, but suffice it to say, I’ll pass on Mathews at his 4th round ADP and happily snag Tolbert in the 7th.

Pierre Thomas Lives!

People are writing off P.T. after a very frustrating 2010. Let’s not forget that he’s technically listed as the starting RB on one of the league’s most potent offenses. I’m not necessarily down on Ingram, because I think there’s plenty of fantasy goodness to go around in New Orleans. Thomas is being drafted as the 37th best RB, and he will be better than that.

Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower Will Be Solid RB2s

I group them together because they are both average talents, formerly teammates, and now find themselves as the feature backs on bad teams. Of all RBs, Wells is going 26th and Hightower is going 28th. I’d take them earlier because they will both be better than these guys who are being drafted before them: Ryan Mathews (duh), Ryan Grant, Cedric Benson, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Your draftboard may have these two gents buried, so you may be able to steal them later, but don’t get too greedy. Pull that trigger.

Ray Rice Is The Friggin Man

Despite his slow start, Rice managed the third most yards from scrimmage in the league last year. He averaged 110 yards per game. Even though it seemed like he was allergic to TDs and McGahee was relieving him too often, somehow, with a few nice runs and catches, Rice got you the yards to remain competitive. This year, McGahee the TD vulture is gone and Vonta Leach has arrived to clear big holes for Rice. I’ll take him third overall in standard leagues and first overall in PPR leagues.

Delone Carter Will Be The Starting RB for the Colts

That is to say, I believe that Carter will leapfrog Donald Brown on the depth chart, and that Joseph Addai will miss some time. I’ve written about my bromance for Carter before.

The Panthers RBs Are Overrated

Crappy QB. Crappy team. Timeshare.

Plus, Mike Goodson will potentially steal some touches of his own. Both backs are incredibly talented and would excel as feature backs on any other offense. If there’s an injury, then one or the other will have a huge opportunity. But the same could be said about Jason Snelling or Isaac Redman. DWilly and JStew are not falling in drafts to rounds where I would take them. 

Judge me by the WRs and TEs I discuss tomorrow!