10 Lessons From The First Week of Preseason

  

It is an oft-repeated fantasy mantra that "You cannot read too much into preseason games." The sample size is incredibly small, an impressive performance may be against a third string defense, coaches employ a limited playbook as they wish to keep some plays secret, and tough players may run out of bounds to avoid a tackle when they would never do so in the regular season. So the fact that Drew Brees was 1 for 4 in his first game doesn’t mean you can expect a 25% completion percentage from him throughout the regular season. But other situations are more ambiguous, and if all we have to go with come draft day is coach-speak and camp reports, we may as well look to their preseason performances too to make an informed decision. At the end of the four weeks, an RB’s yards-per-carry can in fact be quite telling. So here are 10 things I noticed in Week 1:

1.     Vick’s Still Got It

Mike Vick looked terrific in his limited action, going 4 for 6 with 74 yards and a TD to Brent Celek. Notably, he didn’t log a single rush attempt. The Eagles will be especially cautious in the pre-season, but even in the regular season, they will protect his health so I expect less rushing from Vick and more precision passing. Perhaps this means fewer 50 point games from Vick, but I’ll take a full season of 35 point games from him with no complaints.

2.     Josh Freeman Rushes For A TD

Freeman likely cannot be called a sleeper while he is being drafted 11^th overall among QBs, but I still like him this year. Sure, he will not repeat his remarkable TD : Interception ratio from last year, but this young offense can only get better overall. Last year, Freeman had the 2^nd most rushing yards among QBs behind only Michael Vick. Yet those 364 rushing yards came with zero rushing TDs. I expect those rushing yards to stay about the same, and for him to add three or four TDs on the ground. That may not sound like much, but that’s the fantasy equivalent of improving by 600 passing yards. Freeman was 9 for 13 for 73 yards this past weekend, and added a five-yard rushing TD. Sprinkle a few of those throughout the regular season and he’s a guaranteed Top Ten QB.

3.     Rashad Jennings Rushes Six Times for Twenty-Eight Yards

That’s not eye-popping, but a worthwhile reminder that Jennings is incredibly capable when called upon. With MJD’s nagging injury, Jennings is probably the most valuable “handcuff” in the league.

4.     Stevan Ridley Puts On A Show

Third round rookie, Stevan Ridley, rushed 16 times for 64 yards and 2 TDs, and hauled in 7 catches for 47 yards and a TD. That would be good for a 29 point fantasy game! He was immediately added in one of my fantasy leagues. However, keep in mind it was against a backup defense and New England’s backfield is always an unpredictable mess. I’m not touching this guy in my drafts. However, should BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Shane Vereen go down in the middle of the season, I will remember the talent and potential of Stevan Ridley when adding him from the waiver.

5.     Mike Tolbert Draws The Start Over Ryan Matthews

Matthews’ ADP has dropped 7 spots over the last two weeks (from 34 to 41). Meanwhile, Mike Tolbert’s value has risen 18 spots (106 to 88). The gap between the two has not closed enough yet. Coach Turner has made it clear that he plans to rotate the two backs in a “one-two punch.”  Furthermore, Tolbert started the game, was spelled by Matthews, and then returned in the redzone to score the TD. They had similar stats with only 3 touches each, so I’m not advocating their ADPs should be reversed (i.e. take Tolbert in the 4^th round.) But given the likelihood that their final production will be equal, I’d much rather pay an 8^th round price than a 4^th price for that production.

6.     Rivers and Vincent Jackson Look Terrific

Rivers was 5 for 6 with 87 yards and a TD. VJax hauled in 2 catches for 54 yards. Rivers is at the top of his game and we saw him make a star out of every no-name receiver he worked with last year. Rivers and VJax could be insanely good this season.

7.     Matthew Stafford Confirms His Potential

Matthew Stafford was 6 for 7 with 72 yards and 2 TDs. That doesn’t allay my concerns for his ability to stay healthy for 16 games. But it does remind me of his incredible potential if he does stay healthy for 16 games. His two TDs were to Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson.

8.     Tim Hightower Holds Onto The Starter’s Gig

Ryan Torain is still sidelined with a broken hand – do you really need both hands to carry the ball? Tim Hightower is listed atop the depth chart, started the game, ran 10 times for 44 yards, and added one catch for 8 yards. There is a low ceiling given Hightower’s talent and the miserable offense he plays on, but the starting job is his to lose, so I’ll gladly take him at his current ADP in the 11^th round.

9.     Mark Ingram Scores His First NFL Touchdown

Ingram carried the ball 6 times for 23 yards, and added a highlight reel TD run in which he spun around and impressively kept his balance. His Yards Per Carry is not incredible, but neither was Pierre Thomas’s (4 carries for 8 yards).

10. Greg Olsen Benefits From His New Uniform

Olsen was an afterthought in Mike Martz’s system last year, which rarely employs the TE. Now on the Panthers, he caught 3 balls for 58 yards and a TD. Jimmy Clausen and Cam Newton both liked him, and will likely rely on him as a safety blanket. The sleeper potential is strong here. Panthers offensive coordinator, Rob Chudzinski played TE for the University of Miami, and was the TE coach of Antonio Gates. Olsen’s going in the 13^th round. If I miss out on the elite guys, I plan to wait until the end and grab Olsen before snagging my Defense and Kicker in the final 3 rounds.